最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段法国绝大多数25岁以下的人都投票给Le Pen.。
来源片段I gather that the overwhelming majority of under 25s in France are voting Le Pen.
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There were, after the fall of the Napoleon III, there was a Third Republic, 1870 to 1940. That basically was ended with the collapse in 1940 against the Nazis in World War II.
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成为了拿破仑三世这个拿破仑被搞下台之后呢，法兰西成立了第三共和国，法兰西第三共和国比较稳定，从1870年一直撑到了1940年。
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But de Gaulle was the sort of face of the liberation and of defiance during the Second World War. And the face of France, really, wasn't it?
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他对于法国人来说，在二战期间是法国解放和反抗纳粹暴政的代表。戴高尔。对于那个时候的法国人来说，他代表的是一个没有被德国强奸的。法国。
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But de Gaulle had sort of flounced out of French politics at the end of the war in 1946, partly because the Fourth Republic was going to have a very weak presidency, and it was going to basically be a sort of parliamentary republic in which the Prime Minister held all the power.
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戴高尔在1946年二战结束的时候，就退出了法国政坛。部分。
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The Fifth Republic comes into being in 1958, and it is associated very much with de Gaulle, and it's created in the crisis surrounding the Algerian War of Independence.
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所以我们话说到这个诞生于1958年的，现在的法兰西第五共和国，他的诞生就和戴高尔有着密切的联系。
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So France is torn apart by the Algerian crisis.
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那个时候，法国被阿尔及利亚的危机撕裂陷入了瘫痪。
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And de Gaulle is this sort of unifying figure who can resolve the crisis and avert a possible civil war.
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而在这场政治危机中，戴高尔是能够化解这场政治危机，避免法国发生内战的统一人物。
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And I think that that certain idea of France that de Gaulle talked about, it flutters like the tricolor over every French president. And maybe a measure of how effective a president is leading France is how convincing they are standing there and taking on the mantle of de Gaulle. I think that's absolutely right. I think, so de Gaulle, a nickname for him, one of the nicknames for him, by the way, was the Great Asparagus. He's such a sort of tall, beaky man. And he clearly, I mean, you can even see it in sort of photos and newsreels and things. De Gaulle always had this presence and this sort of incredibly, incredible sense of himself. I always think with de Gaulle and with a lot of French presidents, there's only a very thin dividing line between them and Inspector Clouseau.
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但是对于法国人来说，法国总统他有着一定的象征意义。他不仅仅是一个公职，他不仅仅是一个权力很大的公务员。在戴高尔眼中，英国首相是一个有点寒碜的英国女王的仆人。法国总统则是代表着法国，他非常刻意戴高尔非常刻意的塑造着这个职位的严肃性以及他的象征意义。比如说戴高尔谈论自己的时候，他经常会使用第三人称来谈论自己。
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I know you haven't read, but Julius Caesar in Asterix looks very, very like de Gaulle. And de Gaulle always spoke of himself in the third person, like Julius Caesar did.
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凯撒大帝，我突然想到我高中拉丁语课上读的那个凯撒大帝写的高卢战争传，就是他自己写的。但是他描绘他自己都是用第三人称说凯撒大帝今天来到了高卢，戴高尔也喜欢干这个事，用第三人称来描绘他自己很把自己当回事的一个表现。
来源片段
He said of de Gaulle in 1958, I would rather vote for God because God is more modest.
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戴萨特说，他在1958年法兰西共和国成立的时候，谈到戴高尔的时候，他说我宁愿投票给上帝，
来源片段
France is still in NATO, but he refuses to have French troops under sort of NATO command, and they'll withdraw from NATO's command structures. He obviously twice vetoes Britain's application to join the common market, which is his way of thanking us for our help in World War II.
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我们从戴高尔的其他很多行为上就会发现他并不完全把自己想象成一个西方命运共同体的一部分。比如说在戴高尔执政期间，法国是北约成员国，但是戴高尔拒绝让法国军队接受北约的指挥，而且他两次否决了英国加入公共市场的申请。
来源片段
He has a sense, does he not, of France as not being beholden to the United States. And he sees Britain's special relationship with the United States or slavish dependency with the United States, depending on what you prefer.
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从一开始的自我认知，就是他们有点鄙视英国与美国的这种特殊关系。不管你是把这种特殊关系定义为安格鲁萨克逊人的这种英美友谊还是殒灭的老帝国，对崛起的新帝国的奴性依赖和跪舔法国，都对这种英美的亲密关系表示一定的嗤之以鼻，并且他们以自己不受美国控制为傲。
来源片段
De Gaulle definitely sees it being the latter as something to avoid. And so his ambition is to situate France between the United States and the Soviet Union.
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在戴高尔执政期间，他一直都认为法国应该是介于美国和苏联之间的第三股力量。当然我们这个听众朋友，包括我自己作为完全的局外人，我们可以说这就是一种幻想。
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So I just wanted to put that on the record, that that is kind of the backdrop to Pompidou coming to power. And you're right that he's a very, very effective president.
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彭皮杜也是一个保守派总统。在这里我想要再强调一遍，那就是非常奇怪的一件事。
来源片段
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.
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彭皮杜之后出现了下一个法国总统Valerie Giscard d'Estaing这个名字完全是我乱读的查，
来源片段
On his coronation. But he also finds time to give Giscard these diamonds because French presidents at this point, as part of their sort of self-image as a counterweight to the United States, they're spending a lot of time trying to build up influence in kind of post-colonial Africa. And Giscard takes these diamonds from Bakassa. This is then exposed by the French satirical magazine Le Canin Enchaîné. And Giscard goes ballistic, says it's absolutely a disgrace that people are accusing him of taking these diamonds, although he clearly has taken them. But he's also a bad man, Tom, I think, on the marital front.
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当他还是内政部长的时候，就以强硬的手腕而著名。他作为内政部长，向法国人保证说，我会拿着高压水枪去清理街上的那些小混混，把他们全部都清理干净。这句话使他当时遭到了法国知识分子左翼知识分子的强烈抵制，但是却帮他赢得了大量的选票。为什么我刚才说萨科奇是一个荒诞的人？因为我们可以想象一下，他是一个小个子著名的喜欢穿内增高的鞋。但是他的个人特质又是一个强硬手腕的硬汉，要拿着高压水枪去清理法国街道的这样的一个硬汉形象，
S2：3 个窗口回退
来源片段
And he kind of makes a name for himself as someone who is the anti-De Gaulle. Yeah, that's right. Absolutely. So when De Gaulle came in in 1958, Reid as the Constitution sets up the Fifth Republic, Mitterrand is quite outspoken and opposing him. And Mitterrand is also the person who stands against him during De Gaulle's first kind of national sort of democratic presidential election. Do you see this that Mitterrand was also accused at this point of faking an assassination attempt against himself? Yes. Yes. The observatory affair. Very, very weird. And De Gaulle refuses to make political capital out of it on the grounds that Mitterrand may end up becoming president and therefore to do so would lower the dignity of the president.
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但是他描绘他自己都是用第三人称说凯撒大帝今天来到了高卢，戴高尔也喜欢干这个事，用第三人称来描绘他自己很把自己当回事的一个表现。在1958年，戴高尔通过全民公投，成为了法国现代第五共和国的第一个总统。在这里我想再说一句，作为一个外国人，我们要注意到这件事情有一点讽刺，那就是法国，它是欧洲所有国家取消君主制，取消的绝对最绝对最血腥、最暴力的一个国家，法国人民亲自把他们的君王送上了断头台。
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He comes in with an 81 and by about an 83, 84, he's abandoned that and they have this thing called the turning towards rigor, which is actually masterminded by his finance minister, Jacques de Law, later boss of the European Commission. He was de Law's. As the sun, it's good to see you see Vrentre Le Quiz in the sun, Tom. I think you should do that more often. We've had gotcha. So that's the other famous headline. So he sort of moves back towards the center, which is quite a common thing, I think, for French presidents that over time, they start with great ambitions, whether on the right or the left. And over time, they basically end up being to survive. They become kind of technocrats. But it's more than that, isn't it? It's also that if you are truly to be president of all the French, you have to be in the center.
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他们把戴高尔当成一个可以平息法国国内内战可以维稳让法国民主继续维系下去的这样的一个领袖。大家知道谁看不惯戴高尔的威严吗？绝大多数几乎所有最时髦的法国知识分子，可能唯一的例外就是雷蒙阿龙和他的好朋友Bertrand de Juvenel那些咱们都如雷贯耳的法国知识分子都觉得戴高尔是一个独裁者。当然其中有一个重要原因是因为戴高尔是一个旗帜鲜明的反共产主义者。那会儿的法国知识分子全部都是共产主义者。
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I mean, the more you do this, British politics just looks. . . So torturing. No, I think it'd quite be sensible by comparison. Yeah, it looks. . . Yes, it looks bourgeois, doesn't it? None of this happens to John Major. I mean, he's never eaten a bird with a towel over his head. Well, and talking of bad behavior, the next president is none other than Jacques Chirac, who we mentioned earlier. And he's absolutely a constant, isn't he? I mean, he is there the whole way through. Yeah. Like a kind of bad smell. Chirac basically got involved with politics when he was about two or something. And was constantly sort of plotting and being Prime Minister and. . .
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就是这个法国的情报机构展开了一个秘密行动，把一艘在搞核实验的船给炸了，炸了这个彩虹勇士号，我们来到下一个总统，又回到了右翼希拉克Jacques René-Shirac希拉克跟他的前任米特朗一样，都是法国政坛的老鸟。他在彭提度任内就已经在政府当官了。哎，我感觉这样一个一个举例说下去也没什么意思，挺没意思的。主要是说到这，大家应该发现了法国政坛有一种很靠谱的无聊，这种无聊就在于每一个政客都差不多，
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Well, and talking of bad behavior, the next president is none other than Jacques Chirac, who we mentioned earlier. And he's absolutely a constant, isn't he?
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而腐败的说到荒诞而腐败。我们不得不说希拉克的下一个，我们大家可能都听过的总统萨科奇2007年到12年的法国总统，
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He wears platform heels. Yeah. He I mean, he again has a kind of great, great marital record, because he has three wives, doesn't he, of whom the most famous is Carla Bruni. Yes.
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我们大家听过他可能是因为萨科奇个子特别矮，还娶了三个漂亮老婆。其中最著名的那个模特卡拉布鲁尼真的是法兰西玫瑰萨科奇也是一个保守派。
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And there were three boys and they get kind of electrocuted in a power station or something. And then it's a whole series of riots. And Sarkozy was the home minister at that time. That's right. And he said he wanted they he called them rackai, so scum. Yeah. And said that he wanted to apply pressure hose to them. And so that was actually, I mean, it got him lots of blowback from the left, but lots of votes. But but yeah. And that of course is I guess a kind of growing theme in French politics is a kind of you know, a kind of a hard right edge to narratives about race and particularly Islam.
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当他还是内政部长的时候，就以强硬的手腕而著名。他作为内政部长，向法国人保证说，我会拿着高压水枪去清理街上的那些小混混，把他们全部都清理干净。这句话使他当时遭到了法国知识分子左翼知识分子的强烈抵制，但是却帮他赢得了大量的选票。为什么我刚才说萨科奇是一个荒诞的人？因为我们可以想象一下，他是一个小个子著名的喜欢穿内增高的鞋。但是他的个人特质又是一个强硬手腕的硬汉，要拿着高压水枪去清理法国街道的这样的一个硬汉形象，
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Well, so so Sarkozy's interior minister during the the decade after 911. Yeah.
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法国政治这个时候，萨科奇差不多是911事件之后的十年。
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And actually kind of Islamist attacks in France are probably the worst, the worst in the continent, worse in Europe.
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这个时候，法国发生了很多恐怖袭击事件，在法国境内发生的伊斯兰恐怖袭击可能是以整个欧洲大陆最平凡的。
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But the phrase that most people use to describe François Hollande is Monsieur Flombie. And Flombie is kind of, that's like a kind of creme caramel, like a custard pudding.
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他当时在法国的外号就是Monsure Flambe就是一种非常正常的奶油焦糖、淡奶。布丁，没有人不喜欢吃这个Franbe布丁。
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And of course, he has this young industry minister who he's recruited from Rothschilds, who is Emmanuel Macron. And in 2016, I think it is.
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布丁总统在同一个社会党里面的还有一个年轻人，这个年轻人叫做Emmanuel Macron马克龙。当时的法国总统，也就是马克龙的前任，把自己招进了法国政府，当了一个工业部长。
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So Hollande hasn't been there very long. Macron founds his own party en marche with his own initials, and basically then leaves the government and Hollande just doesn't know what to make of it.
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当时的法国总统，也就是马克龙的前任，把自己招进了法国政府，当了一个工业部长。结果呢这个年轻人马克龙不久之后就离开了政府，并且用自己的姓名首字母成立了自己的党派On March咱们现在终于要说到马克龙了，
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So essentially, Macron in a way is the kind of the quintessence of a French president, because we're talking about the idea of the president rising above party politics in that kind of Gaulist sense. In a way, Macron is the most Gaulist president of all, because he actually destroys the party system.
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在法国，作为一个总统，你的人是谁，甚至超越了你的党派，这就是法国政治很特殊的地方，他的表演成分跟戴高尔当年的这个表演方式是很像的。马克龙现在作为一名政治领袖，作为法国的化身，他现在是一整个欧洲最令人印象深刻的领导人。
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Macron clearly has that sense. I mean, there are lots of stories about him saying to people when he was at school, well, I'm going to be president of France, I'm going to lead France, all this kind of stuff.
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马克龙作为一个领导人的形象，要远胜于当时当今任何一个欧洲其他国家的领袖，这是法国政治特有的机制导致的。我不知道大家记不记得一个非常有名的片段，就是马克龙当上总统不久，他在人群路过的时候，有一个小男孩在马克龙路过的时候跟他说，就是What's upManu马努老哥，你怎么样，然后马克龙停下脚步，走到这个男孩边上，跟他说，
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You call me Mr. President. And I thought, you know, in Britain, if a prime minister behave like that, people would say, God, the prime minister, what a terrible ass.
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你不能够叫我Manu,你必须要叫我总统先生这个行为。如果他敢在英国说同一句话，他敢在美国说同一句话，美国总统这么说，立刻会被人给骂死。
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Because it's not immediately obvious that Macron would be more appealing to them. I think it's a globalist, liberal, you know. It's a very good point you make, Tom, about French politics. And I think people often get that wrong, particularly in Britain, because in Britain, where France is kind of the other, I think particularly people on the liberal left have a fantasy image of France. They think it's all kind of sipping Rose wine and leafy gardens and wearing polo necks and talking about existentialism. But in reality, I mean, I can remember very vividly just to end on a kind of note of utter self indulgence. When I was a language assistant in France in the mid 1990s, I remember once in 1995 or six, so there were the Le Pen sort of bandwagon was really underway.
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播客的最后，我想要来正面回答，一开始提出的这个问题，为何法国文化如此进步，法国政治却如此保守？听到这里，大家也发现了，我们说法国政治。说到现在，他选的所有总统都是温和偏右的，而且没有一个总统表现出一丁点，要把要像这些法国学者、法国知识分子，法国文化精英拍马屁的倾向，大家可以去推美国抖音上关注一下那个什么卡玛拉阿姨的宣传抖音，我的天哪太时髦了，真是玩梗玩的。
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So the big failure of Macron was to have been unable to keep together the center right and center left. And why? It's because he played on the right.
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但是另外一方面，马克龙的崛起，他心在何处？他的新颖之处就在于马克龙之所以如此有效，恰恰是因为他的崛起伴随的是他摧毁了法国中左和中右温和派相互博弈的其他党派。
S3：5 个窗口回退
来源片段
If he is completely unable to pass anything in the National Assembly and under his watch, the National Party of Le Pen becomes by far the strongest faction in parliament, doesn't that both hamstring his presidency and ruin his legacy? And more broadly, you're blaming the weakness of Macron's party for this. And I think that certainly the proximate course. Macron dominated in the Assemblée nationale when he was first elected as president. He continued to have the smallest faction for significantly reduced after legislative elections two years ago. And now it looks like his party may fall to about half the deputies it had to much smaller share of the parliament. But there's a much more long standing set of developments here.
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马克龙，他摧毁了原先那个总统领导的社会党。因为他自己曾经马克龙就是该党的部长。现在他又离开了这个党，建立了一个新的党羽，所以他成功的吸引走了很多社会党里的支持者。与此同时，他崛起的过程中又摧毁了自由党。因为自由党的候选人跟马克龙竞争的时候，陷入了一场巨大的丑闻，涉及贪污的丑闻。所以我们可以说马克龙他崛起之后，法国就没有了中左翼和中右翼，现在法国只剩下了极右翼和极左翼，
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Now they may become a junior partner in a far right coalition, or at least the coalition with Le Pen's party. So there's a much broader depth of long standing French established parties that goes beyond what's happening to Macron's party, isn't there? Yeah. What we see is a collapse of the center, center right and center left. The Socialist Party was center left and a part of the traditional right party, conservative right, were also center left. And Macron won seven years ago by joining the center left, the center, the two centers, the center right and center left.
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所以我们可以说马克龙他崛起之后，法国就没有了中左翼和中右翼，现在法国只剩下了极右翼和极左翼，然后就是中间的马克龙。所以我们可以说一方面为什么马克龙是一个成功的领袖，因为他超越了政党，超越了意识形态，他能够代表法国，他能够集合起法国公约数最大的那个部分。但是如果你想说一个健康的民主政治代表的就是温和左派和温和右派的相互博弈。那马克龙的成功反而呢怎么说？因为他太成功了，他反而瓦解了这种中间偏左和中间偏右的党派，因为平行而论，咱们想一想，最理想的民主政治是什么？
来源片段
So rather than voters who used to work vote for a centre-left party moving towards the left because they feel that their values are being betrayed by the rightization of these parties, what we actually see is that by far and away the strongest political force in the traditional milieu and electorate of social democratic parties is now far right. That indigenous working class voters, French working class voters who have answers in France, working class voters who have answers in Germany, now vote for the far right rather than for those left-wing parties. So something about that doesn't seem to match up. And then the second point is that I wonder whether it exaggerates the role and the importance that these mainstream politicians have.
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他能够集合起法国公约数最大的那个部分。但是如果你想说一个健康的民主政治代表的就是温和左派和温和右派的相互博弈。那马克龙的成功反而呢怎么说？因为他太成功了，他反而瓦解了这种中间偏左和中间偏右的党派，因为平行而论，咱们想一想，最理想的民主政治是什么？就是不管谁赢都挺好的，这才是最理想的状态。我们不希望的状态是2024年美国大选的状态。就是他们觉得如果对手赢了，那我这个世界就塌了。
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I think this assumes that somehow because these established politicians are willing to echo some of the themes of the far right in some ways change the position of questions like immigration or to acknowledge that there are some problems with political Islamism in Europe, for example, that completely changes the nature of public discourse. And if only they held the line, then voters wouldn't have the concerns they have. And I just think that especially in an age of social media and very free-reading political discussion that overstates the impact that those kind of forces might have on the public discourse. Tell me where I go wrong on that interpretation, particularly perhaps when it comes to France. Yeah, because it's a bit particular in France. We have a so-called extreme right, Main-Le-Pen, and a so-called extreme left, Mélenchon.
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所以马克龙作为一个政客的成功，对于法国政治这个制度长远来说，并不是一个完全的好事。因为它代表的是这个制度的极端化，除了他自己本人之外的其他政党都变得更加极端了。播客的最后，我想要来正面回答，一开始提出的这个问题，为何法国文化如此进步，法国政治却如此保守？听到这里，大家也发现了，我们说法国政治。说到现在，他选的所有总统都是温和偏右的，而且没有一个总统表现出一丁点，要把要像这些法国学者、
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They are not voting for Marine Le Pen. They consider that Marine Le Pen has shifted towards secularism. So let me do one note of explanation and then a question to you, just on the note of explanation for those who are not as familiar with the French party system and particularly Eric Zemur, who is a relatively new entrant into French politics. You know, Marine Le Pen, of course, is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the inheritor, both in institutional and in personal terms of the most long-running far-right movement in France after World War II.
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再说我的第三个观察法国政治和法国文化的脱节。我们去看看那个法国的极右翼反移民的竞选人Marine Le Pen的支持者。法国绝大多数25岁以下的人都投票给Le Pen.他的支持者主要来自于年轻人，而不是老人。对于移民问题最敏感的人群，并不是我们想象的那种拥有天然歧视的偏见的老人，而是法国的年轻人。有关于为什么法国年轻人如此右倾这个现象，我只是汇报他的数据，并没有在这个播客有时间去认真思考他背后的原因。
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So we're talking about a very similar period of time, within a decade of the French Revolution. 1794, the terror is just winding down in France.
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而且前面那四个共和国又是个什么东东，让我们来快速的捋一遍。大家应该知道，在1789年发生了震惊世界的法国大革命。
S4：3 个窗口回退
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And that kind of, you know, creates its resistance, and then the people, you know, rise up, and they want to have some kind of change, social, political change. I mean, that's kind of the pattern in the French Revolution. It's the pattern in all sorts of revolutions. And we have this idea that revolutions are modern, and maybe European at first, and then they spread to the rest of the world, and the rest of the world only has rebellions. But really, it's, you know, what, rebellions, in some ways, are failed revolutions. So what you have in the Chinese case, specifically, the example that I use is the White Lotus Rebellion, which is, again, you know, kind of a backlash to the centralization by the Qing dynasty, the Chonglong Emperor, who is one of the longest-draining, you know, emperors.
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在1958年，戴高尔通过全民公投，成为了法国现代第五共和国的第一个总统。在这里我想再说一句，作为一个外国人，我们要注意到这件事情有一点讽刺，那就是法国，它是欧洲所有国家取消君主制，取消的绝对最绝对最血腥、最暴力的一个国家，法国人民亲自把他们的君王送上了断头台。但是在很多方面，他的君主制的这个体制，虽然说被他们暴力终结了，但是君主制的内核仍然在法国保留的比。
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I think European powers are shielded from that because, you know, as you say, most of their holdings are overseas. So it's almost, it's far enough away. I mean, the thing about the British Empire is it's sometimes described as out of sight, out of mind. It was possible sort of for British politics to develop in the 19th century, almost as though it didn't have an empire, you know, domestic British politics didn't, I mean, there was a focus on how to rule India, but it wasn't the animating force behind democratization and modernization within Britain. Something similar you could say happens in the United States, right? That its domestic politics and its domestic modernization doesn't feel like it's constantly at risk of collapsing because of the instability of the empire.
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我前不久还跟我那个法国朋友香槟哥聊讨论过法国总统作为一个行政职位的权利，是否比美国总统要来的更强大、更广泛。因为美国总统在我心中已经是民主共和政体里最强大的行政职位了。香槟哥因为我自己懒得去查证。香槟哥来自法国的政治学家跟我说，他认为在有一些方面，法国总统的职位要更强大，更胜于美国总统。咱们在这说了半天，戴高尔的威严，法国平民如何爱戴戴高尔？他们把戴高尔当成一个可以平息法国国内内战可以维稳让法国民主继续维系下去的这样的一个领袖。
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And it could easily go into another basket, like it could go in the 19th century, there was a lot of affinity between US and Russia, they imagined themselves as 18th, 19th century as kind of similar states. So I think a president could make a difference from a, you know, long-duré perspective, if whoever is president had an influence on US's alignment. And by alignment, I don't mean foreign policy alliances, but have the United States positions itself in the world. And it doesn't necessarily have to be always with Europe for, I mean, of course, for historical reasons it is, but you could make a different kind of argument. And I think that is possible with a president like Trump.
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所以之所以花了这么多篇幅来介绍戴高尔是因为我们可以看到他建立的这个第五共和国奠定了法国总统在法国内政上是一个怎样的角色，是一个怎样的基调？他是一个接近君主的角色，是一个可以和美国总统媲美的角色。而不是一个类似于德国、英国首相这样的一个政治地位。那我们可以说戴高尔之后的每一个法国总统在某种程度上都生活在戴高尔的阴影下，他们要么试图成为戴高尔，