最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段十年前，沙特空军拥有除美国以外，全球第二大的F15战机编队。没错。
来源片段The Saudi Air Force, even 10 years ago, has the second largest F-15 squadron in the world outside of the US.
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来源片段
So before we dive into these stories, let's just turn the table around to better understand MBS's point of view. What has been shaping MBS's political and geopolitical moves these past months, and also maybe take us back to before these past few months, where we thought Saudi Arabia was on one path, and now you and others would argue he's on a different path? Thanks, Dan.
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因此，我们可以说是沙特政治改革的失败，意味着一整个石油、海湾政治版图，乃至于一整个中东政治版图正在发生正在发生相应的变化。首先我要向大家解释MBS在2015年开始，在沙特试图推进的政治改革究竟是一个怎样的改革？
来源片段
About a decade ago, MBS embarked on a path that is a 180-degree divergence from three pillars of a 100-year-old policy or political reality in Saudi Arabia.
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这是一条和沙特这个国家在过去100年建国以来的三个政治现实，三大政策支柱，完全相反的改革道路180度大转向MBS把他的这我接下来会介绍的这一系列的这个政治改革命名为2030愿景。
来源片段
About a decade ago, MBS embarked on a path that is a 180-degree divergence from three pillars of a 100-year-old policy or political reality in Saudi Arabia. One, 100 years of oil, easy capital in zero agency, kind of numbing any idea of creativity in the Saudi private sector.
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在我看来，针对三个不同方向的有关沙特这个国家中流砥柱的政治现实。第一，过去100年，沙特建立在石油经济上。
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The second piece was 100 years of misogyny. We are entering a phase in the last five, six years and women are allowed to sort of walk around in public in Saudi Arabia.
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第二个，政治改革是长达100年的业女文化。沙特阿拉伯长期以严格的性别隔离制度，铸成女人在出行就业公共生活中面临着极大的制度性限制。
来源片段
We are entering a phase in the last five, six years and women are allowed to sort of walk around in public in Saudi Arabia.
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过去五六年出现的变化，包括女性开始被允许在越来越多的公共空间中自由活动。
来源片段
In many ways, Mohammed bin Salman is trying to do three things at the same time, to be li kwan yo of Singapore to drive Saudi Arabia from third world to first when it comes to knowledge, economy, creativity, AI and so on. He's trying to be Martin Luther, create a reform in Islam, kind of shaping a different dynamic with the Wahhabi sect in Saudi Arabia and remove them from diplomatic and state corridors when it comes to policy and to bring women into the workforce, a person who brings in proper equality.
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他想把沙特从第三世界经济带向第一世界经济就李光耀给新加坡做的事情。他想在沙特阿拉伯再做一遍在知识经济、创造力、人工智能等等领域提现实现跃升。
来源片段
He's trying to be Martin Luther, create a reform in Islam, kind of shaping a different dynamic with the Wahhabi sect in Saudi Arabia and remove them from diplomatic and state corridors when it comes to policy and to bring women into the workforce, a person who brings in proper equality. All of that then, in less than 15 years, with clear KPIs for 2030.
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他希望在伊斯兰世界内部推动一场改革。他希望重新塑造沙特阿拉伯和瓦哈比派，就是这个保守复古伊斯兰运动之间的关系，把宗教从外交、
来源片段
All of that then, in less than 15 years, with clear KPIs for 2030.
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于是在MBS当年宣布了2030愿景，就十年前宣布了2030愿景之后，意味着他计划在不到15年的时间里面完成。
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This is a man who could be running Saudi Arabia for like, you know, the next half century almost.
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当时的共识是，这个人将会在未来将近半个世纪里面掌握着沙特，他会长期掌权。
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So the fact that he has been empowered and empowered himself and the people around him to be on this path over the last decade and the fact that it's understood that he's such a strong power within the kingdom that he will be around for so long. Every move he makes here that you just described, it's not just like important in the moment. The stakes are extraordinary for like decades to come. Our listeners, some of them will remember that the first thing he did is put the elite of all those three segments in the Ritz Carlton in Saudi Arabia in a form of a very prestigious house arrest in preparing the ground for royal recalibration of wealth so that Saudi Aramco can go public.
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就是他上台做第一件事，是他把我刚才说的上面三个领域里面有权威的经济领域、政治领域和社会领域。三个领域中的沙特精英全部都集中到了首都利亚德的利兹卡尔顿酒店，就在这个五星级酒店里面给他们搞豪华软禁。真的，你记得那个新闻吗？那个新闻当时很有名，就把人家硬生生的全部精英就关在那。这当时是很大的一个新闻，这个操作是不是听起来特别原始，就像是沙漠部落会干的事，就你要是不同意我，
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We know now that it turns order magnitude 130, 140 billion dollar net profit per year for the kingdom.
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每年能够给沙特王国带来约1300至1400亿美金的净利润。
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Saudi Arabia and the Crown Prince is interested above everything else in stability in the region so that he can try and achieve his goals for 2030. Yemen threatened that to the tune, Dan, of firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia.
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作为王储NBS,最关心的是地区稳定性地区，要是不稳定他的2030愿景就是在做白日梦，但是当时也门的局势动荡，也门内部的胡塞武装势力还在向沙特发射导弹弹道导弹构成了稳定上的威胁。于是沙特阿拉伯要去也门发动军事情动OK说到这里，谁闻着味就来了。
来源片段
He's also won some criticism in Western capitals because of that. At the end of the day, though, the big tension of his first round into the 2030 vision came actually from the Democratic side, where he was not willing to accept the notion of freedom of press, which is what you need to build a knowledge economy.
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西方对于沙特在野门的干预上面，他的评价也开始对NBS变得非常负面。但是事实上NBS的2030沙特愿景接受到遭受到第一波大挫折是来自于民主的一侧。
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One was on September 23rd, 2023, so 16 days before October 7th, in which the Prime Minister of Israel speaking at the UN General Assembly.
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一个最明显的例子是在2023年9月23日，以色列总理在联合国大会发言的时候，谈及沙特外交正常化这个问题。
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Except for the Saudi diplomat. And soon after that speech, Prime Minister Netanyahu, MBS is asked about it in an interview and he says something that's certainly not brushing it aside or shooing it away.
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当时许多其他阿拉伯外交官，其他国家的阿拉伯外交官都退场表示抗议了纷纷离场。但是沙特外交官没有随后MBS在采访中，对于和以色列关系的正常化，他的回应从来都没有否定过。
来源片段
At the end of the day, he's a political figure. His vision is underperforming. His debt is rising. Oil is still dominating. So his economic KPIs are slipping, and so he has to compensate it politically. So I don't want to undermine the effect it has on Israel. In practical terms, there have been Saudi-linked narratives that have been framing the UAE, for instance, as Israel's Trojan horse, and even as Israel's proxy executing Zionist plans. So that's rhetoric that is risky. It's turning normalization into ammunition and really becoming a political tool more than anything else. Okay.
目标片段
就是综上所述，MBS这位沙特王储沙特的实际掌权人在尝试的是现代沙特历史上最雄心勃勃的政治转向。但是，现实数据并不配合他的梦想，雄心也心在雄伟归根结底，他是一个政治人物，他的政治愿景的事实就是十年之后表现不佳，沙特的债务一直在上升，石油仍然到了今年占据沙特经济主导地位，沙特在外资规模、财政稳定性、经济结构转型深度上，现实数据从来都没有匹配2030计划一开始宣布的雄心转型正在发生。
来源片段
I have heard, Yonatan, Mbz described as a mentor to MBS. So when we want to understand the magnitude of the change, these two men have had a long-standing relationship that was framed many times by Muhammad bin Salman himself as him being the mentee of Muhammad bin Zayed of UAE, basically being the mentor, not just for him, but for the entire region.
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就阿联酋的MBZ是沙特MBS的导师，这两个人长期之间存在着一种非常友好的关系。这个关系多次被沙特王储MBS本人描绘成。
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They've collaborated around mutual interests in line with Muhammad bin Salman's 2030 goals.
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这两个人不仅拥有着相互信任的关系，而且还围绕着沙特2030愿景一致的共同利益展开过大量合作，
S1：3 个窗口回退
来源片段
To keep it simple, the UAE supported a separatist movement in Yemen that had gained, a couple of months ago, access to the shores and declared itself an independent movement of democratic nature, if you will, or at least pro-west, pro-U. E, anti-Houthi, anti-Iran type of territory. They call themselves the Southern Transitional Council. The SDC, exactly. The SDC and the Emirates are supporting this SDC. This resulted in what was perceived as the UAE supporting some kind of military action right by Saudi Arabia's border and this forced Saudi Arabia to basically give some ultimatum to the Emirates to pull back their support for the SDC or this one particular military operation.
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所以在这个基础之上，我们才可以开始理解沙特和阿联酋具体闹掰的这个契机。契机是在野门，就是在野门的时候，阿联酋支持了一个分离主义运动。这个分离主义运动自称是南方过渡委员会，它叫什么不重要？重要的是，这股势力是一股亲西方亲阿联酋反胡塞反伊朗的民主性质独立运动。更重要的是这个运动获得了野门海湾的控制权。于是阿联酋选择支持这个分离运动。那么从沙特阿拉伯的社角来看，哦，你阿联酋支持了一个在我们沙特边境的军事行动，与其通过外交途径来解决沙特的不满。
来源片段
The SDC, exactly. The SDC and the Emirates are supporting this SDC. This resulted in what was perceived as the UAE supporting some kind of military action right by Saudi Arabia's border and this forced Saudi Arabia to basically give some ultimatum to the Emirates to pull back their support for the SDC or this one particular military operation. That's the story Saudi Arabia tells. It could have been resolved diplomatically and it just, from the UAE's perspective, the kinetic surprise, the fact that airplanes flew out of Saudi Arabia and bombed a UAE-sponsored convoy was one step too much.
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重要的是，这股势力是一股亲西方亲阿联酋反胡塞反伊朗的民主性质独立运动。更重要的是这个运动获得了野门海湾的控制权。于是阿联酋选择支持这个分离运动。那么从沙特阿拉伯的社角来看，哦，你阿联酋支持了一个在我们沙特边境的军事行动，与其通过外交途径来解决沙特的不满。沙特选择突然袭击阿联酋，对吧？你发现了吗？我在第292期播客里面试图解释过这个事件背后的原因。但是我一直说到现在整整两期播客之后，我觉得我才能够说清楚它的来龙去脉有多么复杂。
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And then I know you've spent a lot of time in India and with various players within India. By your lights, there's an India factor here playing in all of this. So can you walk us through both of those? The UAE has its own kind of self-power and it's called quiet diplomacy or infrastructure diplomacy. And what I mean by that is that instead of shouting, instead of the rhetoric, it's building. It has ports and corridors, sovereign capital. And when it normalized the relations with Israel, it built leverage, right? It didn't treat it as some kind of headline, maybe also. I mean, it's a great headline to have. But we had new aviation routes and tech funds, energy cooperation.
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阿联酋的优势不是人口规模，不是宗教圣地，不是能够动员中东大众情绪。阿联酋的优势是一张精英网络，它有港口，有自由区、有投资、有供应链接点，有航运安全、有金融、回路、有主权、基金、有情报合作。阿联酋把自己想象成是海湾走廊，它要在冲突地区先占几个位点，它要优化物流，它要控制通道，它要维持航运，它要拿到杠杆。因此，在过去一个月，沙特在那拼命骂阿联酋的时候，阿联酋往北跑到印度和俄罗斯进行了外交。
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This was vetoed by Iran and by Russia so far.
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在此之前，这个计划一直都在被伊朗和俄罗斯否决。
来源片段
And UAE seizes that opportunity, seeds the capital, takes first dollar risk, and suddenly Turkmenistan, if everything works well, can export its natural gas, its number four in the world in reserves to Europe instead of to China.
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如果一切顺利，那么土库曼斯坦的天然气就有可能能够出口到欧洲土库曼斯坦天然气处位位列全球全世界第四。
来源片段
And it is also an ambition endorsed by his clerics, because he believes that it is righteous for the Wahhabs and the Sauds to rule the two holiest places in Islam. So he musters a campaign to invade the Hajjahs. So what has happened to the Hussein dynasty, the Sharif of Mecca? Because we last saw them, really with Lawrence of Arabia, with all the children getting sort of kingdoms parceled out in Iraq and Transjordan. What's happened since then? David I mean, they've weakened to the point of, you know, complete evisceration. And they've lost their connections to, you know, the Ottoman Empire is no more.
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因为沙特是伊斯兰教的两大圣臣，麦加和麦迪娜的守护者。麦加和麦迪娜是两座位于沙特阿拉伯境内的城市。所以沙特王室拥有象征性的伊斯兰合法性。这种宗教资本使得沙特阿拉伯在逊尼派伊斯兰教中具有独特的话语权。有关逊尼派和什叶派的区别。我之前已经在介绍伊朗当今的什叶派政权是如何颠覆传统什叶派教义的那期播客里详细介绍过了。因此，综合以上两点，综合国土面积和宗教合法性。
来源片段
it happens here in the sense that there's no Arab tradition of large-scale state management. So I think state management practices are sort of adopted from the conquered, right? But in other regards, something about this Islamic cultural complex is sticky and transforms what it touches rather than the other way around. How does that work? Right. Yeah, I mean, what is absolutely crucial is that these guys come with a religious core, they're very strongly identified with.
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那我去支持一下你从我自己的战略角度来讲，阿联酋一直不太关心国家的政治宗教意识形态，因为它的真正的战略重心一直就放在建立枢纽这个事情上。但是对于沙特阿拉伯来说，它在过去十年跟阿联酋，你农我农最大的原因是这个大的沙特内部政治改革和经济发展的方向是在参照阿联酋。但是这个改革屡屡受败，也就是说它和阿联酋维持的这种表面上的导师和学生的关系，那个原因没有了，