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目标片段我说的是那些受过大学教育的集中，在大城市的知识精英全都在无脑站队。民主党一旦讨论美国时政，看似是在给大家介绍美国时政的趋势，实际上是在卯足了劲的想要启蒙大众特朗普有多么危险，所以我们一定要支持民主党，我认为这是一种脱离现实的群体自害。作为一个私人个体，你可以有自己的政治立场，知识精英的立场肯定要在总体上比大众来的更加进步。但是知识分子的职责首先是要抛开自己的立场来分析现实，究竟发生了什么？
来源片段I'm trying to make sense of this crazy political moment, this crack up we're living through, and I figured there's no better person whose brain to pick than yours, so I appreciate you're doing it for a number of reasons, not the least of which is you have encyclopedic knowledge, both as a student of political history, but as a practitioner of politics, but also because you're ground zero of some of the crack up, which is California, which I do want to. Crazy times demand a crazy politics. That's right. So I want to talk about what's happening in California and what we're learning from it
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S1：5 个窗口回退
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to be analytical in terms of first midterm of a presidency for the party in power is going to be under pressure. Obviously macro environments, inflation, et cetera. Can you just walk us through, why does it seem that everything that could be going wrong for the Democrats, and it's not to say that everything's going well for the Republicans, let's just start with the Democrats. Everything that could be going wrong seems to be going wrong. And what are the what are those things? Yeah, the Republicans are doing well by not doing anything, just not being the Democrats,
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选民要看到问题被快快的解决了才会给你投票。相比之下，如果你不怎么做，你可以把执行失败归咎到官僚体系，归咎到行政部门，归咎到总统个人身上。这这种嗯纠责不是来的安全的多吗？因为行政部门的扩张国会退居到了象征性监督和政治表态的地位。美国国会在特朗普从政第一年，基本上我们听到的都是一些社交媒体上的政治表态。社交媒体时代，这种趋势只可能被进一步放大。
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So let's just start with that. I won't be Trump. I'll end the pain. Right. So there won't be the same level of what many people thought was just pure crazy in our politics. I won't be Trump. I'll be boring. I'll be dull. And I've been around Washington for a long time. So I'll make Washington work again. And it was like he was handed a gift to demonstrate that this is the guy that can make Washington work again because he got this bipartisan infrastructure bill. He got Republicans who normally wouldn't vote for anything led or supported by a Democratic president. And there they are. And it was like, almost like he was, he was annoyed that that was supposed to be
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当一个你喜欢的总统说，哎呀，我不管法律怎么说，我必须要这么做。然后你在那拍手叫好的时候，一个成熟的人应该要意识到未来也会出现一个你讨厌的总统说一模一样的话，然后绕过法律，按照他的道德偏好，或者说他支持者的道德偏好，无视法律去做一些事情。所以我要做出的第二个大趋势的观察，是美国法治的衰退。在这点上，特朗普是症状，不是根本原因。在当今美国时，政历史上真正开启行政统治的总统，可以说是奥巴马的那句名言，I will use my pen and phoneto take on congress.
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They wanted him to replace Trump, but it's not clear. They wanted some kind of progressive movement agenda to take over. Absolutely. Absolutely. Look at how the house did on Biden's ballot. It's pretty rare in American history where the president's party dramatically underperforms the president, a new president's election in a presidential election. There was actually some breaks on the house because voters were worried about the progressives. And, you know, the, the Biden folks who are smart folks, I know and like Ron. I think he's a smart guy, but I don't understand going into that environment. Where it's narrow or they didn't do so well in the house, where an ideological
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他说我有一支笔，我有一部电话，如果国会不愿意在移民问题上按照我想要的方式行动，那我就会使用我的行政权来动员美国公众这句话是当今美国总统行政统治的元年。所以我们看到的是总统越来越多的绕过法律，通过行政命令来治理，美国拜登进一步加强了这个做法。而特朗普又把这个程度推得更高。毫无疑问，在特朗普执政期间，行政统治得到了又一次的升级。但是这个统治不是特朗普发明的。这个统治是奥巴马发明的，让我在这里对这个现象做一个我自己的评价，有很多美国政治的观察者会认为，
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You look at any congressional district and you can look at the generic ballot, the polling Democrat versus Republican, and you look at the president's approval rating. And if the generic ballot face favorites of the Republican and any congressional district and the presidential approval rating is as low as Joe Biden's, it's likely that could be your determinant about whether or not a Republican is going to win that seat. Right. Yeah. And we've declared a bipartisan war on swing seats. There's not as much room to move in the Congress now. Cause all incumbents love the idea of a safe seat. So now primaries rule the world in some ways more than the general election. But yeah, all the indicators say, and this has historically been true of first term
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然而现在美国国会的事实就是不再有人真正有兴趣通过组建联盟来形成多数在美国国会里，多数这个事情已经变得毫无意义。只要你不是议长，你就几乎没有权力，你没有办法通过组建联盟来进行政策讨论，来推动立法过程，取而代之的是什么？取而代之的是个人激励机制，个人激励机制，取代了集体激励机制。我们看到的是，现在的政治竞选不再是通过政党，而是围绕着人格和个人形象展开。我在这里讨论的仍然是跨越民主党和共和党的。
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party in power has been punished. So we don't oscillate anymore. We just get out the hammer and smash. Who's ever in front of us. We're now the Hulk smash electorate. So Republicans gets clobbered in 2018 in the midterms and then Trump rather than bounce back loses the midterms. I mean, loses the president. Because Biden gets clobbered too. He gets the primary or he more likely resigns and there's a fresh young Democrat versus insane Trump. Another scenario. And this is one I actually, you know, who knows the future is very uncertain, but there are early signs, I think that Trump in the last year by his own crazy
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我们讨论了行政权的继续集中，法治的继续被削弱，政党失去约束力，长期政策和可继承的政治遗产正在快速消失。这不是特朗普一个人的问题。特朗普是一个放大器，他不是起点特朗普让已经存在的问题变得更加直观、更加赤裸，你可以讨厌他，但是你不能假装美国制度本身运作良好，只是选民选错了人而已。我们只要把特朗普换下去，美国政府就会回归所谓的正常。这个正常在我看来已经消失了，已经不可逆的消失了。
S2：3 个窗口回退
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I don't think it's fully formed in the seventies, which is what makes his presidential run premature. But I think he is going to grow into it. And he becomes a very significant voice counseling against all those other Democrats who want to pull the Democratic party to the right. He becomes a very important and steadfast advocate of what we might call a social Democratic strain in Democratic party politics. What makes that interesting is that the Kennedy family itself did not embody that social Democratic strain. And so he comes to a place where he inhabits something distinct from his brothers.
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你可以说时至今日，它至少已经成为了中文播客界一个不可忽视的声音。事实就是我开始讨论2024年美国大选的契机，使我觉得中文知识分子太弹川色变了。我说的是那些受过大学教育的集中，在大城市的知识精英全都在无脑站队。民主党一旦讨论美国时政，看似是在给大家介绍美国时政的趋势，实际上是在卯足了劲的想要启蒙大众特朗普有多么危险，所以我们一定要支持民主党，我认为这是一种脱离现实的群体自害。
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instance. This is only really happening now with this Supreme Court. I mean, it's a generation plus effort. Yes, I was having a discussion with someone whose name I can't remember right now, trying to give a name to this court, the current court in the United States. And he said, it's no longer the Roberts court, the Chief Justice of the United States, because he doesn't control it. And I think the recent decisions have given a lie to the originalist philosophy that's closely associated with Antonine Scalia. And this person said to me,
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但是他确实标志着行政权的高度，个人化，在国会持续的不作为背景下，总统不再只是三权之一的执行者，总统成为了实际上的美国政府中枢。我认为，美国政府由协商型共和制转向行政主导型的治理模式的转变，至今是难以逆转的。所以美国的行政权能否得到约束？我觉得在这个问题上，我们目前能够做出的唯一回答是最高法院。也就是说，司法权仍然能够对此进行一定的约束有关，这点我已经更加详细的在第199期播客，
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because he was denied a seat. But that his philosophy now guides this Supreme Court majority. And it may be that we are seeing a Reaganite jurisprudence being enacted in the 2020s, more than 30 years after the Reagan presidency came to an end. In one of the many ironies of history to go back to what we were saying earlier, it's being enacted in the face of Joe Biden's agenda and what his administration would like to do, which has echoes of a much, much earlier politics. You can see history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
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我知道我需要解释我说的后半句话，他会让总统的权力变得越来越无关紧要，越来越缺乏政治遗产。因为这意味着你要是通过行政命令来执政，这意味着没有任何一条行政命令能够在权力层面撑得过你的任期，你的下一任可以一上任就撤销你的所有行政命令。而你的下一任是无法撤销法律的。特朗普在他的任期第一年做出的这些看似滔天骇浪的改变是撑不过2028年1月20号的，