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目标片段那个德意志帝国的首任皇帝威廉一世自1871年登基，直至1888年，驾崩在位，长达17年。
来源片段Its first emperor, Kaiser Wilhelm I, was on the throne until 1888, from 1871 to 1888.
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来源片段
Chris, we're talking about Kaiser Wilhelm II as Donald Trump, or maybe we're talking about Donald Trump as Kaiser Wilhelm. I'm not sure. We'll have to work out which way around it goes. But let's start with Wilhelm, because I think he's the one who needs probably more background explanation for people listening. And then we'll get on to the comparison. So just tell us a bit about him, but particularly, why is he still an object of such fascination for historians? Well, he was the last German Kaiser. So he was the last example of a monarchical head of state in Germany.
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有一个比希特勒更加有趣的类比，那就是德皇威廉二世。而且我这也不是什么很新颖的独一无二的想法就是有很多欧洲历史学家看着特朗普都忍不住想到了威廉二世，我自己好像也在2018年的纽约客看到一篇文章，把特朗普比作威廉二世，这个皇帝真的很有意思。威廉二世在位期间是1888年到1918年，正值德意志帝国从崛起走向危机的关键阶段。威廉二世继承了比斯迈奠定的国家基础。
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And then, somewhat earlier than people had expected, suddenly Wilhelm II came to the throne.
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在相对年轻的年纪撒手人寰，后来这个威廉二世就突然登上了王位。
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And so he was on the throne from 1888 until 1918.
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也就是说，威廉二世从1888年在位直至1918年这段时间，可是德国历史、欧洲历史乃至世界历史的多世之秋，
来源片段
So I'm going to give you a few of the things that you wrote about Kaiser Wilhelm II, and then let's explore what this means for understanding Wilhelm first, and then maybe get onto present matters. So one aspect of his political personality, and one of the things that made him unusual, and also made people at the time not know how to deal with him, including how seriously to take him, was his style of communication.
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当时正在统治德国的这个德皇，他的性格特征是什么？在一开始我想说，今天有关威廉二世的传记和历史学文献中，有一个至今仍然被学者争论不休的问题。
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Was it something that got worse over time? How and why was he this kind of communicator?
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他的长期争论就是他的人格，为什么这么不恰当不合时宜？他的言论为什么这么不恰当？
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And if we take the mad first, or was he mentally unhealthy in some way? And this is a, you know, as old as the sort of modern literature on Wilhelm II, there are efforts to diagnose his relationship with his parents.
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在相当长的一段时间内，这种研究被精神分析学派给统治了吗？因为那毕竟确实是一个弗洛伊德的时代精神分析学家会倾向于把威廉二世的人格问题归结到俄迪普斯情节上，就说是他的这个父母关系的紧张，导致他的人格问题，用精神分析去解构他和父母之间的关系。
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And this is a, you know, as old as the sort of modern literature on Wilhelm II, there are efforts to diagnose his relationship with his parents. There was a famous psycho-historical biography of the Kaiser by a man called Kohut, who argued that, you know, insufficient care and love from the parents produced an immature personality prone to irritability, narcissism, lacking empathy, and so on.
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其中一个重要代表是一个叫做Heinz Kohat的学者，写出了一部颇具影响力的威廉二世心理史传记在其中。他提出，由于父母给予的关爱和情感支持不足，导致威廉二世形成了一种不成熟的人格，具体表现使他易怒、
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But then came John Ruhl, who developed over an enormous span of years and of research, a very sophisticated account of the Kaiser's birth, because the Kaiser was born with a lamed arm, a lamed left arm, and that was because of the application of forceps. He was a forceps birth, because he was born breech and had to be turned around and so on. Getting him out into the world was a difficult process and involved a use of forceps which damaged the brachial plexus, a sort of network of nerves around the arm. So the arm was lamed. And the question was, was any other damage done during this birth? And John Ruhl, who is a magnificently assiduous and determined and even stubborn researcher, went into every conceivable piece of evidence about the obstetrical process and found that given the combination of the drugs that were being used on his mother to ease her labor, the time he spent in the birth canal and the possible effects of the
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因为我们已经知道威廉二世出生的时候，在分娩过程中，故事使用了钳子就产钳把它夹出来。因为威廉二世在母体中胎儿臀部朝下，因此医生不得不在分娩过程中把胎位转正，才能够让小宝宝顺利的来到这个世界。然后在分娩过程中，护士使用了产钳，导致他环绕手臂的神经网络造成损伤。于是这个威廉二世，他的左手臂是终身残疾的，以上都是我们已知的事实。完了这个历史学家在干嘛呢？他就写一本书，在考证说他在分娩过程中有没有造成其他损伤？
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And the question was, was any other damage done during this birth? And John Ruhl, who is a magnificently assiduous and determined and even stubborn researcher, went into every conceivable piece of evidence about the obstetrical process and found that given the combination of the drugs that were being used on his mother to ease her labor, the time he spent in the birth canal and the possible effects of the
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他们吃什么药，然后胎儿在产道中会滞留多少时间，以及当时的医疗条件，有没有可能让钳子的使用带来各种后遗症以及胎盘和脐带的位置。总之在这个基础之上，这个历史学家John Rowe得出了一个颇具争议。
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He might suddenly be very interested in the Hittite language, for example, or he might then be interested in radio telegraphy or, you know, why is standard oil so powerful?
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比如说他会对赫地语产生浓厚的兴趣，或者说突然开始关注无线电报技术，然后会突然向他周边的人问一些奇怪的问题。
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He might suddenly be very interested in the Hittite language, for example, or he might then be interested in radio telegraphy or, you know, why is standard oil so powerful? Why can't we have a European version of standard oil? Or tariff policies and so on. So there are all kinds of subjects on which he might lecture people or harangue them. And John Ruhl thought that this stemmed from a combination of the rather crudely handled birth, oxygen insufficiency, hypoxemia, I think is the term that's used, and later neurosis inducing pressures in his life as a prince in the royal family. So that's the argument. And to be clear, we're not going to be able to draw that direct parallel with the current president of the United States, maybe the neuroticization later in life. But if there is a medical explanation here, then we are talking about two very distinct forms of incontinence.
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他比如说会突然开始思考诸如为什么标准石油公司的权力如此庞大呢？我们自己能不能够搞一个我们自己的标准石油，反正这个皇帝就不正常的非常著名嘛。作为一个皇帝，他的思考不稳定，而且一旦产生了执念，就会在公开场合发表长篇大论。于是在历史学家John Rowe的传记里面，他考察就是说他得出的结论是说威廉二世出生的时候，产妇用那个钳子把他的脑子给夹瓦他了。出生的时候，因为缺氧医学术语是说他有低氧血症诱发了一些神经反应。
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So, when he became Kaiser and this style of communication suddenly became the mode of expression of their head of state in a society in which mass circulation newspapers were on the rise, in which he could communicate to large numbers of people. So, it's not the 20th century to begin with, never mind the 21st.
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我认为有两个重要的时代，语境问题是和19世纪末20世纪初的媒体发展相关那个时间段，大众报刊迅速新奇国家元首第一次可以通过媒体直接向广大民众发声。在这样的一个媒介环境中，国家元首的言论就会成为极度渴求被高度关注的对象。
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Why am I not allowed to have free speech?
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为什么我没有言论自由，为什么那些知识分子说他们支持别人有言论自由，然后不给我言论自由。
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He was the German emperor, the Deutsche Kaiser, not the Kaiser von Deutschland, the Kaiser Deutschlands.
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但至少我们可以说德意志，皇帝，他不是法国皇帝，或者是中国皇帝，这种绝对君主，他就不是一个absolute monarch.
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speaking directly to ordinary Germans, who might not have been nearly as horrified as the professor in the Munich Café thinks they ought to have been about no quarter given, we are the Huns, and so on. Is there any plausible way in which he was also a kind of populist, in the sense that he spoke beyond the people who wanted to rein him in, to an audience that quite liked the fact that he didn't seem to hold his tongue?
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他经常直接使用粗鲁激烈的语言，这些语言会激怒受过高等教育的德国知识分子和体面阶层，但是有可能受到普通民众的欢迎。他在打仗的时候，经常说出一些非常炸裂的话，就听起来很直接的话，比如说我们德国人杀人不留活口，就这种言辞。
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He referred to French Impressionism as gutter art, for example.
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比如说他还曾经把法国印象派艺术称为下水道艺术和阴沟里的艺术。
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And that was appalling to people who went to, you know, museums and art galleries and so on in Berlin, which had an incredibly sophisticated, culture-consuming bourgeoisie.
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这种话对于柏林那些经常出入博物馆美术馆，拥有高的文化消费能力的资产阶级来说，就是粗俗的令人难以接受。
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But its effect was similar to that of populism. It revealed that sort of, you know, leapfrogging quality of certain forms of public parlance that they pass over the heads of the educated elites who curate public opinion, but land quite happily amongst the sort of mass of people who don't read quality newspapers.
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所以说在报纸、编辑知识精英所谓的知识阶层主导的舆论场域中，威廉二世的表现是尸体缺乏修养的，但是在公众舆论层面，在更广大的民众感受中，他常常会获得满堂喝彩。
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Well, the Daily Telegraph interview was an interview he gave with a man called Watley Montague, who was a personal friend and they met in Highcliffe Castle and had a sort of private chat, which Watley Montague then turned into an interview and gave to the Telegraph. So he was stitched up a bit.
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在他的海克利夫城堡进行的一个私下谈话。蒙塔古是威廉二世的私人朋友，后来把谈话整理成了采访稿，交给了每日电讯报。
S1：2 个窗口回退
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So the British interlocutor actually did everything that he was expected to do and sent it to the Kaiser for authorization. The stitch up, if it happened, probably had more to do with the German Chancellor because the Kaiser, having seen the text of the interview and thinking, I hope that's okay. I mean, I think it looks wonderful, but I'd better check. I'd better check because he had been in trouble before. You know, I've been in trouble for this kind of thing before. So I'd better check with Bülow, the Chancellor, Bernhard von Bülow, and make sure that it's okay. So he had it sent to Bernhard von Bülow. But Bernhard von Bülow was on vacation. He was on the island of Nordenai having his summer rest.
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蒙塔古是威廉二世的私人朋友，后来把谈话整理成了采访稿，交给了每日电讯报。严格来说，威廉二世也没有被英国人暗算。因为这个稿子发布之前，曾经交给他本人过目，并且征求他的批准威廉二世，也知道自己曾经因为满嘴跑火车惹出麻烦。于是他把这个稿件交给了当时的德国首相。冯比洛希望这个冯比洛首相可以确认能否可以发表，然后就是一大堆机缘巧合，这个首相正在一个岛上度假，然后德国历史中就出现了一个争议，就说这个首相究竟有没有看过稿子，默许了，还是他自己后来宣称根本就看都没看过。
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So he had it sent to Bernhard von Bülow. But Bernhard von Bülow was on vacation. He was on the island of Nordenai having his summer rest. And so the question then arises, did Bülow read the text and sign it off? Or did he simply never see it, which is what he claimed? Bülow later claimed, I never saw this thing. It's very embarrassing. It's terrible. And refused to defend the Kaiser. So he may have been stitched up by the Chancellor, but the evidence all suggests that he tried to behave in a constitutional fashion and have the interview authorized by the appropriate personnel. In any case, the content of the interview, well, in many ways, if you read it now, it seems much of a muchness.
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因为这个稿子发布之前，曾经交给他本人过目，并且征求他的批准威廉二世，也知道自己曾经因为满嘴跑火车惹出麻烦。于是他把这个稿件交给了当时的德国首相。冯比洛希望这个冯比洛首相可以确认能否可以发表，然后就是一大堆机缘巧合，这个首相正在一个岛上度假，然后德国历史中就出现了一个争议，就说这个首相究竟有没有看过稿子，默许了，还是他自己后来宣称根本就看都没看过。因为这个首相事后拒绝为德皇辩护。因此，也有一些人认为这个威廉二世是被自己的首相给坑了。
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I mean, I love Britain.
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我爱英国，我骨子里就是英国人。
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And also then saying most Germans don't like Britain. Well, the Germans resented that too.
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然后她还说了什么暴论？她说大多数德国人就是不喜欢英国，但是我本人喜欢英国，总之你可以理解吧，就是美日电讯报发表了这个德国皇帝的访谈之后，
S1：2 个窗口回退
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I love you guys. And so on. So that's right. And the thing is that then it was published. And, you know, I think the British just thought, you know, more nonsense from this, from the king of nonsense. But in Germany, it caused this tremendous, I mean, it was like a sort of nervous breakdown of the media. I mean, people just, people were so embarrassed by it. And you can see why. I mean, it's so, there's a kind of infantile quality to it. And also a profound indiscretion. I mean, you know, giving tips about how to win the Boer War and so on. I mean, how embarrassing is that? And also then saying most Germans don't like Britain. Well, the Germans resented that too. Why is he speaking for us?
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在这个访谈里，威廉二世，对着英国人说我爱你们，你们为什么不理解我？我明明想帮你们，你们英国人为什么不感谢我，而且他很轻率，对吧？作为德国皇帝，他公开宣称自己曾经向英国提供如何打赢英国和一个其他国家战争的军事建议。这个无论对英国、德国还是其他国家来说，都是不合时宜，你就不能这么做的。而且最后他还在那个访谈里面说，大多数德国人都不喜欢英国，这激怒了德国公众啊，因为很多德国人会反问，你凭什么代表我们说话，你有病吧，我们不讨厌英国，对吧？
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I mean, people just, people were so embarrassed by it. And you can see why. I mean, it's so, there's a kind of infantile quality to it. And also a profound indiscretion. I mean, you know, giving tips about how to win the Boer War and so on. I mean, how embarrassing is that? And also then saying most Germans don't like Britain. Well, the Germans resented that too. Why is he speaking for us? We like Britain and so on. So it just went down incredibly badly and was seen as an intervention. The behavior of a rogue ambassador, you know, speaking for German foreign policy or in an international environment with possible foreign political or geopolitical consequences in a way that was completely irresponsible.
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这个无论对英国、德国还是其他国家来说，都是不合时宜，你就不能这么做的。而且最后他还在那个访谈里面说，大多数德国人都不喜欢英国，这激怒了德国公众啊，因为很多德国人会反问，你凭什么代表我们说话，你有病吧，我们不讨厌英国，对吧？因此，这篇访谈不仅在英国引起轩然大波，以及巨大的困惑，也在德国引发众怒嘛。德国舆论对此的反应近乎崩溃，人们以为德皇像一个脱疆的野马一样，在国际舞台上不负责任的代表。
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The behavior of a rogue ambassador, you know, speaking for German foreign policy or in an international environment with possible foreign political or geopolitical consequences in a way that was completely irresponsible.
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德国外交政策发言，这种发言方式可能带来严重的外交和地缘政治后果。
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In the meanwhile, the pushback, the negative feedback and so on precipitated Wilhelm II into one of these depressions, which he suffered whenever this kind of thing happened. He plunged into bed.
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然后接下来也很好笑啊，强烈的外界反弹，让威廉二世推入了自己这个抑郁发狂的状态。他发表了这个报纸言论之后，销声匿迹、沉默寡言，把自己蒙在被窝里，几乎不再公开露面。
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In fact, scarcely appeared in public until the next terrible discretion about three years later in 1910, when he said, the Prussian eagle is once again spreading its wings across Europe. Oops, another uproar, outrage, uproar.
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这种状态持续到几年之后，又在1910年前后说出了暴论。普鲁士雄鹰正在展翅翱翔于欧洲上空之类的话，然后又引发舆论风波轩然大波。
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Oops, another uproar, outrage, uproar. So, you know, I mean, it remained throughout his life. One of the things about Wilhelm is that you can't write a Bildungsroman about Wilhelm. You can't write a novel of education, evolution and development in which at the end, the central protagonist has achieved a wisdom and an overview which was lacking, which was not present in the callow, youthful version. Because Wilhelm II doesn't ever seem to have learned anything. He suffered, but he didn't learn. So it's a bit like a character in Seinfeld. You know, he just remained the same throughout his life. And his mother had already said when he was a young man.
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我跟你说，你要是听了这些播客，你觉得他很好笑，然后你去读威廉二世的传记，你就会发现这个人是没有成长的，就他不会学的，他没有办法接受教训，他确实经常因为自己讲出了什么暴论，然后受到了舆论批评，然后崩溃在被窝里面嚎啪大哭，但是他不改变，你知道吗？他的传记不是一个成长小说不是一个bildungshochmann,这个人就是这样。而且我觉得另外一个很重要的关键点在于威廉二世时代的德国有一个强健的公共领域，他的公共领域和今天不一样，就是我说的是和今天的美国不一样，今天的美国是一个碎片化的公共领域。
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The public sphere was still that Habermasian public sphere in the sense that it was theorized and idealized by Jürgen Habermas, the great German sociologist, as a space of reason giving and dialogical contestation. It was an energetic, critical sphere, which is constantly pushing back against government and authority and working out complex questions in a relatively autonomous way.
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但是那个时候的德国有一个相当强健的、不碎片化的公共领域是由报纸记者、读者、大学教授、文人、知识分子、公知共同构成的一个能够进行理性争论、公共批评观点、交锋和监督权力的空间。
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And there were many newspapers in Germany which employed famous journalists or had famous editors and served very passionately loyal readerships in their respective regional environments because it was a highly regionalized country, Germany.
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而且由于德国高度区域化，各地报纸有着忠实的读者群。
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I mean, we live in an age with a less robust public sphere or at least a more fragmented public sphere, but also it's an age in which really high politics. Trump tours the world and claims personal relationships with a very small number of people whom he thinks he can manage. I want to read you one more line from your book of Wilhelm. This also reminds me of someone. He was angry with the Tsar one week, but infatuated with him the next. He reacted with fury to perceived slights and provocations, but panicked at the prospect of genuine confrontation or conflict. In an age of hyper-personalized, very high politics, that was dangerous. It was even recognized at the time that that was dangerous.
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然后虽然说那个时候有一些媒体也批评他有点不得体了。就但是本质上我们大众也不觉得这是一个特别特别晴天霹雳，违背规矩，他不应该做的事情。但是威廉二世所处的这个时代，是国家领袖和国家领袖之间，君主和金主之间都是亲家的时代，对吧？所以说那这个统治者个人的不稳定的风格，确实会形成更加严重的外交风险。所以我们在那个语境下去看威廉二世的性格会发现他要承担的外交风险，比今天的特朗普要大得多。
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And in fact, very robust sort of controls emerged around the Kaiser to prevent him from causing damage or from intervening in the processes of government in ways that would, you know, destabilize the system.
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实际上，在威廉二世身边逐渐形成了一套强大的管控机制，防止他日常制造货端或者以某种方式用个人的方式去干预政府运作，
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So in some ways, you know, what people spent most of their time doing, and this is a great waste on time and resources and emotion and energy and so on, was managing the Kaiser. The Kaiser had to be heavily managed by the people around him.
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从而动摇体制。根基帝国，高层花费了大量时间、资源、情感和精力去管理皇帝本人。
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And yet in 1914, when the prospect of genuine conflict loomed very large and panicked a lot of people, did it panic him?
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然而，当真正的战争逼近的时候，尤其是1914年全欧大战阴影降临的时候，他的反应却不是一路狂飙，
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How did he react? Well, with something closely approaching panic, and also with a determination to, if he could, to stop it from happening.
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而是近乎惊慌失措。他一方面表现出惶恐，另外一方面又突然展示出一种想要阻止战争的野心。
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But to come back to that contrast, I mean, if we go back to 1905, there's a conversation on record between him and Leopold of the Belgians, in which he sits down and says, you know, we're a bit worried the French could attack Germany at some point.
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当时威廉二世曾经和比利时国、王利奥波德有过一段谈话，他对利奥波德说，德国担心法国未来可能进攻德国。
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And if that were to happen, we'd expect Belgium to support us.
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如果这种情况发生，德国希望比利时站在德国这边。
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And if you didn't support us, well, we'd have to take a large part of Belgium.
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但是如果比利时拒绝支持，那么德国就不得不吞并比利时的大片国土。
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And this was so upsetting to King Leopold of the Belgians that when he got up, he put his helmet on the wrong way round.
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就这番话令那个比利时国王利奥波德极度震惊和愤怒，以至于他起身离席的时候，把自己的头盔都戴反了，更荒唐的是威廉二世是公然在利奥波德的生日宴会上威胁他。
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So, you know, you can imagine, how was your birthday, darling? Well, I went there and one of the guests threatened to invade me.
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他的老婆问他，他妻子问他说，亲爱的，你的生日宴会过得怎么样？他说，嗨别提了一位客人在我的生日宴会上威胁他要入侵我的国家。
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And yet in 1914, when the danger of a real war loomed large, Wilhelm jammed his feet down on the brakes.
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可是到了1914年，当战争真的迫在眉睫的时候，威廉二世的反应发生了变化。
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He initially said, surely when he got the reply from the Serbs to the Austrian ultimatum, his first reaction was, well, that seems fine. Great.
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最初他看到塞尔维亚对奥匈最后通牒的回复的时候，他的第一反应是诶，这看起来还不错，事情可以翻篇了，
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And then when it was actually at the beginning of August, when it was time to mobilize or not, because the Russians were mobilizing and the Germans were, for complicated reasons we don't have time to go into now, committed to a plan which would respond to a Russian invasion in the east with an attack on France, being the allies of Russia. The question arose as to whether the mobilization order should be given.
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到了8月初，一战局势发展到了是否要军事动员的关键时刻，俄国已经开始动员。德国出于既定作战计划，一旦俄国从东线开始威胁就会转而进攻法国。
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And Wilhelm refused to relinquish the hope that the British might be persuaded to remain neutral and might even be persuaded to keep the French out of the conflict.
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在这个关头，威廉二世仍然不愿意放弃最后一线，希望幻想能够说服英国保持中立，甚至希望英国会出面干预，
S1：2 个窗口回退
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And in order to keep that possibility open, it was a fairly quixotic possibility, a largely fantasized possibility. In order to keep that open, he demanded, he told Moltke he wanted the mobilization to be stopped. He wanted the troops to stop marching. And Moltke said, we can't, we can't stop the troops from marching. This army is a vast, it covers an entire landscape. It's already in motion. You can't just say to an army like that. They've got to stop. That can't be done. We're committed to the railway routes. What will happen to the railways? And the Kaiser said, your uncle would have given me a different answer, referring to the famous Moltke of the Wars of Unification. And he said, if I say it, it must be done.
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在冲突之外，这几乎是一种唐吉赫德式的空想，对吧？然后在这样的一个关头，威廉二世就是战争就不打不打不行的关头，他要求自己的总参谋长毛奇停止军事动员要求德国部队停止行军。他的总参谋员回复威廉二世，说，这是不可能的。皇帝。德国军队规模庞大，我们已经按照既定铁路路线开展部署，整台战争机器已经开始运动了。你不能简单的说停就停。
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This army is a vast, it covers an entire landscape. It's already in motion. You can't just say to an army like that. They've got to stop. That can't be done. We're committed to the railway routes. What will happen to the railways? And the Kaiser said, your uncle would have given me a different answer, referring to the famous Moltke of the Wars of Unification. And he said, if I say it, it must be done. And indeed, an order went out, stopped the mobilization. And the men who were at the front of the German army, who had already got into Luxembourg, they'd already breached Luxembourg's neutrality, but they hadn't yet entered Belgium. They sat down on their haversacks and they waited for further orders.
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然后在这样的一个关头，威廉二世就是战争就不打不打不行的关头，他要求自己的总参谋长毛奇停止军事动员要求德国部队停止行军。他的总参谋员回复威廉二世，说，这是不可能的。皇帝。德国军队规模庞大，我们已经按照既定铁路路线开展部署，整台战争机器已经开始运动了。你不能简单的说停就停。铁路运输军队调动前线部署已经进入了不可逆转的状态，这个战争一定要打了。这个时候我们去看看威廉二世的反应，他竟然他对他对这个毛奇，他对他将军怎么说，总参谋长他对他怎么说。他说，如果你的叔父还在，他一定会给我一个不同的答案。
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And the men who were at the front of the German army, who had already got into Luxembourg, they'd already breached Luxembourg's neutrality, but they hadn't yet entered Belgium.
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那些位于德军最前沿的将军，那个时候已经进入卢森堡了，破坏了卢森堡的中立了，但是还没有踏入比利时，
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And that, I think, is important that nobody knew exactly how much weight Wilhelm carried within the German decision making apparatus.
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它极大的增加了国际体系中的不确定性，当时就没有人能够判断威廉二世在德国决策结构中，究竟还有多大的实权，
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And nobody knew what he was going to say next. That's already a large dose of uncertainty made the Austrians uncertain, for example.
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没有人能够预测他下一步会说什么、做什么，这种不可预测性成为了风险的一部分。这种不确定性在很长时间内让奥匈帝国在同盟关系中陷入困惑，因为他们不确定德国是不是会坚定的支持自己的行动。
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And that uncertainty within the Austro-German alliance was probably a risk heightening rather than a risk diminishing factor. In general, the story of 1914 seems to me to suggest that alliances in which the allies are uncertain of each other are more risk prone than alliances where everybody knows what everybody else is thinking and is working together in concert.
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因此，从更加宏观的视角来说，我们可以说这个1914年也揭示了一个国际政治的规律，就是在盟友之间缺乏理解，缺乏稳定的预期，彼此不确定对方行为的同盟体系中，危机爆发的概率会更高。