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目标片段梅尔兹在演讲中明确表示，我衷心恳求所有德国公司限制你们承担的风险，避免因为立即冲销而危及自身企业，
来源片段Friedrich Merz was very explicit about that in the discussion around his speech, saying, My heartfelt request to all companies is limit the risk you take to avoid endangering your own company if it triggers an immediate write-off.
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His name is Friedrich Merz from the Conservative CDU party, and he's the frontrunner to be Germany's next leader. There is a lot at stake.
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我们讨论有望成为下一届德国总理的Friedrich Metz梅尔兹是一个怎样的人？他所领导的强大的德国保守党联盟代表怎样的政策？
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Now, first of all, we're going to talk about Friedrich Merz, what kind of a person he is, his long running feud with Angela Merkel, and find out about his powerful Conservative party.
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梅尔兹和Angela Merkel默克尔之间长期的个人恩怨，以及梅尔兹如何扭转当今糟糕的德国经济，最终我们也会讨论他的对华政策，我们还会展望即将到来的选举中可能出现的政府组合。
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Let's take a listen.
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我们听听看他说什么。
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We are leading the opinion polls far ahead of all the others.
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他说，我们在民调中遥遥领先于其他所有党派。
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And we are convinced that we will win and that we will then form a new government in Germany.
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我们深信保守联盟将会获胜，并且在德国组建一个全新政府，这对于我们国家来说至关重要。
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And this is extremely necessary for our country to have a new government and new economic policy and so on.
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我们需要一个新政府和新的经济政策。
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So you are seeing me very, very happy and very, very optimistic.
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所以你现在看到的我梅尔兹非常高兴，同时也充满了信心。
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He has committed what, for some traditional Germans, think is a cardinal sin, and worked in the private sector for the asset company BlackRock and sort of a big global company, which in the sort of millennial feeling of Germany's center left is regarded as beyond the pale. And in some ways, this is the circumstances and the circumstances of Trump, and we will come to all of that, are moving in his direction.
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因为梅尔兹曾经给这个全球资产管理公司BlackRock工作过。在左翼眼中，他就是资本阶级沆瀣一气的傀儡，对吧？
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If he doesn't do that, he should be a shoo-in for Chancellor. Yeah, so maybe a kind of biggest risk to him ahead is potentially overconfidence.
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梅尔兹目前对她来说，最大的风险就是她过度自信，有可能会说错话发表一些失误言论，这也是她的顾问团队目前在严密监控的。如果梅尔兹能够避免犯错，她几乎现在可以锁定下一个德国总理的席位。
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And he wants to prove quite clearly that he was right all along in his take on Germany and particularly where the Conservative CDU-CSU should be. To his sentiment, and there actually is a significant block within the Conservative CDU party, Angela Merkel took the party way too far into the centre ground, leaning towards the left.
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默克尔带着德国保守联盟走上了一条错误的路线。大家不要忘了安格拉莫克尔的政党也是CDU对吧？
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Well, you call it Conservative, Richard, but it's Mertz's contention that it has been anything but that for the last 15 years. And his rivalry, to give him his due, his rivalry with Merkel is a mixture of several things.
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Krislische Demokratische Union Deutschland所以说梅尔兹和默克尔当年的这场恩怨是党内的权力之争。梅尔兹对于默克尔的批评，就是在过去15年内，这个保守联盟CDU CFU联盟被默克尔变得不再保守。
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Well, he takes the view, and it's a perfectly legitimate view, that if you want a Conservative party, you should have a Conservative party. And that Angela Merkel's party was not remotely Conservative.
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因此，梅尔兹一直对默克尔表示愤怒，在他心中，这是一个原则问题。一个保守党应该有着保守政策，而默克尔领导下的保守联盟变得不再保守。
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And that Angela Merkel's party was not remotely Conservative. In some ways, it's the flip side of what happened in the UK under Tony Blair and Labour.
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梅尔兹对于默克尔的愤怒和英国的托尼布莱尔领导的英国工党非常相似，工党内部人员对于布莱尔的批评，就是如果你想做一个工党领袖，你必须要保证工党是社会主义的政党。但是布莱尔领导的工党过于保守，不符合工党的精髓和内核。
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But everything, I mean, if you just look at the last few days in the German media, broadcast media, social media, newspaper, print media, you might be forgiven for getting there's a German election going on, because the entire coverage from top to bottom has been Donald Trump. And Donald Trump is the absolute key figure in this German election and will dominate the next German government. Yeah.
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这不是我自己在美国把美国当做世界中心的偏见，把美国作为一切政治的参照物，这就是今天欧洲的现状。我在阅读欧洲政治新闻的时候，不管是德语法语内部的新闻，看我经常会感慨，怎么你们自己明明在搞大选，还在喋喋不休的国内媒体，还在讨论特朗普这些欧洲国家的内部新闻，经常会让我惊叹于他们。
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And as long as they are divided, nobody will take us serious.
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只要我们分裂，没有人会把我们当回事。
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European unity is absolutely vital.
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因此欧洲的团结至关重要，欧洲想要在世界产生影响力，必须要采取一致行动。
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It's a sort of message to Trump that's saying you respect power and Europe needs to be a power and not just a pleader and not just a laggard, both of which it has been for a lot of time. You look at the two current leaders of Europe or self-styled leaders of Europe, President Macron and Olaf Scholz.
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这个民主共识已经被瓦解的情况下，梅尔兹的这句话代表的也是OK特朗普尊重强权。那么欧洲需要成为一个强权，而不是一个舔着脸问美国要饭，祈求庇护的小老弟，也不是一个屁事不干的旁观者。
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You look at the two current leaders of Europe or self-styled leaders of Europe, President Macron and Olaf Scholz.
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我们去看看欧洲目前的两位领导人，法国的马克龙和德国当前总理Olaf Scholz舒尔兹虽然说马克龙强调自己有个人魅力，
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So, John, give us a quick take. You wanted to talk about Friedrich Merz's approach to the economy and particularly this phenomenon in Germany called the debt break. This kind of shibboleth in German politics that prevents governments from borrowing a lot of money for investment. John, give us a readout on that. Yeah, well, I mean, everybody is talking about Germany's infrastructure crisis and Germans have a risk of generalizing. Germans have even in good times, Germans have a great propensity to say that everything is terrible in their own country.
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没有，而且舒尔兹的外交形象也相较疲软。目前欧洲没有领导人可以代表欧洲。接下来我还要想讨论的是梅尔兹代表的经济政策，他的经济立场、经济立场。我们要讨论两个重大的问题，所有德国人都会知道有多么重要的问题。一个是德国的债务问题。另外一个是德国的公共设施危机基础建设危机Infrastructure crisis.我的听众朋友中肯定会有绝大多数人不住在德国，没有去过德国，不了解，真正住在德国的人一定会有的一个感受，
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But anybody who travels on trains or deals with any other kind of German infrastructure at the moment that is absurdly analog, as well as anything else, you still get letters in the post from public authorities. The kind of thing that was dispensed with you sometimes think you're living in the 19th century when it comes to dealing with German officialdom.
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任何一个在德国称作过火车的人，或者是使用过德国基础建设的人，都知道德国有多么落后，抱怨完了火车让我来抱怨另外一个德国的德国生活的重要拖后腿的事情，那就是他的政府体系非常落后，好像还生活在19世纪，所有在德国需要提交政府文件的人都知道，
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And so there's very much an expectation or a hope, depending on the kind of coalition he agrees, that he would change the, he would seek to change the Constitution to introduce an amendment, do this. As I say, that wouldn't just be for public spending across the board, but it would be for areas that would be deemed to be critical. But he wouldn't have a majority for it. And that's the whole pitch that we're hearing from the still remaining parties of the government coalition, that ahead of these elections, together with the conservative, with Friedrich Merz's bloc, they would still be able to fix this and reform the debt break. Friedrich Merz himself is not willing to do this before the elections.
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现代化政府官僚机构就被这个宪法政策给困住了，说你不能借钱，不能增加公共债务。为了废除这一政策需要三分之二、二分之三是怎么说的？三分之二的会议多数投票，梅尔兹代表的保守派阵营，一直不愿意放宽财政政策。但是我们在这个梅尔兹政权内未来可能会看到他接受一定程度的改革。目前有两种可能的改革方案。第一种是全面修改德国宪法，允许政府在国防以及基础设施改善上。
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So we can expect the CDU to want to keep up support to Ukraine. Friedrich Merz has even dangled the possibility of providing Ukraine with cruise missiles, which has been a long debate within Germany in recent months.
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梅尔兹就提出了向乌克兰提供巡航导弹的可能性。这是最近几个月在德国内部激烈讨论的话题。
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Olaf Scholz very much emphasizes that Germany needs to cut its dependence on particular raw materials coming from China, rare earths, things like that, that are important for the tech center.
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他强调，梅尔兹强调，德国需要减少对中国原材料的依赖，比如说稀土等重要高科技资源以及对华投资的风险。
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An immediate write-off, what he's thinking there is presumably, what happens if China invades Taiwan and suddenly the West wants to slap the same kind of sanctions on China as it did on Russia?
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立即冲销的意思就是如果台湾爆发战争，那么西方有可能会像制裁俄罗斯一样，对中国实施类似的经济制裁。
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And this is a very geostrategic view, but again, focusing in on the very business fallout and clearly also a signal that, particularly to the car industry as well, that whenever there's a crisis, there will not just be another summit at the chancellery and those handouts that they got accustomed to during Macal times. Yeah.
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它的明确信号就是给汽车，尤其是汽车行业的明确信号，就是危机出现的时候，我可不会像默克尔这样召开晋级峰会，