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目标片段另外一方面，从9月到12月，美国又在太平洋和加勒比海对所谓的毒品快艇、贩毒船narco boats实施了多次打击。但是我们要注意的是，在全球贩毒版图里面来看，从委内瑞拉出去的毒品其实最多流向欧洲，而不是美国委内瑞拉在其中更多扮演的是一个中转通道的角色。因为全球的可卡因真正核心产区是哥伦比亚，有些货物会经由委内瑞拉转运，有一些则来自委内瑞拉的西部地区。总之，在这里我要说的一个核心结论是，美国做的这一切不仅仅是为了毒品问题，尤其是当美国开始在那片海域集中部署军事力量的时候，
来源片段to Venezuela is the fentanyl problem. Fentanyl comes across the Mexican border. They have nothing to do with Venezuela. But cocaine comes through Venezuela. Cocaine is grown primarily in this atmosphere in Colombia, and some of it goes from Colombia, north, or east, that is, Atlantic or Caribbean. But a lot of it goes east into Venezuela and is trafficked out of Venezuela into the Caribbean and either goes to the United States or goes
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S1：6 个窗口回退
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he has made this such a priority that we've got pick a number, 10, 15 percent of the Navy in the Caribbean. Well, yeah, I think this is a point you made in your Foreign Affairs piece from a few weeks ago that this is a renaissance for the US Navy's fourth fleet. Maybe renaissance is the wrong word, it's sort of the likes of which it's not seen maybe since the foundations of the fourth fleet. I don't know. We would have to consult the fleet historian. But okay, so this moves us into the present. As you just pointed out, there's a very impressive concentration of American military might in the region, certainly way more than you need to interdict drug boats that we are doing
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美国大概有十来艘航空母舰。而且你知道一艘航母出动的时候，背后带着的不是单舰，而是一整套航母战斗群。那么你一般不会把世界上最大最重要的航母派出去，就为了拦截几艘毒品走私船，所以随着时间的推移，这一点其实在军事上敏锐的观察者看来是越来越明显的。而且特朗普对于这一点表达的非常直白，他和小布什的说法形成了鲜明的对比。小布什当年老是说我们去伊拉克，不是为了石油，是为了自由。
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Already, if you are the owner of a ship carrying sanctioned oil out of Venezuela, or carrying some ingredient, they're very thick crude, so they use diluents to dilute it so that, for example, it can move through pipelines. If you're bringing that to Venezuela, you're not going to do that now. I mean, you're not crazy. You're going to try to wait this out. Oddly enough, and it is ironic, we're getting into a situation where the only oil leaving Venezuela is that of Chevron, which is an exception to the sanctions and which delivers
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周五就上周五那个Exxon的人就一个石油公司的人还在那里说，我们现在也不太确定是否愿意回到委内瑞拉，除非发生更多改革，对吗？但是委内瑞拉在六七十年代，就是处在高峰期的。我们知道随着时间的推移，这种拥有大量自然资源的国家，往往会出现越来越严重的腐败。因为你把产业国有化之后会发生什么呢？那么你把油田从雪佛龙Exxon那个Royal Dutch Shell英国石油等等等等，公司里面接管过来。然后你要把这些资源分配出去OK谁来管理这个油田，谁去管这个矿，谁来管这个炼油厂，就某些情况下，
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prices and the fact that people just can't live their lives pretty much every segment of Iranian society. But for the real regime loyalists at some point or another has been in the streets, yet they're still there and still willing to defend themselves through the use of violence. So that's, you know, it's never something you can really wholly rely on, but that's there. And then there's the opposition. Tell us about the Venezuelan opposition and what role you think they can play in all of this. I think the two questions here, let's address that first. And then a second one, which is what happens if Maduro does go. When I took the job in January 2019 of
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在很多威权政府下，你没有自由，你失去很多东西，但至少政府能够给你提供安全，对吧？你不能公开反对政府，你不能做一些事情，你没有某些权利。但是通常你可以理所当然的认为我可以安全的走在街上，但委内瑞拉的问题在2010年之后变成了他们生活在一个同时满足以下三个事情的地方。你贫困你生活在一个威权政府下面。与此同时，你还不安全。这一切到了马杜罗时代变得更糟。马杜罗延续了查威斯在2002年之后的核心逻辑，就是我必须让我的人掌控一切。
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they're hopeless. Lines that I'd heard about the Nicaraguan opposition in the 1980s, and they were all wrong. They've managed, just think of the pressure they're under. Some have been driven into exile. Those who are in Venezuela are open every day to being murdered or tortured and imprisoned. And that happens all the time. It's still happening. Yet they have really stayed together. Not only have they stayed together, but they won the support of the Venezuelan people. Maduro tried to rig the election last year. It was not at all a fair election, in no way,
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委内瑞拉称，2015年通胀到达180%委内瑞拉宪法投票被暴力和死亡的阴影笼罩。这些标题拼在一起，你就能明白这不是什么偶发事件，这就是这变成了委内瑞拉这个政权维稳逻辑下的暴力现实。然后我们就到了这样一个阶段嘛。就2018年开始，马杜罗不得不偷选举，就开始非常明显的操控选举，通过操控选举来给自己强行续命。对，在这里我还想说，另外一个结果是反对派的政治人物，大量的流亡海外嘛，反对党的政治人物，如果他们能逃出来，
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of Venezuela. But Nicolas Maduro is not the government of Venezuela, in our view. He's a usurper. And Munoz Gonzalez was elected last year. He and Maria Corina Machado say, this fine, all you're doing is preventing theft from the people of Venezuela. Then it isn't an act of war. Then it's an act that the legitimate authorities want. Now, will she go back to Venezuela? None of the people who've left, none of the other political leaders who've gone into exile have done that. It would be cheeky. Could she go in and go back into hiding? Would the regime
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这就是到了2024年大选。我们说的这个拿了诺贝尔和平奖那个马查多这个人物的不可思议之处。马查多马杜罗在法律层面禁止马查多参加竞选参加2024年的竞选。于是马查多这个人在他的阵营里面推出了一个门面候选人。就是我刚才说的那个gonzalez,他在马查多在2024年大选中就是不可思议的，把反对派的支持整合了起来，形成了一个真正能够击败马杜罗的联盟，就是所有的国际观察机构，他的百分比可能不一样。
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Venezuelan security state, the fact that the regime wanted her and she was able to evade that in hiding for all that time also doesn't. Do you mean that she was literally being hunted and hiding out or that she's keeping a low profile and they were nervous about that? What was the actual situation for her? She was in hiding. Some of the other exiles had gone into embassies of other democracies, Latin American and other. She was hiding out in a truly undisclosed location. I don't know what that location was, but she was able to get internet access wherever she was.
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于是美国在半夜发动了一次特种行动进入巴拿马，但那个行动中没有立刻抓住他，他躲到了一个外交设施，躲了一段时间，美国政府对着他就是把他逼出来，把他逼出来，并且把这个外国领导人抓捕归案。抓回到了美国这个人诺列加，现在还在美国监狱里诺列加就是我们能找到的最后一个美国搞掉拉丁美洲领导人的案例。所以把这条线串起来。最后我想说的就是，美国在南美发动过很多次政变，不仅仅是委内瑞拉，这不是偶然事件，曾经是冷战地缘政治逻辑的产物，西半球必须可控清苏倾向，必须消除政治性质、政权性质无所谓，民主也行，独裁也行，只要符合战略利益就行。
S2：3 个窗口回退
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But you take out a leadership, you have to replace it with something. And then you have to think, I mean, there's already reports that Venezuelan ships are escaping the blockade. Oil tankers are suddenly kind of getting through that blockade already by turning off their transmitting signals and things. So this is going to be harder, I think, than Donald Trump, who seems sounds to me when I listened to that whole press conference that he gave on the plane last night, he sounds like he's on the high that presidents get when they successfully use military force. And we'll get into kind of all the other countries that he managed to threaten during that mini press conference. But he's just seeing the short term. And there's a huge long term, this is good.
目标片段
美国大概有十来艘航空母舰。而且你知道一艘航母出动的时候，背后带着的不是单舰，而是一整套航母战斗群。那么你一般不会把世界上最大最重要的航母派出去，就为了拦截几艘毒品走私船，所以随着时间的推移，这一点其实在军事上敏锐的观察者看来是越来越明显的。而且特朗普对于这一点表达的非常直白，他和小布什的说法形成了鲜明的对比。小布什当年老是说我们去伊拉克，不是为了石油，是为了自由。
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Okay, what Venezuela has going for it are world-class oil reserves, arguably the number one oil reserves knowable in the world. They've got an educated diaspora willing to return to the country. Only willing to return if it works out. I'm not hearing Venezuelans jump at going back because I think the reintegration will be harder than people suggest. But anyway. Okay. All right. But I'm giving that as a potential. Okay. Yeah. You have damaged but rebuildable infrastructure, and you have geographic proximity to the US market, and you have an administration now that's likely to lift the economic sanctions and provide economic aid. Okay.
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到了1989年，委内瑞拉不得不推出一套紧缩方案。紧缩方案。对于委内瑞拉的民众是非常难以接受的，因为他们已经习惯了福利国家了。他们已经习惯了这个想法，就我们脚下坐的石油储量，比地球上任何国家都多。那我们就应该有非常便宜的汽油，我们就应该有非常便宜的住房，我们就应该享受这个国家提供的各种福利，对吧？那那个时候确实这个紧缩创造了大量的失败者，也有赢家继续成功。比如说商业精英，比如说那些参与石油行业的企业家。与此同时，还有大量从农村进城的人，他们来到城市，就是为了拿这些补贴依赖福利国家体系，最终政府不得不削减。
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But I'm going to tell you Greenland, no. I'm going to tell you Mexico, a maybe. And I'm going to tell you Cuba, to me. If I had to rank them, I think you're saying Mexico, Cuba. But I'm saying Cuba, Mexico because of the Rubio involvement. I think they're hoping Cuba does itself. But look, I think it is – whether other countries around the world could just dismiss that list and say he's not really going to do it, it is extraordinary that he's in a position of saying this. And the ripple effects to other countries and how they now assess the United States and this presidency for the next three years I think can't be discounted. Okay.
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我之所以提到这点，是因为今天的这个国务卿马克·卢比奥，他也是同时兼任国务卿和国家安全顾问的一个人。那他之前担任过这个双重职位的就是基辛格。基辛格在六七十年代的观点，非常典型，也非常直接，我就可以用一句话来概括。他说只要他们不是共产主义者，我不在乎他们是什么政府，我不在乎他们是不是独裁。那但是智利人会告诉你，被美国推上去的这个皮诺切特皮诺切特他这个独裁对智利人有多么恐怖，多么致命，多么残酷。