最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段这一次的情况不是左派被分割了，而是右派的选票被分割了，右派的选票被分割成了一个相对温和的保守右翼和一个极端民粹主义的保守右翼。这就是为什么英国工党能够取得压倒性的胜利？这是第一个原因。第二个原因，为什么英国保守派能够如此惨败？很多人会理所应当的说是因为保守政府，保守党政府在过去14年统治的太差了。但是我认为这不是过去14年的问题，我认为这是2022年以来的问题。
来源片段And the Nationalist parties. So the SNP, Pag Cymru in Wales. Yes. So basically, lots of people have deserted the Tories and Labour for the Liberals and the Nationalist parties. And isn't this a kind of seismic moment? Because up until now, basically, it had been binary. It was either Labour or Conservative. And from this point on, the kind of duopoly has been broken. The duopoly has been broken. Exactly. Exactly that. Now, in seats, because of Britain's political system, the picture is even more complicated. So the Liberals, with their 19%, they've actually got fewer seats than they have percentage points.
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S1：5 个窗口回退
来源片段
Because again, you quote the Nuffield study of the election that was written after the election. You say it was an unpopularity contest between two contenders, widely seen as incompetent on the major issues. Yes. So thank goodness that's never happened again. No, that would never happen again in British politics. Exactly. Definitely won't be happening this year. So, right, let's start with Heath. Heath. So Heath has called the election. And the message of his campaign, it's the perfect example of the story of what was later to happen to Theresa May in 2017. You call an election on one issue and actually you find the public want the election to be on a whole load of other issues.
目标片段
所以说这个极右民粹势力的改革党，他只有5个议员，其中这个党的党魁是一个臭名昭著的、很有名的叫做Nigel Farage的家伙。法拉奇这个人主要的政治理念就是反对移民。接下来我们也会谈到他的政治理念。如果你关注英国政治，英国选举的话，这个结果应该不会让你吃惊。因为在7月4号之前，所有人所有媒体都在报道工党将迎来历史上最大的胜利。保守党将迎来历史上最大的失败。这个是美国和英国选举的不同之处。英国的选举不像美国这样不可预料。这个结果咱们在英国大选之前就知道了，保守党之所以会迎来历史性的失败，主要是以下三个，我认为相对没有争议的原因。
来源片段
And Dominic, we're looking at the first election campaign of 1974. Things seem to be going well for Edward Heath and the Conservatives, despite the fact that they've messed everything up. Are there any kind of chinks of light that might give Harold Wilson and Labour any encouragement at all? Tom, there are. There are. Are there? So, the polls are pretty much, they're vaguely neck and neck, the Tories are normally ahead. So, sometimes the Tories are ahead by 5% or so. And Heath's strategists think, you know, people don't place as much store by opinion polls in the early 70s as they do today. And presumably they're not as common.
目标片段
这个左派的分裂直接导致萨切尔在没有获得很多选票的情况下，赢得最终获胜。有几个年龄比较大的英国人告诉我2024年的选举，让他们想起了萨切尔在1983年的胜利，它等于是一个萨切尔胜利的反转版。这一次的情况不是左派被分割了，而是右派的选票被分割了，右派的选票被分割成了一个相对温和的保守右翼和一个极端民粹主义的保守右翼。这就是为什么英国工党能够取得压倒性的胜利？这是第一个原因。
来源片段
But presumably, it's a measure of the fact that membership of the common market hasn't yet become the salient issue that it, for instance, has been in Britain over the past decade. Because I guess in that situation, if it happened now, the Liberal Democrats, who are the heirs of the Liberals, would definitely go into coalition with a party that was pledged to keep Britain in the EU. Yes, I guess they would. But back then, it's not the deal breaker. No, because I think in most people's minds, the issue of the unions, the economy, and indeed the Heath government's performance, they loom much larger. So why does Thorpe say that he's not going to go into coalition with Heath?
目标片段
主要的目的是为了削减公共开支，英国的经济发展不好。但是他们发展不好的原因，被人们归咎。为保守党，仅仅是因为保守党，它是过去14年的执政党。在这里我想要提到一个大家可能会关心的题外话，那就是我们可能会理所当然的想哦，那英国人会不会把自己自己国内经济状况不佳，这件事怪在脱欧快10年前脱欧这个问题Brexit脱欧在今年的英国大选中又是怎样的情况？
来源片段
Because I guess in that situation, if it happened now, the Liberal Democrats, who are the heirs of the Liberals, would definitely go into coalition with a party that was pledged to keep Britain in the EU. Yes, I guess they would. But back then, it's not the deal breaker. No, because I think in most people's minds, the issue of the unions, the economy, and indeed the Heath government's performance, they loom much larger. So why does Thorpe say that he's not going to go into coalition with Heath? Well, he doesn't straight away. So he also has an elaborate escape plan. People loved elaborate escape plans in the 70s. He sneaks out of his house in Devon, in Wellies.
目标片段
他赢得工档领袖的部分原因确实是因为他曾经公开宣称自己支持欧盟，但是他立刻又明确的表示，他并不是真的这么想，他很快又明确的表示，他并不是真的支持欧盟。在他的领导下，他说，英国工档将成为一个接受英国脱欧的政党。也就是说，哪怕英国工档，他也不想让英国回到欧盟，他没有在脱欧这个问题上表达明确支持，或者是明确反对。也就是说，不管英国人是不是对现在的情况表示失望，我觉得所有人都同意回到欧盟，对于英国来说是一个糟糕的主意。
来源片段
But it doesn't happen for two reasons. One, the sort of high-minded people who inhabit the Liberal Party, they hate Heath. They hate the confrontation. They think, why can't we just get around a table with the unions and give the miners what they want? They're sort of woolly people. They don't like Ted Heath. And also, they really want a reform of the voting system. They think that voting system that has penalised them is unfair, shockingly. Which was the price that they demanded for going to coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. Yes, with Cameron.
目标片段
他向选民保证说他不涨税，那你如何在不提高税收的情况下增长福利呢？这也是工党要面临的一个问题。但是不管怎么样，英国的这个医保公共福利确实现在出现了很严重的问题，保守党要因此受到惩罚。所以以上三个原因就是为何保守党会在2024年英国大选获得历史性的失败的原因。第一是因为保守党被更加右翼的民粹主义改革党给分裂了。第二个原因是保守党自己过去14年的统治，以及尤其是在2022年以来Boris Johnson整出的这个幺蛾子过多。
S2：5 个窗口回退
来源片段
The great unknown was did the electorates still have not just in the back of their minds but the front of their minds Black Wednesday. So we now know with hindsight that Black Wednesday the event in September 1992 when Britain was forced out of the exchange rate mechanism and interest rates were raised and raised and raised over the course of a couple of days and then a humiliating exit had to be engineered. We now know with hindsight that that did trash the Tories reputation for economic competence but at the time it wasn't clear there were two things that could be told about that Tory government. One of which was something had happened four years ago, more than four years ago, which had looked really bad at the time, a kind of economic disaster, but actually had really good consequences and here they were four and a half years later and actually since then the economy had done really well and they had managed it pretty well
目标片段
恢复的也很缓慢。新冠疫情带来的巨大的冲击。当然，在英国还有俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对于能源价格飙升的影响，08年的金融风波之后，保守党颁布了紧缩政策，主要的目的是为了削减公共开支，英国的经济发展不好。但是他们发展不好的原因，被人们归咎。为保守党，仅仅是因为保守党，它是过去14年的执政党。在这里我想要提到一个大家可能会关心的题外话，那就是我们可能会理所当然的想哦，那英国人会不会把自己自己国内经济状况不佳，
来源片段
Yes and of course it's only a few years at that point since one of Bill Clinton's advisors had famously said it's the economy stupid so it was supposed to be one of the rules of the 1990s, the elections fought and won on the management of the economy. So given as you say that inflation was below 3% year on year, interest rates were around 5% to 6% which was the lowest since the 1960s, Britain was starting what would turn out to be 16 years of consecutive growth. We might imagine that the Tories would have done much better in the selection and I think there was probably several reasons why it didn't. One is that voters have to feel economically better. The economy is an abstraction which doesn't necessarily connect to how people feel about their individual lives and a lot of voters are taking a lot of economic pain. The recession of the early 90s hadn't been as deep as the recession of the early 1980s but it had been almost laser targeted on Tory voters.
目标片段
主要的目的是为了削减公共开支，英国的经济发展不好。但是他们发展不好的原因，被人们归咎。为保守党，仅仅是因为保守党，它是过去14年的执政党。在这里我想要提到一个大家可能会关心的题外话，那就是我们可能会理所当然的想哦，那英国人会不会把自己自己国内经济状况不佳，这件事怪在脱欧快10年前脱欧这个问题Brexit脱欧在今年的英国大选中又是怎样的情况？
来源片段
Well, no, that turned out not to be the case. Possibly, but I think parties can only really deal with the world that's in front of them. And I think it's very difficult in 1997 to envisage what's going to happen 18 years later in 2015. And I think what New Labour might say in their defence is that in 2010, when New Labour loses power in the United Kingdom as a whole, its share of the vote in Scotland actually goes up. So New Labour could claim that their electoral record in Scotland remains very strong right until the moment that they're expelled in other parts of the union. As you said, one of the reasons the Conservatives can't become, and there may be many reasons, can't become the party of English nationalism is they are not the only party of England, the Labour Party are more successful than they are.
目标片段
虽然说工档里确实有一些更加偏左的议员，他们希望可以重新考虑英国是不是要回到欧盟里，但是一整个工档的领导人，包括他们现在的主要话术，就是我们不会在近期谈论脱欧这个问题。实际上在这次竞选中很有意思的一点。就是我觉得咱们外国人可能让我们感到吃惊的一点。就是在这一整个英国大选中，没有什么党派去谈论脱欧这个问题，我们去看英国民调的话，就会发现希望逆转脱欧，希望可以回到原来2016年以前状态的英国人其实并不多。
来源片段
As you said, one of the reasons the Conservatives can't become, and there may be many reasons, can't become the party of English nationalism is they are not the only party of England, the Labour Party are more successful than they are. But this is also an election in which other parties are standing, which are making a case for a different kind of, and I think you could call it English nationalism. So the UK Independence Party, UKIP, does stand in this election. It is an absolutely tiny party, and it gets almost no votes. It gets a few more votes than Arthur Scargill's true socialists or whatever they were called. UKIP is a completely irrelevant, and this election is led by a man called Alan Sked.
目标片段
英国大选没有美国大选这么精彩的原因，主要是他的大选结果不那么出人意料。也就是说，今天这个大选结果有什么意义呢？7月4号，英国大选结果人们唯一关心的问题是保守党将剩下多少席位？因为如果你关心英国政治的话，你早就知道保守党会失败的很惨，但是你可以关心这个比较中立的少数党自由，民主党会不会获得比保守党更多的席位，以及代表极右民粹主义的这个改革，党会不会获得比保守党更多的席位，这两件事情都没有发生。
来源片段
the electoral system to introduce some or other form of proportional representation to cement the anti-Tory majority. The thing that was clear is that this election would produce a majority of the electorate not to vote in Conservative. I mean, almost every election has produced that, but this would be on a greater scale. And I think there is quite a lot of evidence that he was pretty serious about that project. And then it was blown out of the water by the scale of his victory. And we talked about this a bit last time that changing the voting system is so hard, because the politicians that have the political capital to do it are the ones who've just won a thumping victory under the system that's to be changed. The ones that might have an incentive to change it, say it had been a much weaker Labour government, would find it much harder to change the system.
目标片段
所以在这一次英国大选中，我觉得听到这里大家也听得出来选民，就是想齐心协力的把这个保守党给投出去。但是这不代表大家都全心全意的信赖工党，或者说热衷崇拜这个工党的领袖工党领袖的支持率其实也没有很高，让我在这里进行一个总结性的陈述。我跟很多应该关心这场英国大选的人聊过天，我觉得聊完天之后，我能够得出这样的一个结论，就是一方面所有这些应该关心英国大选的人都说，哇哦，英国政局要迎来历史性的转变。
S3：2 个窗口回退
来源片段
So it's this kind of proxy obsession with military defense and so on, which the Ukraine war certainly accelerated. I think that what is most remarkable and most worth emphasizing about the conjuncture of European politics is the way in which the security question as a vector for civilizational politics has become so dominant. Even as a lot of the most controversial policies remain in place, there's all sorts of scandalous aspects of European politics, which are not just to do with the emergent far right, but have to do with the very nature of this European project and its longstanding extremities and the way it behaves in Western Africa and the way it behaves in Latin America and the way
目标片段
另外一点，我认为习惯了我讨论美国政治的朋友，听到现在可能会觉得怎么还没有听到一个关键词。这个关键词就是身份政治identity politics,对吧？身份政治在哪里？身份政治在美国当今的政治环境中占据了非常重要的一部分。身份政治或者说反对身份政治可以说就是当今美国左派右派争论的核心。为什么它在2024年英国大选中没有出现呢？为什么性别问题、种族问题、身份认同融合度？我说到现在我都没有提到呢？这些话题为什么不是这次英国大选中的主流呢？
来源片段
What's remarkable and I do time this to the war in Ukraine and certainly Joe Biden's election is just the disappearance of a lot of those questions. And I do think there's a deep nihilism across a lot of Europe today in terms of what Europe can do for its people and what is going on. I mean, I think there's a general sense of just total demobilization of Europeans from their own political project. The plazas are empty, the centers are empty. People are just not engaged on these questions and parties are reconverging towards this kind of European Atlantis consensus position in ways I could never have anticipated.
目标片段
而且他们也知道，即便能够改变英国的命运，也无法改变世界的命运。所以他们不在乎从什么时候开始，英国对于世界来说不关紧要了。英国失去了文化自信，它不光失去了文化自信，他们甚至失去了对于自己文化的理解，再讲几个很笼统的。对于英国大选的观察，我相信所有关心英国政治试图去了解2024年，英国大选究竟在干嘛的朋友们了解完了之后，都会得出以下这个笼统的结论。这个英国政局怎么这么烂呢？首先是保守党看起来真的把英国统治的一团糟。
S4：2 个窗口回退
来源片段
And number two, had they never bothered to campaign but just all gone on a massive holiday to Butlins or something, it's kind of Westminster outing. Instead, basically done in Ed Davie, if they hadn't campaigned, the result would probably have been exactly the same. So this is the question, isn't it? How many election campaigns does a campaigning make a difference to? Are there any? I would say generally it doesn't matter unless it does. This is the top punditry we want from Britain's leading historian of modern Britain. Yeah. So if you go through all the fifties and sixties elections, for example, those election campaigns, you know, I've written about them. I've spent, you know, unhealthily large quantities of my life, of my time on this planet, thinking about the 1966 election on 1964, 1959.
目标片段
他既不是提供福利的政党，也不是低税率的政党。但是我刚才讲的这三个，为什么保守党会获得历史性失败的原因？咱们在选举之前早就知道了。如果你在选举前去看什么BBC,你就可以看到这种分析。英国大选没有美国大选这么精彩的原因，主要是他的大选结果不那么出人意料。也就是说，今天这个大选结果有什么意义呢？7月4号，英国大选结果人们唯一关心的问题是保守党将剩下多少席位？因为如果你关心英国政治的话，你早就知道保守党会失败的很惨，但是你可以关心这个比较中立的少数党自由，
来源片段
And if only the opposition had been able to work together, then that dreadful woman would never have had the chance to destroy this country. That's what people say. I think that is wrong. In fact, I know that's wrong because studies of the election have shown, I think beyond any reasonable doubt, that if the SDP Liberal Alliance had not existed, a lot of their voters would have voted conservative. Oh, that is interesting. And there is actually an argument that had they not existed. And by the way, it's impossible to imagine an alternative reality in which they don't exist. They always would have existed. I mean, don't forget the Liberals had won almost 20% of the vote in 1974.
目标片段
这两件事情都没有发生。所以说这个选举结果对于保守党来说是意料之中的，而不是意料之外的噩梦。因为现在的保守党变成了官方的反对党。大家记得我刚开始提到英国的工党已经获得了412个席位，占多数席位的174个。我觉得不了解英国政治体制的人，很容易用美国人的视角去理解这个数字。如果咱们从美国政治的立场去理解这个数字的话，你占了那么多个多数席位，就意味着你会获得一个filibuster proof majority.