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目标片段他在他的昨天的播客里说，2023年10月7日，以色列人发现自己彻底误判了对面的敌人。这是一种旧式型的伊斯兰主义意识形态。无论是逊尼派还是什叶派，在六七战线上与以色列对峙。我们原以为可以用常规手段对这种敌人形成威慑。但是，我们用惨痛的代价学到这并不可能以色列人得出的结论是，对哈马斯成立的判断，同样适用于真主党胡塞武装、叙利亚和伊拉克境内的伊朗代言人乃至伊朗政权本身。
来源片段There's a line, Tom Friedman recently expressed it in the Page of the New York Times, that the Israeli government is making Jews all over the world unsafe, that the opprobrium directed at Israel for its war in Gaza, at Israel for whatever you want to say, for those who wrongly say is rogue state attack on Iran, that the Jews here who are not in Israel will pay the price. That's almost kind of reversing the logic of Zionism itself. That a safe haven for the Jews is not the safety of the diaspora is actually too will harm it. But the other thing I would notice is the uptick in anti-Semitism came not after Israel responded to October 7th, but after the worst attack since the Holocaust. And so it seems like there's a kind of weird, almost a Kabuki theater thing going on.
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来源片段
And so Iran is now sitting on a huge stockpile of uranium enriched sufficiently to actually produce multiple bombs. And what the Mossad believes and what the Prime Minister said that Israel believes is that it was rushing ahead into building those bombs. Why would it rush ahead now? Because in the last year, Israel showed everybody, the region, that Iran is actually incredibly weak. Its entire air defense system had been wiped out. 120 Israeli planes in November were flying freely over Iranian airspace with nothing able to stop them. They destroyed most of the missile factories of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Everybody now knows the Iranian regime is fragile, is incompetent. And that means that everybody now understands that Iran has to actually get a nuke to survive as a regime.
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截止此时此刻，6月14日，在过去48个小时不到的时间内发生的情况如下，以色列对伊朗发起攻击。核心原因是以色列认为，伊朗正在快速接近制造核武器的临界点，可能只剩数月时间。同时，以色列认为自己正好拥有一个难得的打击窗口。去年，以色列曾在对伊朗的空袭中破坏了伊朗防空系统，同时也在黎巴嫩重创伊朗代理人组织真主党一名以色列高层军官更指出，有情报显示，伊朗以积累足够多的材料，在数日内制造15枚核弹。
来源片段
If it can build a secret factory to build drones on Iranian soil and then launch those drones at the moment of when you pull that trigger, and that took years and those drones then hit massive missile silos on Iranian soil, that's what happened last night. You can't do that without massive deep penetration of Iranian intelligence and massive support on the ground. And so so many Iranians want this regime to end. I don't think they know Israel like Israel care, but Israel love Israel hate it. I don't think they're in any way emotionally invested in Israel. They want this regime to end. So it is absolutely a possibility and it would mean we don't have this thing happening every five years because this regime will never give up on its redemptionist fantasies and conquest fantasies and the demolition of other nations around it and all these things that it has engaged in.
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以色列还摧毁了大布里市的一座炼油厂。伊朗此时此刻发射了数百架无人机攻击。以色列目前以色列正在拦截状态。长期以来，西方的普遍看法是，以色列没有办法单凭一己之地成功打击伊朗防护严密的核项目。如果没有美国的支持，以色列也不会贸然出手，这是共识。但是昨天看来，以色列仕途正在做的就是这件事情，接下来会发生什么。以色列表示，这些打击将持续至伊朗的核威胁被完全消除为止，可能会持续数天。
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Israel cannot strike Iran without America knowing about it. So, SENTCOM can see Israeli planes even when Iran can't see the Israeli planes.
目标片段
以色列的防御。以色列若要成功防御，不仅仅需要美国的设备，还需要SENTCOM部署在约旦在沙特等地的导弹防御网与拦截器，
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So, you think that there is something to that? I don't think it's a three-month-long conspiracy. We're Trump pretended to come closer to Tucker. I think it's a two-week plan where they're heading into the sixth round of talks, which was supposed to begin today. Iran is officially pulled out, by the way, in the last hour. They're headed into the sixth round of talks in Muscat in Oman. Steve Witkoff was headed there. Trump 61 days ago said, you have 60 days to lock this down, or I'm letting the Israelis go on day 61, which happens to be Friday the 13th, which I just think for the Trump administration might have been cute and symbolic.
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6月11日，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯阿良奇在社交媒体上表示，自己与特朗普的中东特使Steve Wyckoff的会议将继续进行。当时他还不知道自己的国家在两天之内就要受到重创了。他说，我们周日重启谈判，一项保障伊朗核计划和和平的协议近在眼前。当时这个外交部长认为，只要谈判在阿曼继续进行，以色列就不敢贸然破局，因为被这样会被视为破坏特朗普战略计划，伊朗的判断在每一点上都成立，他们看到了特朗普和以色列的裂痕和内藤雅胡的裂痕。
来源片段
Trump 61 days ago said, you have 60 days to lock this down, or I'm letting the Israelis go on day 61, which happens to be Friday the 13th, which I just think for the Trump administration might have been cute and symbolic. I don't know.
目标片段
伊朗本该听我的，我当时给了他们60天警告，不知道你知不知道。而今天正好是第61天。
S1：2 个窗口回退
来源片段
What the Israelis need is much larger ordinance to tackle some of the much more protected sites that have not been tackled as far as we can tell in this first round. And so, there's a possibility that there's still an escalation ahead of us in which the United States participates because it'd be an awful shame to take, to absorb all the costs of this strike without actually achieving the goal. And America could make that goal happen much more easily, I think, than Israel, even assuming Israel has the ability to actually take out the most defended sites. And then I want to ask now about. . . And just one last point. I'm sorry. The total decapitation of the Iranian military. . . Yeah, that's right.
目标片段
他们的报复目标可能不仅仅是以色列，也可能波及美国在内的美国在该地区的资产。不过问题是，如果美国出现人员伤亡，这将促使特朗普正式加入支持以色列的行列彻底终结。伊朗的和计划无疑，此时此刻，特朗普本人更倾向于留在局外，最多为以色列提供物资情报和导弹防御支持，这是多数America First美国优先派的共识立场，绝大多数共和党员政客都持有这种立场。
来源片段
Now, I want to get to a question from Gabriel, which is a sort of American political one, but it's an important one. He said, how important has Trump been in making it possible for the Israelis to confront Iran properly? And do you think this would have happened under President Kamala Harris? Trump has been extremely important. I think Netanyahu thinks that this could not have happened, at least not as successfully under President Harris. A President Harris would have agreed to allow it to go forward. It would have looked to them very irresponsible and potentially bringing about a World War III and being a dangerous escalation and all the kinds of stuff that we've seen Ben Rhodes tweet over the last few hours, which people should look up.
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一直到昨天以来，特朗普对他们来说，作为美国总统，他们都是最坚定的川粉。然而，在这个事件上，特朗普的判断和这群民粹之间产生了一些分歧。我觉得核心问题是，对于特朗普来说，他要做出的一个判断是中东不稳定根源究竟在哪？中东的不稳定根源究竟是以色列还是伊朗？以色列在周四对伊朗发起的这场袭击跟宣传民主无关，跟推翻伊朗政权无关。他的目标非常明确，他的任务高度凝聚，这就是一个现实主义政治的典范。