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目标片段悼念的是在公元680年卡尔巴拉战争中殉难的伊玛姆侯赛。
来源片段Imam Hussein is killed by the forces of the Umayyad Caliph Yazid in the Battle of Karbala in 680.
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If you stick with me, you're going to see enormous and important things that I think are generally invisible to Western eyes when they look at this region. As we record, a debate is raging in the media, in the West, in the Middle East, over whether President Trump is actually going to order a military strike on Iran and whether it will accomplish its goal, which is to bring them back to the negotiating table, much more willing to compromise on their nuclear program, on the missile arsenal, on their production capabilities of those missiles, and maybe even if such a strike would have the capacity to topple the Ayatollahs regime. We explored this question in previous episodes, especially episode 79, where we tried to argue that this regime has a unique and extraordinary superpower, and that superpower is an ideological framework called the mukawama.
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这个核协议会在基本上剥夺他自己数十年来苦心积累的核能力。他愿意这么做吗？在播客的最后，我想要离开西方视角，或者说我们离开西方战略思维，我们从伊朗伊斯兰文明内部讨论，为什么事情会发展到这样一个地步，对吧？因为我们总结一下，过去发生了什么？今天周六清晨，美国袭击了伊朗、美国空军和以色列空军相互配合，打击了伊斯兰共和国的基础设施。我在播客一开始讲的是相对而言，最重要的两个。最近政治背景是第一个是在2025年6月份发动的12天战争。
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A few days ago, Steve Whitcoff was interviewed on Fox News, and he said explicitly that President Trump was curious about why Iran hadn't capitulated after he moved ships and aircraft carriers and massive amounts of troops and planes into striking distance of Iran. Wouldn't a rational regime just come back to the negotiating table more willing to negotiate?
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那么，在国际层面更加最近的情况是，在上周针对伊朗的威胁开始升级的时候，美国的中东特使Steve Whitcuff在接受福克斯新闻采访的时候表示，特朗普总统对伊朗未能接受美国关于核导弹计划的要求感到好奇，感到curious他不理解为什么伊朗不想接受？
S1：2 个窗口回退
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The regime hunkers down. That's the goal. To understand the most fundamental strength of the Iranian regime, its resilience on its own terms, in its own vocabulary, in its own religious vision, and therefore to see what needs to be part of any strategy for challenging them effectively. The goal, the foundational fundamental goal is that three-dimensional human beings emerge from our story. We will understand the Ayatollahs. We will understand why the Ayatollahs believe what they believe, why a rational, normative human being could come to that belief. It's not enough to throw out words, which Western media always does, like extremist or radicalized.
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就是我想说的是，我们要理解，为什么美国把航空母舰调到了波斯湾，有可能会导致伊朗政权更加固守阵地，而不是向美国屈服。我们就要理解这些阿雅图拉们就是伊朗的领袖们怎么看待世界？他们的世界观是什么？他们看待世界的框架是什么？我们必须要通过过去一个世纪的极端伊斯兰思想内部去分析。在这里，我要提到一个阿拉伯语词，是大多数。西方分析家从没有听说过的教义Mukawama教义Mukawama是一个阿拉伯语词，
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A Syrian-born preacher, Imam, named Izzadin al-Qassam, is in these hills. He is surrounded by British police who are hunting him for having killed Jews. He is not a bandit, or at least not a primitive bandit of any kind. He is actually a very sophisticated man, a sophisticated thinker, a product of Cairo's Al-Azhar University, the intellectual core of Sunni Arab Islam. He is deeply influenced by the milieu in Cairo of that time, of the very refined Islamic modernist thinker, modernizing thinker, Muhammad Abduk, who people will have heard on this podcast as the teacher of Rashid Rida.
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看来，伊朗政权就是在节节败退这一思想谱系中的第一个原型是叙利亚出生的传教士。伊斯典奥·卡萨姆，他于1935年在巴勒斯坦还是英国殖民地的时候，在巴勒斯坦附近的山丘上被英国警察包围击毙。他临终高呼，这是圣战，这是Jihad要么胜利，要么殉道。他毕业于开罗最保守的宗教大学，奥阿斯兰大学在那里学习了激进伊斯兰主义。刚刚还在成型的泛伊斯兰主义学说，将伊斯兰前程和反殖民武装力量结合起来，组织被剥夺的平民进入武装小组，
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To the modern Islamists, especially to Hamas, which named its battalion, its fighting forces, for al-Qassam, al-Qassam is the ultimate template.
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哈马斯把自己的军事组织以及哈马斯最常用的火箭命名为卡萨姆，就这个人的名字。
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This is all very valuable because the Iranians borrow a great deal from these developments. Another source of inspiration was the psychological layer given by Frantz Fanon. He's this famous writer, read in all the anti-colonial decolonization discourses on the modern American campus and Western campus generally. He's a psychiatrist from Martinique who joins the Algerian revolution in the 1950s. And he argues that colonialism, French colonialism in Algeria specifically, but colonialism writ large and imperialism writ large, they weren't just military occupations. They were psychological traumas for the local, for the native.
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可以通过拒绝被消灭来消耗技术优势更强的敌人。大家都听过这个伟人的名言，群众是海游击队是鱼。第二点是至今在西方后，殖民研究仍然被奋为神人的法农的理论。弗朗兹法农他在1950年加入阿尔及利亚革命。法农，认为，对于被殖民者而言，暴力是一种进化力量，暴力恢复自尊。它不仅是政治行为，更是心理行为。被殖民者在殖民统治下被去人化了，而拿起武器恢复了尊严，暴力赋予殖民者主体性，使他们从历史的被动课题转换为主动主体。
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It is violence in its natural state, and it will only yield when confronted with greater violence. The FLN's eight-year terror war against the French collapsed French Algeria, sent a million people packing back to France, people who had lived for generations in Algiers, white French Europeans.
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阿尔及利亚民族的解放阵线，通过八年的恐怖斗争，终结了法属阿尔及利亚验证了这个模式，通过迫使法国以极其残暴的方式捍卫自己统治的不公，在多年的冲突中可能有五十万个人在阿尔及利亚民族解放政线中丧生，他们迫使法国正式统治的终极代价，
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French settlers in Algeria can return to France. Israeli Jews don't have a metropolis, a metropole to return to. They don't have a powerful state that sent them to exploit and take over that land to go back to. But in the discourse of the Fideyin, this difference didn't make them question the underlying theory. It didn't make them ask, are Israelis actually susceptible to terrorism in the way French Algerians were? Or are we, in fact, destroying the Palestinian cause rather than destroying our ability to influence the Israelis, to push the Israelis, let's say, out of the West Bank rather than actually freeing Palestine?
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阿尔及利亚民族的解放阵线，通过八年的恐怖斗争，终结了法属阿尔及利亚验证了这个模式，通过迫使法国以极其残暴的方式捍卫自己统治的不公，在多年的冲突中可能有五十万个人在阿尔及利亚民族解放政线中丧生，他们迫使法国正式统治的终极代价，因此逼到了法殖民的阿尔及利亚的崩溃。为什么伊朗伊斯兰政权的行事方式对于西方战略思想来说不可理解。为什么西方战略思想的威慑，没有办法让伊朗把他们带到谈判桌上？我们必须要离开那套以理性行动者为出发点的西方战略思想。伊朗伊斯兰政权在做的事情放在我上面说的这套抵抗的意识形态中变得非常容易理解。
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The lecture was called Red Shiaism versus Black Shiaism.
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叫做红色什叶派对黑色什叶派Red Sheism vs Black Sheism.。
S1：2 个窗口回退
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And then Shariati contrasts that black Shiaism with red Shiaism. And there's a reason for red, obviously. Red Shiaism, he says, would undo all of that passivity. It's the original religion of Imam Hussein himself, he says, of protest, of revolution, of blood. That's how Shariati talks about red Shiaism. Catholic Marxists in South America recast Jesus as a Marxist social revolutionary. Shariati recasts Imam ! Hussain as a Marxist social revolutionary.
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但是沙利亚地说的是真正的什叶派。沙利亚地宣称，本质上是红色革命性的侯赛，因之死是为了推翻布公的世界政治秩序。侯赛因的榜样应该呼吁什叶派信徒去效法训道，去推翻统治秩序停滞的黑色什叶派必须被追求正义革命和抵抗的红色什叶派取代。正是在这种思想酝酿中，当时的传教士和组织者发动了1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命的霍梅尼构想了统治伊朗至今47年的伊斯兰共和国霍梅尼为这种思想混合找到了伊斯兰宗教内部的语言表达霍梅尼把这个思想给制度化了，
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In other words, he reinterprets Islam's weakness as its revolutionary preparation, its revolutionary call to lead the great revolution, to overturn the arrogant powers. Arrogant because they're secular, arrogant because they're powerful, arrogant because they impose their culture on everybody else, arrogant because their secularism is a rebellion against God. And therefore, God would inherently be on their side precisely because of their humility, of their poverty, of the purity with which they engage in this world revolution. And if God is on their side, how can they lose? He literally said in the speech to the oppressed of the world, May 1979, the superpower of the mustadafin, of the weak, or the humble, will triumph over the superpower of the mustakbirin.
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针对伊斯兰国家在现代政治地缘中的弱势，霍梅尼把这种弱势重新塑造成是精神上的超级力量。弱者在精神上比依赖物质权力的西方傲慢者要来得更加纯洁。为什么这些西方人在他的这个古兰经叙事中变成了傲慢者，就是Mustaddafin他们傲慢，是因为他们依赖经济力量，依赖军事力量。他们傲慢是因为他们宣称个人主义、民主自由要优于宗教专制弱者。在这套叙事中享有真主的庇护。因此，他们最终的胜利是不可避免的，物质上的弱小被转化成虔诚的证明。
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Khomeini argued that one pious fighter would be able to defeat ten decadent Western soldiers.
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霍梅尼宣称，一个虔诚的战士，可以击败十个堕落的西方士兵，就像先知穆罕默德在624年的白特尔战役中，
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Muqawama is a never-ending holy war, whose ultimate goal is the redemption of humanity, through the redemption of Islam. Or at least the redemption of the humble and the weak of humanity against the arrogant and evil and superficially powerful. And Muqawama, therefore, makes this regime unbelievably bad as a government. Iran can never flourish under tyrants who think in these ways, but also unbelievably resilient to conventional military pressure.
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以寡敌众实现这种不对称胜利的机制，就是殉道战死，不是抵抗的代价，而是抵抗的最高表达死亡，是接近真主，是预先去体验最终的救赎。这就是我刚才说的穆卡瓦这个抵抗的教义，这是一个持续了数代获得在伊朗获得宗教合法性的永久圣战。它的武器是愿意承受无限毁灭在这个基础之上，我们能够理解伊朗伊斯兰政权的内部逻辑，对吧？这是为什么在西方战略思维看来，他们是完全匪夷所思的，也正是如此。
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Between 2006 and 2011, between the Second Lebanon War and the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was the most admired leader in the Sunni Arab world, never mind the Shia. He was the Robin Hood of the Middle East.
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当伊朗支持的真主党进入叙利亚内战，支持阿萨德的时候，他的领导人纳斯鲁拉在阿拉伯世界是非常非常受到尊重的。但是在叙利亚的残酷镇压之后，他的声誉崩溃了，这位自称为被压迫者捍卫的运动，竟然成为了屠杀穆斯林的贵子手。
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So after that war, that's when Gaman polls 70% of Iranians just don't want the Islamic Republic. Those who said they do, explicit support for the supreme leader, for Khamenei, and for the principles of the 1979 revolution, collapses to 11%.
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最后，我们必须要回到伊朗内部VPN调查数据显示，哈美内伊和1979年革命原则的支持者目前已经跌至11%70%的受访者希望政权下台有近三分之二的伊朗人认为，去年伊朗以色列的12天战争和国家利益无关。
S1：2 个窗口回退
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That's now being turned on its head. There's some extraordinary things you find when you begin to poke around in the Persian internet. Since 2019, you have young Iranians talking about a new Thaura, a new revolution. Talking about it in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Iran. Directly challenging the mukawama. They say the resistance has become a parasite, a shield for corrupt elites. Who, they ask in Iran today, is the arrogant and the corrupt? And who is the weak and humble and willing to martyr themselves for liberation?
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但是他们撒谎说是美国大巴扎的商人高喊，他们拿走我们的面包，去给黎巴嫩买火箭、伊朗货币暴跌、水电短缺，政权关闭互联网，并且进行大规模镇压。年轻人正在重写伊朗故事。他们在加密平台上制作讽刺作品，将殉道叙事反转，用跳舞取代哀悼仪式。用沙利亚地的我刚才说那个黑色实业派的批评来反过来指控伊朗伊斯兰共和国，你们才是新的压迫者。这不是边缘人士在抗议，而是伊朗社会内部的免疫系统，就是他们的人民本身。
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You challenge the intersectionality of oppression that the regime uses to deny self-determination to their own people. When a protester is shouting in Iran, neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran, they're surgically delinking the pieces of the mukhawama. They're cutting the arteries. The goal is to make the mukhawama look not like a global liberation movement, but like a kind of homegrown colonial foreign project that colonized Iran from within. It's the denial of Iranian freedom and Iranian self-determination using Western ideas bastardized and forced onto a kind of Islamic vocabulary. Three, audit.
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它把20世纪所有的激进革命思想和什叶派神学结合，而它正在失败伊斯兰政权的意识形态失去了道德免疫力，它无法回应人们真正想要的无法回应人民真正想要的东西。生活不是殉道，不是坟墓，生活是咖啡馆，是巴扎，是未来，是一个运转良好的国家。当霍梅尼试图召唤整个文明投入永恒战争。那么那些如今在街上高喊，我的生命属于伊朗的抗议者，拒绝这种召唤，他们要求的不是换政府，他们要求的是终结一套和国家生存不相容的意识形态。
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And also how Israelis are experiencing this moment. But first, just what has been Iran's response?
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所以本期播客我只是跟大家汇报一下，究竟在发生什么？以及从伊朗伊斯兰政权内部，他会如何看待和理解这场袭击？
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So if we look at priorities of the first strike, it's hitting the leadership, both military leadership, decapitating military leadership, doing something on a broader scale than Israel did during the 12-day war. I remind us that one of the reasons that the Iranians were unable to respond was because their entire chain of command and control was decapitated or most of it was decapitated.
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如果我要对此进行一个总结，我会说在12天战争中就是25年6月。那场战争中，以色列不仅在相当大的程度摧毁了伊朗的核设施，而且它也证明了伊朗伊斯兰政权在军事层面是没有反击能力的，是雷若的。
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We saw a video of an Iranian missile hitting what was described to be as the American base in Bahrain. Missiles were shot to the UAE, to Qatar and other countries in the region.
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就目前看来就是在我说这句话的这一刻，伊朗针对巴林的袭击，似乎是在针对美国的海军基地，他针对卡塔尔的袭击，看起来有可能是在针对美国的空军基地。
S2：6 个窗口回退
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Missiles were shot to the UAE, to Qatar and other countries in the region. Missiles hit in Syria, in southern parts of Syria. So they are basically answering with drones, ballistic missiles and other means. Now, if you look at what you could have expected with this kind of strike, definitely the Iranians are not as impressive with their response as of yet. But we need to be extremely careful about that. And I want to underline this. These are really early hours.
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卡塔尔方也表示，他已经挫败了多次伊朗针对美国空军基地的袭击。我们在约旦境内也有美国的军事资产。因此，我们看到伊朗对于这些中东其他国家的袭击，似乎试图在区分攻击这些国家境内的美国基地和攻击。这些国家本身。但是无论如何，伊朗针对这些中东国家的袭击，已经在海湾地区引发了极为强烈的敌对反应。沙特阿拉伯已经发表声明OK 我在这里无法详细解释这些海湾阿拉伯兄弟国家之间的破事。我们这个播客对于中东的关注可以基本上说就是集中在伊朗和阿拉伯使游玩。
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But now that the Iranians are retaliating against the Gulf states, they're pretty clear in their condemnation of Tehran. So, I think Iran is increasingly isolated. Internationally, we'll see what other countries say. I think the German chancellor is supposed to be in Washington early next week. We'll see if he comes. But he has actually been quite steadfast in his support for Israel and strongly critical of the regime in Iran. So, it may be surprising that of all presidents, President Trump ends up getting quite a lot of international support for this action. Nedav, in terms of the trajectory of this war, where it goes from here, and I know there's going to be a lot of twists and turns, as there always are, so we won't hold you to it.
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你可以说是前福克斯一姐Megan Kelly他就说就卡尔森说，特朗普总统并不想在伊朗打仗，但是他可能别无选择，因为他被以色列胁迫了。那么就在今天上午，卡尔森把伊朗美国对于伊朗的打击称为绝对令人作呕，而且邪恶。没错，我在这里非常抱歉，我在这期播客一直在把试图把大家引向我之前已经说过的内容，但问题就在于我们要考虑的因素过多，对吧？所以说我在这里简单的解释就是在特朗普阵营内部存在着一个非常严重的争纷相对的分裂，就是特朗普阵营内部有一批支持以色列的力量和一批信奉美国优先，
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And I would love to hear your analysis as to that. Dan, if I can just jump in. I mean, I think the ICBM issue is a really, really important issue. And President Trump has emphasized this. This caused a lot of controversy where he made it very clear that Iran has got an active intercontinental ballistic missile program with only one address for those ICBMs, which are nuclear tipped. And that's the American homeland. And he made a big deal of foot stomping this. And I think that's really important because there's a lot of discussion about the ballistic missile program, the threat to Israel, the threat to Gulf allies, U. S. forces, certainly Europe. I mean, there are dozens of these missiles that can reach the European heartland.
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那么就在今天上午，卡尔森把伊朗美国对于伊朗的打击称为绝对令人作呕，而且邪恶。没错，我在这里非常抱歉，我在这期播客一直在把试图把大家引向我之前已经说过的内容，但问题就在于我们要考虑的因素过多，对吧？所以说我在这里简单的解释就是在特朗普阵营内部存在着一个非常严重的争纷相对的分裂，就是特朗普阵营内部有一批支持以色列的力量和一批信奉美国优先，意味着绝对的孤立主义的力量。这个我在美国内部如何看待伊朗这些播客里面已经详细的分析过，这就是后者这群孤立主义的力量是反对以色列的。
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But, I mean, I think President Trump has made it clear he's not going to wait for Iran to develop ICBMs. He's not going to punt that to the next president. He's going to take care of this threat. And I think this is President Trump's view about the Iranian threat in general. He is not going to kick the can down the road, which is the typical Washington game, and kick it to his predecessor. Because I think he doesn't think his predecessor is going to deal with this issue with the same clarity and the same force that he will. And so for that reason, I think he's been very much embraced going after this missile program, going after this nuclear program, and really doing things that I think are still surprising his base and certainly surprising many experts in Washington.
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第二点，内特尼亚胡还说服了特朗普，他认为，只要来几次重大打击，再加上一些强硬的威胁，伊朗就会崩溃得出这个观点的伊朗专家Trieta Parsi最近发了一条推文。他说，特朗普对伊朗的根本性误判在于，他相信神权领导层会害怕美国航母以及美国的火力，因此选择投降，恰恰相反。他们对投降的恐惧要远远大于对于战争的恐惧。我认为这是一个重要的洞见。我在播客的后半段会对此加以分析。我们在考虑伊朗这个国家的时候，要分开考虑这个神权政权的利益和伊朗人，伊朗这个国家的利益。
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And now it looks like this is not only might be the beginning of the end for the regime. It's definitely the end physically for many of these leaders. And this opens an avenue of change across the region. This is how Israelis see it. Now, I'm not downplaying the dangers and the risks involved with this and how complex the situation is specifically for the United States or that the United States has different interests than Israel in that sense. But for Israelis, this is a moment of reckoning for the Iranian regime. They have killed more Israelis than any other regime in history.
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他们对投降的恐惧要远远大于对于战争的恐惧。我认为这是一个重要的洞见。我在播客的后半段会对此加以分析。我们在考虑伊朗这个国家的时候，要分开考虑这个神权政权的利益和伊朗人，伊朗这个国家的利益。对于伊朗执政者来说，他的最高利益是他的生死存亡，而不是对于伊朗这个国家作为一个共同体，作为他里面的人民，什么是好的？对于伊朗伊斯兰政权的最高领袖来说，他已经86岁了，他在1989年以来一直执政，就是哈尔梅伊是世界上在位时间最长的独裁者，
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And the last thing he wants is a deal with the orange man where he gives up this nuclear infrastructure that he has spent decades building, half a trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs, paid an enormous price. And how humiliating that would be for Khamenei. So Khamenei would rather die a martyr. It turns out maybe he has. We'll wait to find out the confirmation. Then give in to the United States. But in doing so, he's put the Islamic Republic at risk. I want to just take a moment here because we're very caught up in the minute to minute and hour to hour.
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对于伊朗伊斯兰政权的最高领袖来说，他已经86岁了，他在1989年以来一直执政，就是哈尔梅伊是世界上在位时间最长的独裁者，他难道希望自己的政治遗产是向美国的那个橙色男人屈服，然后同意美国提出的全面核协议吗？这个核协议会在基本上剥夺他自己数十年来苦心积累的核能力。他愿意这么做吗？在播客的最后，我想要离开西方视角，或者说我们离开西方战略思维，我们从伊朗伊斯兰文明内部讨论，为什么事情会发展到这样一个地步，对吧？
S3：6 个窗口回退
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Obviously, because of the attacks launched by Israel and the United States against Iran, multiple attacks that have been going on for several hours now that were launched in early morning Iran time and retaliation that we're seeing from the Iranians across the region. So far, no indications. The reports coming in, there have been no American casualties. There are various reports of casualties coming in from Iran, including one report of a school being struck in the country. But we're in a phase, Anthony, where things are moving very fast. The president has made a statement saying that this could last several days. He's warning Americans that there could be American casualties. He says this is what happens. When you go to war. And he is also, I think, one of the most important things about the statement that he put out on social media was saying to the people of Iran that this could be their best chance to overthrow their government.
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那么在2025年12月底，伊朗爆发全国性示威之后，特朗普曾经承诺向伊朗人民伸出援手。到了今天早上，美国已经发动战争，他不仅打击了伊朗的核基础设施导弹库存和海军力量，还直指该政权的领导层本身。这是特朗普迄今以来总统任内最大的一次豪赌吧。可以说，我先来说说发生了什么。此时此刻，全球所有新闻机构都在拼命抢时间，试图实时拼凑出完整的信息。美国在伊朗境内的打击，我们从社交媒体的画面上大致可以看得出来，美国已经命中了主要的政府首都主要的文化中心以及主要的宗教中心。
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But we're in a phase, Anthony, where things are moving very fast. The president has made a statement saying that this could last several days. He's warning Americans that there could be American casualties. He says this is what happens. When you go to war. And he is also, I think, one of the most important things about the statement that he put out on social media was saying to the people of Iran that this could be their best chance to overthrow their government. So a lot happening. That's why we thought we would come and join you all with our take on it. Thank you for joining us, all of you from all over the place, from Australia, from Britain, from the US.
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这些国家绝对不仅仅是美国的走狗，他们的利益不适合美国绑定的OK话说回发动战争的美国特朗普在今天早上周六凌晨发布了一段长达八分钟的全球讲话。在这段讲话的结尾，特朗普直接向伊朗人民发出呼吁。他说，你们自由的时刻已经到来，待在避难所里，不要离开家门，外面非常危险，导弹将无处不在的落下，等我们完成行动，你们就接管你们的政府，它将属于你们，这或许是你们几代人以来唯一的机会。OK以上是我对正在发生的事情的总结，让我在这里停一下来解释为什么我在播客一开始说，对于我来说，
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But the president has, as we saw in Iran and we saw in Venezuela, he actually has quite a lot of power before he has to ask for the budgetary authority. And if he's not sending troops in on the ground, I think that gives him further authority. Right. So in international terms, this he would have to say there was an imminent danger. Clearly, there wasn't an imminent danger. I mean, America is in less danger today than it was when it struck Iran last summer because it had incapacitated quite a large chunk of the Iranian nuclear capability. And even then, there was a big debate about whether America was in imminent danger.
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所以我才会在一开始说，在我看来，过去几周在我一直看来都是一个什么时候会打仗。而不是会不会打仗的问题。因为美国这么大规模的向该地区部署力量并不容易。从全世界各地抽离资源，让他们无限期的停在那总归是有什么事要发生的？在委内瑞拉行动前期，当时的军事分析人士就在那说，拜托这个信号已经很明显了。美国集结了如此多的资源部署到委内瑞拉，不可能让他就无限期的停在那，对吧？在某个时点，他必须要发动打击OK.
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So, again, I'm in a very tough spot because I'm a patriotic American. I love my country. I love our servicemen. And this is what Trump does. This is the duality of Trump. You're going to war against Iran. If you denounce it, you're coming across as unpatriotic. But I'm not trying to do that. I'm trying to analyze this for people from a historical perspective. He is hurting us in a way that is indescribable, Katty. Okay. So, to your point of view. And by the way, even though the – and talk about why the Australians and the Canadians are supporting this. So, that's – I think this is the interesting question, is that I hear what you're saying about international law.
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那么就在今天上午，卡尔森把伊朗美国对于伊朗的打击称为绝对令人作呕，而且邪恶。没错，我在这里非常抱歉，我在这期播客一直在把试图把大家引向我之前已经说过的内容，但问题就在于我们要考虑的因素过多，对吧？所以说我在这里简单的解释就是在特朗普阵营内部存在着一个非常严重的争纷相对的分裂，就是特朗普阵营内部有一批支持以色列的力量和一批信奉美国优先，意味着绝对的孤立主义的力量。这个我在美国内部如何看待伊朗这些播客里面已经详细的分析过，这就是后者这群孤立主义的力量是反对以色列的。
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Why did this have to be done right now when he told us he'd obliterated Iran's nuclear program last summer? Were they rebuilding it this quickly? Were they on the point of launching an attack against the United States? Was there some we we have not heard that? And that's why you've got members of Congress saying we need more briefing on this to be happy with this action. So Democratic members of Congress members of Congress are keeping quiet about this. Well, I think it's important for people to understand the psychology because I have said on this program that Trump is going to move the goalposts on you. You're loyal to me. Yes, I am.
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这个核协议会在基本上剥夺他自己数十年来苦心积累的核能力。他愿意这么做吗？在播客的最后，我想要离开西方视角，或者说我们离开西方战略思维，我们从伊朗伊斯兰文明内部讨论，为什么事情会发展到这样一个地步，对吧？因为我们总结一下，过去发生了什么？今天周六清晨，美国袭击了伊朗、美国空军和以色列空军相互配合，打击了伊斯兰共和国的基础设施。我在播客一开始讲的是相对而言，最重要的两个。最近政治背景是第一个是在2025年6月份发动的12天战争。
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Remember, when your country's getting bombed, even if you don't like your government, you may end up siding with your government in terms of the self-defense of the country. It's an odd thing. People don't like their country being attacked. It's kind of weird by outside forces. We've sort of learned that recently. But I agree with you. I don't think I actually don't. And I also think MAGA and Republicans would not actually tolerate a big on the ground presence of American troops in Iran. I think that would be something that would lead to more, even more of a fracturing of MAGA. So I don't think this is another forever war, even if it's a few days. I think it's more likely to be a few days that ends up with a very messy situation in Iran than it is to be a long-running war like it was in Iran.
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我最后想说的是，他这个穆卡瓦嘛，这套教育在伊朗内部的威胁，并不是因为来自西方的压力，不是因为以色列的军事成功，而是因为他内部矛盾的积累重重，以及被以及被他摧毁的人民的愤怒。从这个逻辑出发，你才能理解为什么美国的施压伊朗军队在事实上比这些以色列比美国要弱小，反而在政权层面能够强化他们的抵抗逻辑，能够强化他们的穆卡瓦嘛逻辑。因为他的这个穆卡瓦嘛，这套教育的武器是我愿意承受无限毁灭战略问题。因此，在这里必须要发生改变，问题，不在于是否打击伊朗的核设施导弹，基础设施问题在于紧靠物质打击，
S4：3 个窗口回退
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as is the case for Israel, why that would be a matter of pressing concern. We're not Saudi Arabia, we're not Israel, we're a bit further away. We have a massive nuclear arsenal. The notion that the Iranians would use their nuclear weapons to strike America or Americans, well, seems like it would invite American retaliation that the Iranian regime, possibly the Iranian nation as a historical entity, could not survive. So deterrence seems possible on some level. We've spent so much effort and so
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卡塔尔方也表示，他已经挫败了多次伊朗针对美国空军基地的袭击。我们在约旦境内也有美国的军事资产。因此，我们看到伊朗对于这些中东其他国家的袭击，似乎试图在区分攻击这些国家境内的美国基地和攻击。这些国家本身。但是无论如何，伊朗针对这些中东国家的袭击，已经在海湾地区引发了极为强烈的敌对反应。沙特阿拉伯已经发表声明OK 我在这里无法详细解释这些海湾阿拉伯兄弟国家之间的破事。我们这个播客对于中东的关注可以基本上说就是集中在伊朗和阿拉伯使游玩。
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Iranians would use their nuclear weapons to strike America or Americans, well, seems like it would invite American retaliation that the Iranian regime, possibly the Iranian nation as a historical entity, could not survive. So deterrence seems possible on some level. We've spent so much effort and so we've run such risks over the years trying to keep an Iranian nuclear weapon from coming into existence. Why? Why not just accept that on some level that might be inevitable and actually it's a pretty manageable situation? Well, first it's worth noting that yes, Iran can reach the United
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西方战略思维建立在理论之上，伊斯兰革命运动和政权并不按照西方分析者通常理解的理性方式行事，为什么他们会走到悬崖边缘？为什么要冒险去考验特朗普发动一场可能摧毁甚至推翻伊朗政权的战争的意愿，而不是回到谈判桌上，在弹导导弹和什么又浓缩计划方面做出一些让步。就是我想说的是，我们要理解，为什么美国把航空母舰调到了波斯湾，有可能会导致伊朗政权更加固守阵地，而不是向美国屈服。我们就要理解这些阿雅图拉们就是伊朗的领袖们怎么看待世界？
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to understand about this regime is that having lost their capabilities, even for a year or two, that is a devastating blow to the legitimacy of this regime. And if the Israelis and Americans were smart, they would match strikes against nuclear capabilities with strikes against leadership assets and military assets. And this is really an opportunity to do severe damage to the regime in Iran, which again, as I said, is weaker than it has ever been since the end of the Iran-Iraq war. What are you watching? What are you paying attention to as these negotiations continue to
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我最后想说的是，他这个穆卡瓦嘛，这套教育在伊朗内部的威胁，并不是因为来自西方的压力，不是因为以色列的军事成功，而是因为他内部矛盾的积累重重，以及被以及被他摧毁的人民的愤怒。从这个逻辑出发，你才能理解为什么美国的施压伊朗军队在事实上比这些以色列比美国要弱小，反而在政权层面能够强化他们的抵抗逻辑，能够强化他们的穆卡瓦嘛逻辑。因为他的这个穆卡瓦嘛，这套教育的武器是我愿意承受无限毁灭战略问题。因此，在这里必须要发生改变，问题，不在于是否打击伊朗的核设施导弹，基础设施问题在于紧靠物质打击，