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目标片段他有没有展示出强有力的领导力？
来源片段Does he show strong leadership?
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来源片段
OK, it's Berlin Briefing time and today we're going to get you fully briefed on Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor who is now fighting for his political survival. And he really does have a fight on his hands. He's rated as the most unpopular German leader since reunification, more than 30 years ago. So I'm here with DW's Michaela Kufner and Nina Haase, and both of them have covered Scholz throughout his time as chancellor. So it is great to have you both here. We'll start by finding out about Scholz's very distinct personality and why his Social Democratic Party is far more influential than many people realise.
目标片段
OK上面是我对2025年德国大选的预测。但是今天这期播客的主题临时被我改小了，我们只讨论当今德国政府出现了什么危机？当今执政党为什么变得如此不受欢迎？2021年成为德国总理的Olaf Scholz是一个怎样的人？他的政治风格是什么？以及为什么他在民调中成为了德国统一冷战结束以来，过去30年最不受欢迎的领导人Olaf Scholz早年是社民党青年组织的领导人，
来源片段
So Scholz, when he came into power, was a bit like a Merkel 2. 0, right?
目标片段
他有点像安格拉·Merkel的2.0版本Scholz曾经在默克尔，你知道当了16年的德国总理，对吧？
来源片段
And they, I mean, they go back to the 19th century, right? And they started off as this workers' movement, essentially, at a time of industrialization, when there were no child labor rules.
目标片段
社民党是德国历史最悠久的政党，它起源于19世纪工人运动，当时同工盛行劳动者缺乏基本保障，工人工作时间过长007 996什么的？
来源片段
And then this workers' movement got founded. And that then transformed into the Social Democratic Party.
目标片段
工人工作时间过长007 996什么的？社民党成立于这样的时代背景，并且逐步发展为一个推动社会变革的政党。
来源片段
But then they were the only party that voted against Hitler's enabling act in parliament.
目标片段
他们是唯一一个在纳粹时期在德国国会投票反对希特勒法案的政党。
来源片段
The Social Democrats have been in coalition in Germany on a federal level, on a national level, for 23 out of the last 27 years.
目标片段
所以说，社民党在过去27年里，有23年都在德国联合政府中执政，他们是德国政府的常驻政党，
来源片段
Frankly, I would, Germany has a social market economy.
目标片段
这一点我在这里还要想插一个嘴，那就是德国实行的是社会市场经济，德国社会支出非常庞大，占了德国政府预算的一半以上。
S1：2 个窗口回退
来源片段
And, you know, a 10-point loss is something that he would just not survive. And it's actually worse than the European trend of the decline of the Big Ten parties. I mean, Germany is very late to that development. Yeah. Okay, so that brings us on to the second part, yeah? Let's look at these crises that have kind of defined the era of Olaf Scholz and have also been dragging down his personal popularity plus also the popularity of his party. So we've got another soundbite to get us started in this one. And this is probably the biggest moment of Scholz's chancellorship.
目标片段
如果在2月底大选中，朔尔兹支持率下降了10个百分点，他将无法保住自己的政治生涯。所以说这也是为什么这期播客我们要讨论当今德国执政党、社民党和朔尔兹，他们是怎么变得如此不受欢迎的对吧？接下来我们要问的这个问题，就是朔尔兹执政的时代，究竟发生了怎样的危机，导致他个人支持率和社民党整体支持率大幅下滑，让我们把时间线拉回三年前2022年2月，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的几天，我们接下来会花很多时间解释的一个关键词，就是ZEITENFENDER时代转折时代扭转。
来源片段
This was in February 2022, just a couple of days after the Russians invaded Ukraine. This was a soundbite from an address that he made to the parliament here in Berlin. Let's listen. We experience a time change. And that means that the world after the world is not the same as the world before. That's the word we just heard from Michaela there, time change. He said, we are experiencing a time change, which means a kind of a turning point in history.
目标片段
让我们把时间线拉回三年前2022年2月，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的几天，我们接下来会花很多时间解释的一个关键词，就是ZEITENFENDER时代转折时代扭转。当时舒尔兹在柏林联邦议会的演讲中说到我们正在经历一个时代转折一个ZEITENFENDER.也就是说，在这个转折点之后，一切都会变得不同。在这里，我们必须要考虑德国在俄乌战争中的地位，实际上一直到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前几天，舒尔兹仍然认为他可以通过外交途径扭转时局，
来源片段
I just want to contextualize it because he really, until a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine, he really thought he could still turn this around through diplomatic means. So prevent, stop the war.
目标片段
在这里，我们必须要考虑德国在俄乌战争中的地位，实际上一直到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前几天，舒尔兹仍然认为他可以通过外交途径扭转时局，他认为他可以阻止战争，并且真的相信了，对吧？
来源片段
He thought he might be able to stop the war. He went to Kiev.
目标片段
他认为他可以阻止战争，并且真的相信了，对吧？他跑去了乌克兰的基普，跑去了莫斯哥和普京搞了那个著名的长桌会议。
来源片段
But to be fair, he wasn't the only one at the time, right? Here in Germany, hardly anyone believed that until the Wednesday night before the Thursday when Vladimir Putin actually invaded. True.
目标片段
俄罗斯即将入侵，我们有确凿情报，但是舒尔兹不相信普京真的会这样做。他不相信普京会突破国际协议和共识，发动这场历史性战争，而且实际上一直到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的前一天周三晚上，
来源片段
Russia invaded Ukraine. And the Sunday after Olaf Scholz held his speech in Parliament, he calls Parliament together and he single-handedly decides 100 billion extra for the German military, which is just completely off the scale here in Germany.
目标片段
当时慕尼黑安全会议刚刚结束，俄罗斯随即入侵乌克兰在入侵后的那个星期天，舒尔兹发表讲话，单方面决定增加1000亿欧元的军费预算。
来源片段
This is quite a remarkable turnaround for a Social Democrat whose party still believes in future cooperation with Russia. That's right. So this was part of the tradition of the Social Democrats, yeah, that they thought that Germany needs to be a kind of a bridge to Russia, that it has a historical responsibility.
目标片段
这个决定对于社民党和舒尔兹本人的政治生涯有着巨大的历史意义，这是一次政治转向政策转向。因为社民党长期以来一直主张要和俄罗斯保持合作关系，这是他们这个左派政党的传统。
来源片段
So the elements of this thing, the Zeitung vendor, the turning point, so that was partly investment in the military, saying that so certainly German investment in the military has absolutely sort of shrunk to virtually barely over 1% of GDP over the years.
目标片段
德国长期以来军事投资非常非常低，只有GDP的一点几就是1%出头时代转折，意味着德国开始向军队注入资金，
来源片段
He has a very strong figure in his own party in the German parliament, Wolf Mützenich, who is somebody very much rooted in this old SPD tradition of trying to somehow find a way of dealing with Russia, if not building close ties with Russia. So Wolf Mützenich had to come on board, essentially.
目标片段
当时去说服游说社民党内的关键人物，那些亲俄的关键人物，比如说社民党内的重量级人物Hof-MutzenichM-U-T-Z-E-N-I-C-H这个人在社民党内根基深厚，他始终主张着德国应该用某种方式与俄罗斯打交道，建立紧密联系。
来源片段
This was a time when it still was considered possible or even likely that the Ukrainian government would fall, that Russia would barge through and take the whole of Ukraine.
目标片段
那就是当时德国政府认为乌克兰可能很快会沦陷，俄罗斯的边境将不再是乌克兰。
来源片段
Talk to me about that. Are the Americans right to perceive that this turning point has turned out to be less impactful than Schultz claimed at the time? Well, let's put it this way. A hundred billion. I mean, when you ask Olaf Schultz about it now, three years later, he will argue that this was a huge turning point, a hundred billion extra. And that in itself, in Germany, in the internal German debate, is a Zeitung vendor. And there's still an awe of this turnaround in policy in terms of beefing up the German military again.
目标片段
因此，德国必须要在国防上开始采取重大行动2022年的时候，欧洲一度认为德国将会在援助乌克兰方面发挥领导作用。我们可以说，从政治角度来说，舒尔兹并没有真正承担这一角色。尽管他在军事上提供了很大的贡献。我在美国认识很多政治观察人士都会说，这是舒尔兹在吹牛，他所谓的时代转折也没有是一个真正的转折了。主要是乌克兰自己能扛，对吧？不管怎么样，舒尔兹兼称1000亿欧元的额外军费开支，这是一个德国的国内政治转折，一个时代转折。
来源片段
And then the weapon system has such a range that it could potentially reach the outskirts of Moscow. And that is something, a German weapon hitting a target somewhere out of Moscow, even though the Ukrainians are saying we wouldn't do that.
目标片段
那么当一个德国制造的导弹击中莫斯科之后，这会对德国来说意味着什么呢？所以他坚称德国不会向乌克兰提供远程巡航导弹。
来源片段
They decided to also stop German dependency on Russian gas, essentially proving Donald Trump, right? Who had said, what are you doing?
目标片段
我们可以说德国的这个能量转型的决定间接承认了特朗普当初的批评是正确的，但问题在于德国选择脱离他们。对于俄罗斯廉价天然气依赖的时候，并没有考虑到如果战争持续很久，他们要怎么办？
来源片段
They were hoping for the Americans to take a lead so that they could somehow overcome the transition that was needed in terms of energy supplies, finding different alternative energy sources, etc.
目标片段
他们既希望与美国的主导，他们希望美国可以主导时局帮助德国渡过能源转型区，找到替代能源供给。
来源片段
But now we're in year three of this war and Germany has been hit very, very hard.
目标片段
但是现在战争已经进入了第三年，德国经济也因此遭到了严重的危机。
来源片段
Yeah, well, that brings us on to the sort of second crisis that Schultz government has been really marked by.
目标片段
在这里，我们要引出舒尔兹政府面临的第二场危机。
来源片段
If you ask the Federation of German Industry, they say 0. 1 percent.
目标片段
如果我们去看德国工业联合会的预期更加悲观，甚至只有0.1%。
来源片段
I mean, it's so close to zero, it could easily dip into the negative. It's still there.
目标片段
换句话说，已经接近零增长了，对吧？随时可能再度转为负增长。
来源片段
But we see in polling the German population, you know, their top either one or two issue is definitely the economy.
目标片段
但是我们去看德国民众，现在最关心的问题就是经济经济不发展，经济停滞了。
来源片段
How does that affect the German economy?
目标片段
所以在这里我们再退一步问这个问题，为什么能源冲击会对德国经济造成如此大的影响？
来源片段
Well, it affected the German economy across the board because it's not just consumers, it's industry, it's everything.
目标片段
全方位的不仅仅是普通消费者，而且一整个德国工业体系都受到了巨大的冲击。
来源片段
And it's an open secret that part of the success of the German economy was that it was running on cheap Russian gas, something that was criticized by European partners and the Americans for a very long time that there was an over-reliance.
目标片段
德国经济的成功部分，依赖于为什么如此依赖于廉价俄罗斯的天然气，这是美国、欧洲这些德国同盟伙伴长期以来批评德国的地方，就是你过度依赖俄罗斯能源。
来源片段
And that's particularly important in Germany because Germany is still a heavily industrialized economy compared to, say, US or UK, France. It's got. . .
目标片段
因为相比于英法美来说，德国是一个出口导向型经济体，它是一个高度工业化的经济体，德国经济的工业占比要高于英国、
来源片段
So it needs cheap energy to produce steel, to produce chemicals, things like that.
目标片段
德国制造业工业需要廉价的能源来生产、钢铁生产、化工产品等工业产品。
来源片段
That first winter after the Russian attack on Ukraine is a huge success story.
目标片段
在俄罗斯袭击乌克兰之后的第一个冬天，它的能源供应稳定性本身其实是一个当时令我身边很多熟悉德国的人，非常就是振奋的一个成功。
来源片段
Germany is bottom of the list in terms of growth as the third largest economy.
目标片段
所以我们看到的是德国作为世界第三大经济体，要么是第三大，要么是第四大。
来源片段
And the OECD countries, these are the most important economic powers in the world.
目标片段
它在OECD经济合作与发展组织成员国里就是全世界最重要的经济大国里，它的增长排名最后，
来源片段
But the government is being blamed for not doing enough to improve, you know, getting through that initial crisis okay maybe, but not doing enough medium to long term to sort out extra high energy costs. Plus also not doing enough to tackle bureaucracy.
目标片段
但是现在人们对于德国政府态度的失望，主要来自于随着战争拖的越来越长，民调开始下降的这个主要谴责是OK战争已经发生好几年了，在中长期内你没有采取足够行动，来面对过高的能源成本，也没有采取足够多的措施来解决德国的官僚问题。
来源片段
For instance, the car industry, which is really super important industry and of course the best known internationally, the car industry was sort of asleep at the wheel on the transition to electric cars and is really struggling on that right now with competition from China.
目标片段
比如说尤其是汽车产业，汽车产业是德国最重要、最国际化的产业。
来源片段
You talk about the German economy. Germany over the last three years has seen its business model collapse.
目标片段
这是我们在讨论能源危机和德国经济状况的时候，必须要讨论的这一点。那就是在过去三年中，德国依赖的商业模式受到了严重的挑战。
来源片段
And that is exactly what you always have to add as well when you talk about the energy crisis. You talk about the German economy. Germany over the last three years has seen its business model collapse. Yes, we had a business model and we've said it before in this podcast. So sorry for anybody who feels like they've heard it before. But I don't think you can stress that enough that the Americans provided security. Now we have to pay for ourselves. Then the Chinese bought our cars. Hey, they're better at electric cars now than we are. And then the Russians provided the cheap gas. And that is also no longer happening.
目标片段
特朗普说，我们要离开北约，美国人不会花钱给你当保镖。德国，俄罗斯也不再给德国提供廉价天然气。因为德国自个儿对俄罗斯实施了经济制裁，对吧？中国在电动汽车方面已经在很多地方超越了德国。所以在这里我们引出第三点，朔尔兹执政期间的危机，那就是信心的危机。前面两点我们可以说舒尔兹难以避免了，我们没有办法直接怪到他身上。但是在这些严重的挑战出现之后，应对问题需要政府具备强大的战略力量、政治战略力量，对吧？
来源片段
The Social Democrats from the centre-left, the Greens, of course, environmentalists, and the Free Democrats, they're called.
目标片段
我们已经说过，社民党来自中左派绿党是一个环保派，而自由民主党、自民党是一个支持商业的政党，
来源片段
And they all had ultimately very different ideas about how you have to deal with these different crises and how to prioritise among them. So this has led to political deadlock.
目标片段
这三个由三党组成的德国联邦政治对于如何面对上面我们描述过的两种重大危机，如何在其中做出优先排序存在着根本不同的观点。这导致了一个又一个政治僵局。
来源片段
So this was, I mean, this was, I mean, there was a dramatic moment going on in the United States, Donald Trump's election, of course. It was a crazy day. And then. Sorry. Olaf Scholz. And you both weren't there. A very dramatic moment. We were in the US. I know you were in the US. We thought the story was there. I know. And then a really equally dramatic moment here in Berlin, really, for German politics, with Olaf Scholz coming out and saying, I'm firing my finance minister. Absolutely. And the words he used. What happened? So who was his finance minister and how did this moment arrive?
目标片段
求求你了，让我们借钱吧。所以说我记得去年11月，特朗普当选的时候，大家都在关心美国，其实德国那会儿也发生了一个很大的对德国内政来说发生了一个很大的动荡，就是在这个僵局维持了一年之后，舒尔兹决定不再忍受。开新闻发布会，宣布要解雇他的自民党财政部长，我们去听舒尔兹这个演讲充满了强硬的态度和沮丧。
来源片段
Can the German government take out more debt to fund high priority projects?
目标片段
当时德国政府内部问题爆发的核心就是针对政府能否通过增加债务来资助最高优先级的项目。
来源片段
And I thought one very striking figure that I saw in a recent poll show was people were asked, is Scholz a strong leader?
目标片段
所以说最近我看到有一个民调问社民党内部的支持者，舒尔兹的选民舒尔兹是一个强有力的领导人吗？
来源片段
Only 16% of people said yes.
目标片段
只有16%的人。
来源片段
And the Conservatives are accusing the SPD and the Greens of essentially having doubled the AFD compared to 2021. Because in 2021, they were at, what, 10%?
目标片段
对于社民党的批评，就是你失去的这10%都送给了极右翼AFD另类选择党对吧？你失去的这群对你失望的人，导致新右翼AFD的支持率比2021年翻了一番。
来源片段
Is that an opportunity that could help Scholz in the lead up to the election? Yes, if you want it really short, because Scholz now needs for Friedrich Merz to make a huge mistake. Another one.
目标片段
但是我觉得现在唯一能够帮助舒尔兹获胜的是他对手Fridrich Metz出现了一个大丑闻。其实这也是舒尔兹在2021年当选的重要原因，就是他当时自己其实民调不佳。
来源片段
He was polling badly. And then Armin Laschet from the Conservative CDU CSU candidate was caught in a gaffe.
目标片段
但是当时的这个保守派候选人保守派的候选人Armin Laschet在2021年德国大选的时候，出现了一个丑闻，导致民调下降。
来源片段
If they choose the social democrats, if they somehow find a way of overcoming the current struggles, then definitely Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, is going to be a member of the next cabinet.
目标片段
德国国防部长Boris Pistorius他一定会成为下一届社民党的内阁成员，还有一个叫做Lars Klingbeit社民党。
来源片段
And the question what being a Social Democrat means in the future hasn't been able to get addressed in opposition. So, yes, it could be a very constructive time for the Social Democrats to regroup and essentially relaunch their bid to remain a Big Ten party because that's the struggle they are in right now. At the same time, our election system is built to force politicians to make compromises. And that's why we have coalition governments pretty much all the time. So, it will be very difficult for the Social Democrats not to say yes if they have even just half or one percentage point more than the Greens.
目标片段
现任党魁，他是40多岁现实主义的一个人。他是目前社民党团结的一股重要势力。在这里，我们最后再次强调，社民党即便失败。德国作为一个议会制政府，他跟美国联邦政府最大的区别就在于赢者不是通吃，对吧？政党不会完全离开政府，他有可能会通过其他方式继续执政。比如说跟保守党联合执政，作为一个低级伙伴，作为一个junior partner,这也是我身边有很多研究政治的人，会觉得议会制政府比联邦制政府更好。