最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段我觉得这种情况发生的几率应该很小。确实有一些美国民调，他们问了美国老百姓说，如果特朗普被定罪了，你会会不会改变你的选票？但是我不太相信这种民调，因为我不相信普通老百姓可以在假设性问题中给出非常靠谱的答案。所以我在这里就不引用这些民调的数据了。波克说到这里，我相信我已经阐述了所有有关这个案件的重要信息，以及我认为有价值的见解。我不是什么通天盖世的巫婆，所以我没有办法得出任何有效的预测。
来源片段question, but it's an important question to consider. Yeah, I agree. My instincts, I don't have polling at hand to back it up. But my feeling is that a lot of the people who are most in favor of prosecution, the ones who say answered your Twitter poll that you mentioned, they're so convinced that he's guilty that they sort of presume any fair presentation of the evidence, full end in a conviction. They don't think that he could get off because he's so obviously guilty. I think that it's much more unclear than that. I would like to add, since you brought up impeachment,
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S1：3 个窗口回退
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even further outside of ordinary politics, which takes place under a kind of roof or a tent of the rule of law that all Americans are supposed to kind of affirm, that whether a Democrat's in charge or Republicans in charge in Washington, we can trust that the law and the legal proceedings will take place fairly in both cases. Trump would be trying to teach the lesson, this is no longer true, all there is is partisanship and this is the Democrats trying to destroy me, your champion and hero. And that could be
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他们判定特朗普所有34项重罪指控成立，这就是美国司法系统的运作方式。任何人因为不喜欢判决，结果就说这是被人操控的。这是鲁莽危险和不负责任的行为。我们的司法系统已经存在了近250年，它是美国的基石，司法系统应该受到尊重，我们绝不允许任何人摧毁它，就是这么简单，这就是美国。这就是我们我们是美国人。即便从纽约州的法律流程来说，这些陪审团确实履行了他们的职责。但是在特朗普支持者眼中，这也不是一个公正的审判。
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What is the outcome variable we're worried about here? Is it that a large number of Americans are going to say the prosecution of a former president is illegitimate and that's bad? If possible, don't want lots of citizens to think, but what the state does is illegitimate, that doesn't feel like it's so weighty. Is it we're worried that this is going to lead some people who have been arguing over the last weeks to civic violence and some kind of form of civil war? I think that term is usually really stretched beyond the sensible limits in this kind of context. People aren't
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这个钱虽然说小的可以忽略，但是他捐款行为本身就说明了这个法官对于特朗普是有偏见的，他在有偏见的前提上没有选择回避这个案件。当然很多律师告诉我，这并不会成为一个法律问题。因为法官不主动回避，很少会引发跟审判本身相关的宪法问题。但是这个问题就出在政治影响，对吧？这个法官本身的偏见会引起很多美国人的愤慨，认为这违反了司法道德。我们说完了，检察官和法官接下来再说一个最重要的问题可以直接回答，为什么？这不是一个好的法律案件的问题，就是这个纽约检察官对于特朗普的指控是否超出了due process,
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federal law simply is not clear enough, right? So the one thing I feel sort of clear about in this is, you know, we're not vindicating the principle that everybody's equal before the law by trying Donald Trump and failing to convict him because parts of the jury are working in his favor. And so I think sort of, you know, when we're debating about whether or not to impeach Trump, not enough attention was paid to what happens of impeachment goes pretty badly wrong and ends up more or less along parts of the lines acquitting him as happened twice. And I'm struck by how little
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我们说完了，检察官和法官接下来再说一个最重要的问题可以直接回答，为什么？这不是一个好的法律案件的问题，就是这个纽约检察官对于特朗普的指控是否超出了due process,超出了律师和正当程序的界限，他可能没有正，他可能没有侵犯正当程序。但是只要你在乎司法公正，我觉得每一个人都会觉得他是在push the boundaries of due process,他是在触碰司法公正的界限，我们等一下会详细的解释。为什么？这是一个灰色地带这种灰色地带，这种摸棱两可。这个不是陪审团的问题。这是选择提起诉讼的检察官的问题，以及允许这个检察官接受了这个案件袁峰不动向前推进的法官的问题。
S2：4 个窗口回退
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Now we've recorded our regular episode before this news came out where we talk about the Supreme Court and its fight for impartiality and what a second Trump presidency would look like if it happens. But first, Katty, talk us through what we've just found out. Anthony, I've been reaching out to people on the Biden campaign and on the Trump campaign. I'm sure you're hearing from people as well. The initial things that I've heard from the Biden campaign is interesting. I think it's been increasing their confidence that this extraordinary news that President Trump has now been found criminally guilty increases their chances of winning the election in November.
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但是既然我们在讨论这是否正义，我们就必须要首先去讨论法律流程的公正。那我觉得在法律流程的问题上，这个案件可能是这个案件唯一一个没有什么话可以说的地方。这也是拜登的话述在特朗普被审判的第二天，拜登在他的演讲里面说，我下面引用一下拜登的原话，他说，没有人凌驾于法律之上的美国原则得到了重申，经过仔细审议陪审团达成一致裁决。他们判定特朗普所有34项重罪指控成立，这就是美国司法系统的运作方式。
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Today, we're going to look at the Supreme Court's growing role in US elections and tied into this Justice Alito flying a kind of pro-MAGA flag or a flag that has been used in pro-MAGA in the insurrection in January the 6th, for example, casting doubt on the court's impartiality or on his impartiality. I spoke to a former Supreme Court clerk about that. And he had some interesting things to say. Then in the second half, we're going to take another look at what a Trump presidency would mean for the United States. I think it's really worthwhile us digging into kind of actually his policies and what his plans are for America. And we're going to have a look at kind of what he plans to do with the civil service, the Department of Justice, and whether he can actually pull that off.
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他们也会说，如果我们把特朗普的这一次被定罪的纽约案和其他三个他将被起诉的案件对比，就是1月6号国会大厦袭击案和特朗普是否处理了敏感政府文件的案件。还有一个佐治亚的选举案，我们去看这三个案件背后的法律论点会发现这一次特朗普在纽约州被定罪的这个案件，他的论点他的法律论点是最弱的。作为对比，我给大家举个例子，在美国1月6号冲击国会大厦事件之后，有数百个美国公民被起诉了。如果我们说是，如果这是未来的事情还没有发生。如果美国检察官在调查了这数百个人的过程中发现了一些证据，发现了一些犯罪事实，然后再通过这个犯罪事实去起诉特朗普。
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And he was very explicit about saying that if he was the Democratic nominee and then the Democratic president, he would expand the court and it was time to do so. Joe Biden has been asked about this multiple times and has kind of hedged on it. But I've heard the same thing from people in the White House that they are not opposed to looking at expanding the number of people on the Supreme Court. And some of this is for cynical politics, because they see that Donald Trump got three Supreme Court justices. Joe Biden has only had one. I mean, it was just kind of the luck of the draw that Donald Trump got three. And he put in three young justices who are going to be there for a long time.
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竞选了公职，并且吹嘘自己追捕特朗普的能力。他在竞选过程中还虚假的吹嘘说他已经起诉过特朗普一百多次了。那对于一些美国人来说，这个检察官他已经有失偏颇了。他的政治目的就是为了搞倒特朗普给他定罪，他的政治目标不是公平公正，或者说在他心中，从一开始公平公正和给特朗普定罪，这两个目标是划了等号的。我们说完这个检察官再说到这个法官，这个法官有一个很小很小的流程上的问题。这个法官违反了纽约的司法道德准则。
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The closer American elections are, the more court cases we're going to have, the more of those cases are going to end up in the Supreme Court. One final thought, it's worth remembering, this is a conservative court with conservative members appointed by Donald Trump. But in 2020, when presented with election challenges by lawyers on Trump's side, this Supreme Court repeatedly sided against Donald Trump. So the court is capable of looking at election cases and saying Donald Trump did not have a leg to stand on legally, and the election was free and fair, and they decided with Joe Biden on that. We're going to take a quick break. Afterwards, we'll be back to look at more of Trump's domestic policy.
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但是我们最早最早在2025年那个纽约中级法院会做出决定，他们是否会推翻这个案件的审判结果，特朗普是否会被重判为无罪？OK我们在这里假想一个很恐怖的事实，一个可能会给美国政治带来巨大动荡的可能性。我们来假想一下2024年美国大选确实是特朗普对战拜登结果。特朗普以很微弱的劣势输掉了这场选举。结果。2025年一年之后，纽约州中级法院的法官推翻了今天的这个审判结果。