最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段委内瑞拉不是全球能源枢纽，伊朗处于霍尔木兹海峡、伊朗和海湾能源体系，以色列安全结构，美军海外基地网络关系都很近，一旦伊朗选择火力全开，那个油价上涨15%到20%不是象征性的波动，这是全球供应链的冲击。天然气生产暂停，意味着能源通胀。卡塔尔方已经宣布一家大型天然气生产商，因为伊朗的影响而暂停生产。那众所周知，在大宗商品市场上，只要供应减少，价格就会上涨。最终美国人会在加油站感受到冲击，这也是为什么在委内瑞拉问题上，国内美国国内选民几乎无感，
来源片段There is an attempt to close down the Straits of Hormuz, which is having already an effect on oil markets, depending on when you look. Crude is up 20 or 15 percent. The Qataris have stopped. A major Qatari natural gas producer has announced that it's stopping production because of an Iranian effect. And of course, commodities being the way they are, if you remove a chunk of supply, prices will go up for everyone. So eventually you'll have the gas pump ramifications for Americans.
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来源片段
Hello and welcome back to Unheard. We are in day three now of the new Iran war. Massive combat operations started on Saturday. We've had retaliatory strikes. We've had the UK getting involved every few hours. It feels like there are new developments here. What we wanted to focus on today is what this means in the battle of ideas inside the Trump administration.
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林2026年2月26日清晨，美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭大规模作战行动于周六启动，几乎每隔几个小时就会出现新的进展。今天我想聚焦的是，这场战争在马嘎特朗普阵营内部的思想博弈中已经带来了怎样的分裂。为什么马嘎阵营内部对特朗普袭击伊朗普遍感到不满。首先我仍给大家一个美国人的民调。我在路透社看到民调调查美国人是否赞成自己的国家袭击。伊朗目前有43%的美国人表示不赞成。
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Let's start by laying out for our audience what are these different factions or groups when it comes to foreign policy within the Trump administration.
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这个地图就是此时此刻在马卡阵营内部，在特朗普阵营内部，围绕外交政策存在着哪些不同的派别？
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There are definitely some of those in the Trump orbit because I know people who take a very narrow view of what the United States role on the world should be.
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在特朗普的核心圈子里面，有一些纯粹孤立主义者，他们对美国在世界上的角色持有非常狭隘的看法，
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Essentially, they take their cues from Thomas Jefferson's vision of an agrarian republic that doesn't have any imperial ambitions or interests, very narrow interests. They're there, I think probably a small group.
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他们的思想源头可以追溯到美国国父托马斯绝福逊那种农业共和国的理想愿景。美国在他们看来，应该是一个没有帝国，野心，没有海外扩张利益，只关心极为有限的国土内的国家利益的。
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Again, the US should not have an expansive scope of its role in the world, not get involved, especially not go in search of monsters abroad to destroy or to slay.
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同样认为，美国不应当在世界上扮演扩张性角色，尤其不应该主动去海外寻找问题，政府加以摧毁，
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Then related, again, but slightly different, are what are called the prioritizers. Those are people most notably the now US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, who believe that the primary challenge and opportunity for the United States in the 21st century lies in East Asia.
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再往下和上面这两套人就是纯粹孤立主义者和克制派相关。但是有略微不同的是，优先派就prioritizers其中最具代表性的人物是现任美国国防政策副部长奥执斯科比就这些优先派认为我们需要排序就是哪一些地方对于美国利益是最重要的。
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In the Pacific region, and that the main rival or adversary is China. Therefore, in a world of limited or scarce resources, the United States should not focus on regions that are maybe not as strategically important by comparison, especially the Middle East and Europe.
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因此呢，他们认为美国在21世纪面临的主要的挑战，在东亚在太平洋地区，就是中国主要对手是中国在资源有限甚至稀缺的世界里。美国不应该把精力放在相对而言，在战略重要性上较低的地区。
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It was very closely bound with the military establishment. I'm very respectful of that and pretty enthusiastic about overseas adventures in different fora, most famously in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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密切尊重军队在不同场合相当热衷于海外军事行动。最著名的例子当然就是伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争。
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He just said the Iraq war was a disaster, quote, a disaster.
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他说，伊拉克战争是一场灾难，就今天你听起来平淡无奇，但是当时是打破禁忌的。
S1：2 个窗口回退
来源片段
And you might remark on just how incredibly successful that transformation seems to have been, at least in terms of commentators and positions in the administration and the general tenor of the Republican Party now is unrecognizable from 10 years ago. It really feels like those kind of more neocon hawkish voices have been sidelined. There are a few when things John Bolton continues to surface. I remember Lindsey Graham sounding very enthusiastically next to Trump when he was talking about the Venezuela action, but they are not the dominant voices, at least in the media.
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就是这些道路虽然略微有点不同吧，但是他们的共同点在于都不是干预主义，都不是政权更迭，都不是自由议程，都不是国家建构，他们全盘否定小布什时代的那套东西，这是为什么表面上看起来特朗普接管共和党，但实际上特朗普实际上就是重新改变了共和党的议程。从评论界、媒体界到政府人士安排，共和党的整体基调和十年前，判若两党新保守主义的声音在过去十年内被彻底边缘化John Bolton成了孤岛Lindsey Graham成了旧时代的残影。在媒体面前，主流叙事不是说我们要去解放被压迫的人民主流叙事，变成了我们要避免愚蠢的战争。
来源片段
There are a few when things John Bolton continues to surface. I remember Lindsey Graham sounding very enthusiastically next to Trump when he was talking about the Venezuela action, but they are not the dominant voices, at least in the media. Yeah, I would have agreed with you until not long ago. But I think Lindsey is one of them. Senator Graham is one of the major forces behind this unfolding Iran war. But for a long time, you're right, it was it was so successful that even the Hawks had to form, you know, couch their arguments no longer, certainly not in terms of freedom or liberating oppressed peoples or any of that's that sort of pap.
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从评论界、媒体界到政府人士安排，共和党的整体基调和十年前，判若两党新保守主义的声音在过去十年内被彻底边缘化John Bolton成了孤岛Lindsey Graham成了旧时代的残影。在媒体面前，主流叙事不是说我们要去解放被压迫的人民主流叙事，变成了我们要避免愚蠢的战争。因此，当今天特朗普再度走向国际干预的时候，真正惊讶的是，很多MAGA内部的人在理论上，特朗普的这次行动违背了MAGA内部所有的主流外交思想。
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He used the word freedom.
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特朗普用了自由这个词。
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He said this is primarily about freeing the Iranian people so they can take control of their destiny or how exact wording was.
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特朗普说，这场行动主要是为了让伊朗人民获得自由，使他们能够掌握自己的命运。
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The United States military is undertaking massive and ongoing operation to prevent this wicked radical dictatorship from threatening America.
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特朗普的原话说，美国军方正在展开一场大规模持续进行的行动，以防止这个邪恶的激进独裁政权威胁。
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Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.
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小布什说的话，特朗普说，我们的目标是通过消除来自伊朗政权的迫在眉睫的威胁，来保护美国人民这种迫在眉睫的威胁。
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Again, that notion that there's an imminent danger that was very reminiscent of Iraq in 2003. A vicious group of very hard, terrible people.
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这种说法和03年伊拉克战争前的论调也极为相似。特朗普说，一个凶残、强硬可怕的集团威胁性直接危及美国伟大而自豪的伊朗人民。
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So he is directly encouraging a revolution and seeming to be saying that he's setting the environment, the conditions for regime change. So tell us about your reaction to that.
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当我们完成任务后，接管你们的政府，他将由你们掌握，他在直接鼓励革命，似乎在暗示自己正在为政权更迭、创造环境和条件，因此得出结论。
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It was such a pivot away from what President Trump promised to Republican primary voters and the general electorate in the 2024 election.
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他们说，我感到特朗普的声明令人刺耳几乎是特朗普在2024年共和党初选以及大选中向选民承诺的一次急转弯。
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We repeatedly heard from figures close to him and the president himself that this is going to be a vote for the peace campaign, that we are not going to do any more stupid wars.
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他们说，我们反复听到特朗普身边人物以及总统本人说，这将是一场和平竞选peace campaign,
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It's like taking a time capsule to the lead up to the Iraq war with talk of Iraqi freedom and the Iraqi people will now have the opportunity to take their destiny into their own hands and all of that. As well as the imminent threat, rhetoric, also very rareness.
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小布什的语言好像打开了一个时间胶囊，让回到了伊拉克战争的前夕。当时小布什也在讨论伊拉克自由讨论，伊拉克人民将有机会掌握自己的命运，讨论迫在眉睫的威胁，
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So my initial instinct was to assume that this must be the doing of Secretary of State and Acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio and maybe to a secondary extent, the White House Chief of Staff Suzy Wiles, both of them Floridians, both of them come from that hawkish milieu and orbit.
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一开始Maga阵营内的人揣测是国务卿兼代理国家安全顾问卢比奥Marco Rubio的作为，或许是辽牧长Suzzi Wiles的作为，因为这两个人都来自佛罗里达出身于外交鹰派的圈子和环境。
来源片段
But actually subsequent reporting I've done of talking to insiders and people close to insiders, congressional staffers and others, my understanding is that Marco Rubio certainly was not the driver of this. He's obviously a hawk and I can't see him being super opposed either, but he is not the primary driver.
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后来Sorab Amari报道说，他通过和Maga内部人士、国会、幕僚等交谈获得的后续信息显示，他现在的理解是Rubio卢比奥不是这一行动的主要推动者。
来源片段
He's obviously a hawk and I can't see him being super opposed either, but he is not the primary driver.
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虽然说他是鹰派人物，但他不是主要驱动者。
来源片段
So what I've heard, the consensus seems to be from the insiders I've spoken with, that this is really just led by President Trump himself.
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他从多位内部人士那里听到的共识是基本上是特朗普本人主导。
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And insofar as anyone influenced him, it was outside figures, not people within the cabinet or within the administration, again not Marco Rubio.
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如果说有人影响了他，那也是白宫之外的人，而不是内阁成员或者是行政当局内部人士。
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In the Senate, Senator Lindsey Graham in the broader media, the Fox News host, Mark Levine, was a very kind of old school, has a very boomer audience, very, very pro-war, everywhere sort of figure. But Lindsey Graham, let's just dwell on him for a moment because he's a real figure from history almost.
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目前我在多方看到的大家的共识是在参议院的Lindsey Graham格雷厄姆参议员在更广泛的媒体领域，有福克斯新闻主持人Mark Levin马克莱文，他也是一个老派人物，主要面向婴儿潮一代的观众就是老人嘛，就50岁以上的人在几乎所有问题上都非常的主战。
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They think that they defeated this and now they're the ones who are going to inherit the party and totally pivoted it away from the Middle East to other concerns, whether they think the concern should be to lock down the US border or whether it's to confront China or focus on our own industrial development. That's what they thought they had done.
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彻底的把美国从中东问题转到了其他关怀之上。对于他们来说，这些更重要的关怀是加强美国边境管控对抗中国，专注美国内工业发展，他们原以为已经完成的转向。
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He came in on that. His whole politics is steeped in the idea that that kind of expansionist action was just a waste of resources.
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他的一整个政治理念都建立在以下观点之上。他认为扩张性海外行动是浪费资源2024年。
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In 2023, he wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in which he said, the best thing about Trump is that he doesn't and won't start new wars.
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2023年万斯在华尔街日报发表专栏文章。
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His silence is eloquent enough, you might say. Well, he did retweet the president's prepared remarks. The president gave not an interview, but a kind of prepared interview from Mar-a-Lago. And since the war has started, the only communication, the public communication from Vance that I've seen, unless I'm wrong, correct me if I'm wrong, but the only thing that I've seen is him simply retweeting that video of the president's prepared remarks. Do you think this will now go wrong for the president? You've talked about how so much both of the young kind of online supporter group and big chunks of his actual administration, at least in theory, should be against this kind of action.
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万斯只是在战争爆发之后，转发了特朗普在海湖庄园发表的这个预录制讲话视频。但是除了转发之外，这是他至今为止唯一的公开操作。因此综合来看，我们没有办法断言他反对嘛。但是他的沉默你可以进行解读，自行解读OK播客。最后，我再提出一个我自己的观察，这些MAGA阵营内部的人也看得出来。特朗普如今动用美国权力、美国军事力量的方式和03年小布什动用美国军事力量的方式确实是不同的。
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And I'm tempted to believe that sometimes and I've said so, it's like I can't possibly be, but it's possible and or maybe more than possible that they really believe the stuff they say and that's the kind of that's my own, let's say surprise epiphany in the course of this war in particular in a way maybe that wasn't during the 12 day war is like this sense that not just the elites of the regime but lots and lots of Iranians inside Iran really believe in the project of the Islamic Republic. You know, as as ridiculous as it in a way seems to me if I put on my my own kind of cynical secular glasses, they like really believe in it.
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但是就像是我在分析伊朗那期播客最后说的，美国为什么打伊朗最后说的就是世俗的理性的分析者无法接受的一个令人不安的现实是，有可能人家是真的相信神权政治，人家真的相信真的相信抵抗，这是一套完全不同的逻辑。
S2：5 个窗口回退
来源片段
Welcome to The Rest is Politics US and another emergency live stream that we're doing. I think it's the second this week, Anthony. Obviously, because of the attacks launched by Israel and the United States against Iran, multiple attacks that have been going on for several hours now that were launched in early morning Iran time and retaliation that we're seeing from the Iranians across the region.
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林2026年2月26日清晨，美国和以色列对伊朗发动空袭大规模作战行动于周六启动，几乎每隔几个小时就会出现新的进展。今天我想聚焦的是，这场战争在马嘎特朗普阵营内部的思想博弈中已经带来了怎样的分裂。为什么马嘎阵营内部对特朗普袭击伊朗普遍感到不满。首先我仍给大家一个美国人的民调。我在路透社看到民调调查美国人是否赞成自己的国家袭击。伊朗目前有43%的美国人表示不赞成。
来源片段
If you look at that ABC poll, you don't have 100 percent of Republicans supporting this. And I think you've got like 20 percent who are very worried about some kind of military action in Iran. The fact that you have 56 percent who don't trust Donald Trump in the country world broadly to make the right decisions on this. This is not what this is two things. This is not what MAGA signed up for. This is not America first. They were not thrilled with the military action in Venezuela, but they tolerated it because it was one strike in and out. But we saw the polls around that beforehand.
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今天我想聚焦的是，这场战争在马嘎特朗普阵营内部的思想博弈中已经带来了怎样的分裂。为什么马嘎阵营内部对特朗普袭击伊朗普遍感到不满。首先我仍给大家一个美国人的民调。我在路透社看到民调调查美国人是否赞成自己的国家袭击。伊朗目前有43%的美国人表示不赞成。有30%的美国人表示不知道有27%的美国人表示赞成。但是我们把事前聚焦在马嘎阵营内部，对吧？我们来分析一下，特朗普在三天前对伊朗发动的这场战争，对他的支持者来说意味着什么？
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MAGA voices are trying to apart from people like Tucker Carlson, who have opposed this. But there are MAGA voices online who are saying this is great. This is what our president was elected to do. Nobody else has been brave enough to do this. He's strong enough. He can obliterate the Iranian threat. And look, maybe this does all work out like that. Maybe this all works out. But MAGA, as we have seen in poll after poll, want Donald Trump to focus on affordability and immigration. But they're happy with that now because the border is safe.
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但是随着特朗普MAGA越来越扩张，这些人内心开始盘算，我们能够如何和现实妥协，我们能够从特朗普身上捞点什么？那等特朗普成为总统之后，这些人总不能离开政治吧，对吧？所以我们可以说绝大多数共和党人实际上属于这个阵营，他们或多或少的在特朗普当选之后妥协，并且加入了MAGA逐步合理化。特朗普并且融入了MAGA结构建制派右翼政客的回流者，举几个最大的名字吧Lindsey Graham她在2016年初选的时候公开攻击。
来源片段
Remember, when your country's getting bombed, even if you don't like your government, you may end up siding with your government in terms of the self-defense of the country. It's an odd thing. People don't like their country being attacked. It's kind of weird by outside forces. We've sort of learned that recently. But I agree with you. I don't think I actually don't. And I also think MAGA and Republicans would not actually tolerate a big on the ground presence of American troops in Iran. I think that would be something that would lead to more, even more of a fracturing of MAGA. So I don't think this is another forever war, even if it's a few days. I think it's more likely to be a few days that ends up with a very messy situation in Iran than it is to be a long-running war like it was in Iran.
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对于此时此刻MAGA阵营内部的人来说，他们看待特朗普对于伊朗发动战争的这个事件，已经和十年前共和党建制派，就是新保守主义者看待对伊朗发生发动战争的看法是大相径庭的。虽然说美国老百姓可能暂时还没有得出结论，但是我已经听到大量MAGA阵营内部最嘹亮的声音。对于袭击伊朗这件事情表示出强烈的不满。为什么为什么我们必须要想要回答这个问题，我们必须要回到特朗普的崛起，特朗普的崛起，当然不仅仅是鉴于他对于此前共和党建制派的外交政策的批评之上的。
来源片段
Let's say they get rid of the regime. They successfully decapitate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. They successfully decapitate the nuclear program, this time actually decapitated, and they get rid of Ayatollah Khamenei. Let's say that happens and a way is opened up. I think there's the chances of this and our polling amongst you guys suggest this is also the case. I think it's not a clear possibility. But anyway, the way is wakened up for regime change in Iran, which is more Western friendly. A regime comes in that is more Western friendly.
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但是就像是我在分析伊朗那期播客最后说的，美国为什么打伊朗最后说的就是世俗的理性的分析者无法接受的一个令人不安的现实是，有可能人家是真的相信神权政治，人家真的相信真的相信抵抗，这是一套完全不同的逻辑。OK还有另外一点，如果美国的目标只是羞辱对手，那么行动可能已经成功了。但是如果美国的目标是摧毁核计划，推动政权崩溃，解放伊朗人民激发街头起义，那问题在于没有大规模民众政权没有崩溃啊，就反而出现了持续的反击。
S3：3 个窗口回退
来源片段
what do you take this administration's attitude to be towards proliferation? Because on the one hand, you do have President Trump on the record extremely hostile to the notion of an Iranian nuclear weapon. It was a major theme of his first term. He's reiterated that view multiple times over the last few weeks. We could talk about how much that view matches with the diplomatic strategy we see being pursued, but nevertheless, he's repeated it many times. On the other hand, some of the rhetoric, some of the action that you hear sort of leaking out of the Pentagon
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虽然说美国老百姓可能暂时还没有得出结论，但是我已经听到大量MAGA阵营内部最嘹亮的声音。对于袭击伊朗这件事情表示出强烈的不满。为什么为什么我们必须要想要回答这个问题，我们必须要回到特朗普的崛起，特朗普的崛起，当然不仅仅是鉴于他对于此前共和党建制派的外交政策的批评之上的。但是他对于这个此前外交政策的批评是特朗普崛起吸引他最忠实的支持者，一个非常非常重要的原因，可以说是核心原因。你之前在听我分析特朗普政策的时候，已经说过很多遍了。
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Israeli plans might be about this kind of thing. But you don't need to be a professional military planner to think through some of this stuff. That's a risky operation and an expensive operation in and of itself. At the end of the day, what are you really talking about here? Are we setting this thing back one year? Are we setting this thing back five years? What is the actual juice going to be as a consequence of the squeeze? And one argument is not enough. Argument two is even if it is a strike led by the Israelis, it's reckless. It's going to drag us into another Middle Eastern war. And if there's one thing we know that President Trump is against, it's against endless Middle
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伊朗政权建立在一种高度宗教化、革命化的叙事之上，我们可以戴着世俗的眼睛，看，他觉得那些实业派事业神圣使命圣战是宣传。但是就像是我在分析伊朗那期播客最后说的，美国为什么打伊朗最后说的就是世俗的理性的分析者无法接受的一个令人不安的现实是，有可能人家是真的相信神权政治，人家真的相信真的相信抵抗，这是一套完全不同的逻辑。OK还有另外一点，如果美国的目标只是羞辱对手，那么行动可能已经成功了。
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were smart, they would match strikes against nuclear capabilities with strikes against leadership assets and military assets. And this is really an opportunity to do severe damage to the regime in Iran, which again, as I said, is weaker than it has ever been since the end of the Iran-Iraq war. What are you watching? What are you paying attention to as these negotiations continue to play out? I think we've got a technical level meeting coming up and then a few days after that, another political level meeting. What are you monitoring and what do you think the scenarios
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最终美国人会在加油站感受到冲击，这也是为什么在委内瑞拉问题上，国内美国国内选民几乎无感，但是伊朗战争可能影响油价，可能影响股市可能影响军费消耗。更重要的是它触碰了马嘎阵营内部的意识形态张力。也就是说，这不是一次可以轻易包装成强硬胜利的行动OK今天我们就说到这里吧，未来这个战况和共和党内路线之争还会继续发酵，我也会随心所欲的更新，你就看着听吧，爱听不听。
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That this is fundamentally a theological opposition is brewing that can't be resolved by the kind of the tried and tested roots of democratic or secular politics. If they figure that out I think absolutely unequivocally the answer to that is no because if you read you can read online you can read the text of their cables and of their internal memos and all of this kind of thing and there is very little mention of that. It's constantly kind of rearranging the deck chairs on the deck of the Titanic kind of stuff. Now Jimmy Carter already out of his depth in Washington according to lots of people on Capitol Hill and kind of Washington insiders is totally out of his depth in kind of Middle Eastern foreign policy.
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意味着他摧毁了传统的共和党建制派民粹摧毁了建制。至今为止，建制派政客中还有寥寥几个never trumper,就是坚持到死，不支持特朗普，其中包括了比如说Liz CheneyAdam KissingerMit Romney这些人，我们可以说他们是传统共和党道德派的最后代表，现在要么被党内边缘化，要么被共和党基层清除，要么在党内失去位置，付出了政治代价，这就是我们这个播客在2024年美国大选分析，特朗普现象已经详细展开过无数次的内容。