最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段霍梅尼回国之后，并没有立刻建立神权体制，而是暂时支持成立以自由派人物为首的临时政府，使得这场革命出现了广泛联合的状态。在这个阶段，很多伊朗人相信伊斯兰革命将会导向宪政导向、民主导向、社会正义真正的夺权发生。在随后数月，霍梅尼集团迅速完成了以下几个关键操作。第一，他建立了革命平行权力结构，其中包括革命委员会、革命法庭，以及后来成立的赫赫有名的伊斯兰革命卫队，用以绕开救国家机器救国家体制。
来源片段It would take five more weeks for the Shah to flee. And then two weeks later, Khomeini returns from exile. And then this regime is established. The Iranian revolution was enormous and broad and included within the coalition people who wanted democracy, who marched under banners talking about popular sovereignty and voting and elections. And at the very beginning, there was every reason to believe that this union was the new Iran. And it could resolve itself into a kind of, you know, parliamentary, multi-faction, multi-vision kind of competitive democratic politics.
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来源片段
The Iranian regime's perspective on how to keep control of its population is very different from, for example, North Korea. In a totalitarian state like North Korea, if you don't support us, the regime, you oppose us. You're automatically assumed to oppose us. So everybody always has to be dancing this special dance of support or the consequences are disastrous. But Iran's dictatorship, even though it is very much a dictatorship that has violently oppressed anyone who rose up against it in the last 46 years, from day one, by the way, killing thousands of potential opposition members and opponents.
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但是如果你是一个住在伊朗的老百姓12天战争对你的体感是什么？是伊斯兰共和国政权被证明它是虚弱的，它连被动防守的能力都没有。这个政权关于自身的叙事，在民众层面已经进一步破产。所以关注伊朗政治的人可以说，哎呀，在我有生之年已经看到很多次，类似于今天的这个大规模民众抗议了这一次的区别在哪？我们等一会也会详细介绍伊朗爆发的在09年和22年爆发的大规模抗议09年，人们走上街头喊的口号，
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The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was part of a much larger set of Muslim restorationist movements or revivalist movements all over the Muslim world, but especially in the Arab world. And they followed the perceived catastrophic failure of nationalism, secular nationalism of Nasser.
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所以接下来让我先为大家梳理一下1979年伊斯兰共和国掌权以来，一直到今天的脉络和发展。伊斯兰共和国的建立，不是一次单纯由宗教信徒自发完成的革命。
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If you saw my video about the theological lineage that produced Hamas, you know that this conversation about Islamic restoration and Islamic revival as the solution to the Arab crisis of modernity, the sense of powerlessness and failure in the face of European power and European imperialist conquest, that was there. It was very much there, very powerfully there. But the initial post-war period was a period of nationalism. And nationalism was what dominated. And nationalism created the elites and created the institutions and created the states and the power bases. The slow receding of nationalism in the face of Islamic revivalism had its version in Shia Iran.
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伊斯兰共和国的建立，不是一次单纯由宗教信徒自发完成的革命。一方面我们可以说，革命前提是在70年代末，巴列维王朝确实已经陷入系统性的危机。巴列维王朝推行的白色革命虽然在伊朗带来了世俗化、现代化和经济增长，但是也实质性的造成贫富分化越来越严重，政治高压、社会失序。与此同时，巴列维王朝对于西方文明的友好引进的西方文化带来了通胀和腐败，并且引起了传统商人。
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What that reality, what that profound mismanagement and autocracy of the Shah ended up doing was unifying all of these different bases. You had liberals, you had nationalists, you had women's rights groups and feminists, you had students who were often radicalized either to the Islamist or to the communist factions.
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这个联盟里并不统一，其中包括自由派宪政主义者，包括女权主义者，包括民族主义者，包括左翼和马克思主义者，也包括了什叶派伊斯兰教教士为核心的宗教主义者。这个松散联盟的政治动员中心，是当时正在流亡的霍梅尼。
S1：3 个窗口回退
来源片段
And at the very beginning, there was every reason to believe that this union was the new Iran. And it could resolve itself into a kind of, you know, parliamentary, multi-faction, multi-vision kind of competitive democratic politics. And then everything started to deteriorate very quickly. Khomeini first allowed the appointment of a liberal national government led by Bazalgan, the head of the liberal nationalist faction in that broad coalition, which Khomeini himself wanted in the revolution. He wanted as broad a coalition that incorporated as many different groups. But then as soon as he's in power, he begins to systematically push them aside and dismantle that grand coalition.
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在随后数月，霍梅尼集团迅速完成了以下几个关键操作。第一，他建立了革命平行权力结构，其中包括革命委员会、革命法庭，以及后来成立的赫赫有名的伊斯兰革命卫队，用以绕开救国家机器救国家体制。第二，他垄断了合法性来源，通过1979年的公投将伊斯兰共和国作为唯一选项提交给全民表决，使得反对者在程序上就被边缘化了。第三，他分阶段的清除了所有的盟友，他先打击了自由派和民族主义者，然后系统性的镇压了马克思主义者。
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And what's interesting to note is that it then basically froze in place. All of those systems exist, all of those functions, all of those, there's only been two supreme leaders, right? Khomeini and then Khamenei since 1989. And so you now have a regime that if we begin to seriously ask the question of its vulnerability to regime change because it'll maybe be weakened or humiliated in a war with Israel, we have to look at that larger story of those many different camps in Iranian society. Commercial elites and political elites and professional elites and students and the poor and the merchants of the bazaar, all terribly, terribly hurt by the sanctions regime, by the fact that this religious revolutionary regime has done nothing with Iran's resources, with its people's resources, but war and has not built out what should be an incredibly wealthy, incredibly competent,
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他在1989年霍梅尼去世之后，伊斯兰共和国很快意识到两件事情。第一，他们需要重建这个被伊朗伊拉克战争打得千疮百孔的国家。第二，他需要恢复和西方的关系。于是在90年代，我们看到了一系列看似是改革派的总统陆续上台。比如说97年的哈塔米，他以一种微笑的阿雅图拉的形象出现，阿雅图拉就是什叶派穆斯林宗教领袖的意思，西方国家是很好骗的，真的很天真，尤其是在西方国家掌握了文化话语权的开放知识经营。
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And the people who had the advantage because of the organization, because of the language, because of the vocabulary, because they could appeal to religion. One of the most important things to know is that thousands of street protests accompany the 2022 protests for Mahsa Amini, the young woman arrested by the Modesty police back in 2022. And the regime was forced to stay in order to survive, in order to suppress the protest, arrested tens of thousands of people and killed hundreds of them. The best polling we have tells us that somewhere between 10 and 15 percent of the population supports the regime at this point.
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这件事情在2022年9月引发了女性生命自由运动。我相信关注政治的很多人应该或多或少的记得这个运动。阿米尼这个库尔德女孩之死，引爆了席卷伊朗全国的抗议浪潮。最初她是一个库尔德女性解放运动，随后成为了全国性的政治运动。这个抗议很快从问责道德警察升级到了对于一整个伊斯兰共和国合法性的挑战和以往的抗议。不同的是，2022年的运动呈现出几个鲜明的特征。首先，女人站在运动最前线，大量的伊朗女人在公共场合摘下，并且焚烧头巾，直接挑战了伊斯兰共和国对于女性身体和日常生活的控制。