最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段最大的疑点就是他在2021年1月败选给拜登之后，拒绝承认自己败选，试图推翻选举的合法结果，并且带来了2021年1月6日，川粉冲击国会山事件以及特朗普，包括他身边的人，至今不但不愿意认错，而且不愿意承认选举结果，不承认败选事实。这个事件是他作为总统对于美国联邦政府这个行政职位在民主规范中最严重的挑战。因为我们知道所有权力最不稳定的时刻，就是权力交接的时刻，对吧？一个国家政体是否稳定，不管是民主政体帝王制、联邦制一党专政权力交接的危险时刻，能否不受到挑战，
来源片段That can't be just within the normal zigging and zagging of democratic politics. Well, this accounts for the shock effect that many Americans are feeling right now. And it's not just his rhetoric. Here we have to factor in what happened on January 6, 2021. A candidate who had lost the election refused to accept the outcome of the election and authorized a mob to attack the people's house, the Capitol, that he was obligated to protect by a solemn constitutional oath. And what he showed in that moment is that he was willing to put his own welfare above the welfare of the Republic and the sacred document of the Republic, which is the Constitution.
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S1：7 个窗口回退
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It's a sentiment encoded in our DNA since the founding of our republic. Every few decades, a figure emerges to direct popular rage at the people in charge. In this respect, Donald Trump's extraordinary comeback represents a return to the politics of populism. It's not a philosophy. It's not even a movement. It's really more of a vibe. Populism pits the people against the powerful, the best of us against the rest of us, and
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第三点，我的观察是对于美国这个国家来说，特朗普2.0意味着民主规范的困境。这个困境我觉得用最广义的方式在历史的角度描述，就是党派政治的消亡和个人政治的崛起。那如果你是一个讨厌官僚制度，党派机器的人，你会觉得党派政治的消亡和个人政治的崛起是一件好事。如果你是一个厌恶特朗普，因为各种原因厌恶他的人，我们还有另外一种描述这个困境的方式，你会把个人政治的崛起描绘成强人政治的崛起，对吧？
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Populists comprise the early founders of the Congress of Industrialized Organizations. At the same time, the Christian scolds who brought us prohibition were also populists. Populists sometimes championed deeply on democratic ideas. Populists can also emerge on the left. After all, what is Bernie Sanders if not a populist? Everybody here happened to know how much Amazon paid in taxes last year. Zero! As I said, American populism is not really an ideology.
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但是我刚才说这个诡异之处在于他的阵营中，还有另外一群民粹主义者，就是号称代表广大人民群众利益的人，这些人中有左有右对吧？所以我们看到的是班农和社会民主党人一个极左翼的桑德斯，他们在这件事情上站在一起。桑德斯是美国民主党中的社会民主主义者。在最近很多辩论中，桑德斯和特朗普阵营中的这些民粹拥躺表达同情。
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Populists sometimes championed deeply on democratic ideas. Populists can also emerge on the left. After all, what is Bernie Sanders if not a populist? Everybody here happened to know how much Amazon paid in taxes last year. Zero! As I said, American populism is not really an ideology. It's more of a mood. It's the desire to fire the bosses, to crash the country club and ask the snobs sincerely. You think you're better than me? So as unique as the presidential inauguration of 2025 seems, we have in fact seen populists
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但是他们身上完全缺失的是，在20世纪初铁路大亨身上的那种财富等于责任。我们要如何行使这个责任？你可以说是一种道德情怀，我觉得他们更像是19世纪的那些重商主义的冒险企业家，所以而不是20世纪美国杜金时代的铁路大亨。我听过有一些政治评论员说，尤其是那些认为特朗普真正的民主支持来自于美国攻心阶层的评论员，就像是我在第64级播客，特朗普选民都是什么人，那里面讨论过同样的话题，那些政治评论员说，第一个阵营班农代表的才是支持特朗普的攻心阶层的声音。
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He rose from nothing to become a great general. He was the first man to represent the state of Tennessee in Congress. His adoring troops called him old hickory, and his enemies derided him as bigamist and a tyrant in waiting. His name was Andrew Jackson, the guy who's still on the $20 bill. If it feels like 2025 is uncharted waters, perhaps Andrew Jackson's path to the White House would be the best guide to what Trump's second term might look like. Because there are eerie parallels. Donald Trump's presidents came to power insisting that the previous election had been stolen
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在这里我的关注点不是中国俄罗斯这种从来不是真正意义上的美国盟友，而是二战之后，在过去100年中，美国真正最重要的盟友。所谓的西方联盟，对于他们来说，特朗普时代意味着什么。因为在特朗普第一任2016年的时候，全世界所有国家都不知道要如何面对这样角色。在左翼人士的眼中，特朗普是他们对保守派刻板印象的化身，他粗俗无知不读书，没有历史常识。公开表示要起诉政治对手，公开表示公开威胁，要处决自己的参谋长联席会议主席。
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A lot of people don't know. We did much better in 2020. We won. We won. We did win. There's a rigged election. That was Donald Trump in 2024, sounding a lot like Andrew Jackson 200 years earlier. Trump supporters called their doomed movement to block the certification of the election, stop the steal. Jacksonians railed against what they called the corrupt bargain. 1824, the 10th election of the American experiment is underway.
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那就是我们是谁？我们的忠诚度在哪里？我们要成为怎样的国家？OK第三个观察特朗普时代，意味着民主规范的困境。我觉得对于很多不一定讨厌特朗普，但是不是川粉的人来说，在他们心中，特朗普这个人作为一个政治家最大的问题。最大的疑点就是他在2021年1月败选给拜登之后，拒绝承认自己败选，试图推翻选举的合法结果，
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Jackson ignored that ruling and ordered the removal of the Cherokees anyway. It was the gravest threat to the Constitution in the young republic's history. This was a populist leader crashing up against the American system of government with all of its checks and balances. Eventually, Jackson was shamed into issuing a proclamation that stated the Supreme Court was the final arbiter of the Constitution. One season echo of this threat in Donald Trump's refusal to accept the rulings of the courts after he lost the 2020 election. Populist indignation can lead presidents to ignore the constitutional restraints on their
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最大的疑点就是他在2021年1月败选给拜登之后，拒绝承认自己败选，试图推翻选举的合法结果，并且带来了2021年1月6日，川粉冲击国会山事件以及特朗普，包括他身边的人，至今不但不愿意认错，而且不愿意承认选举结果，不承认败选事实。这个事件是他作为总统对于美国联邦政府这个行政职位在民主规范中最严重的挑战。因为我们知道所有权力最不稳定的时刻，就是权力交接的时刻，对吧？一个国家政体是否稳定，不管是民主政体帝王制、联邦制一党专政权力交接的危险时刻，能否不受到挑战，
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the bigwigs in that room on that evening back in 2016. These events are supposed to be pageants of bipartisanship. The Republican and Democratic candidates make self-deprecating jokes and tuxedos and evening gowns for Catholic charity. But Trump chose instead to drop the mask and tell it like it is. He was once in their club, but now he's the barbarian at the gate. And this says something about populism. Because as effective as Jackson and Trump were as campaigners, they were better at destroying an old order their voters despise than building something in its place.
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特朗普，他是一个共和党内部秩序的挑战者和瓦解者。但是在2016年同样比希拉里更左的桑德斯没有成功夺权挑战，党派机器没有成功。因为民主党内的党派机器比共和党来的更强劲和稳固。对于很多川粉来说，这是一件好事。最终他们说我想要看到的是一个由个人一个真实的活生生的人，领袖的领导的政治，而不是一个党派的口舌、一个官僚，一个党派利益的代言人，对吧？
S2：4 个窗口回退
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And I think we can't exclude that possibility with Trump, that there will be reckless things done in his administration, that he will undo the support he has gained, that it will become clear that a lot of Americans voting for him were not voting for the radical agenda that he may implement, and that he will be finished in 2028 and a progressive march from the Democratic Party will resume. That's a different kind of ordinary. And we can't exclude that possibility. It's just impossible to know right now which future is going to hold for the United States. I was struck that the electoral map looks pretty similar, the results of this election, to 2004. Few states have switched. Pennsylvania is different, Michigan and Wisconsin. And then in the southwest, there are a couple of states that are now Democratic states that were Republican.
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在这场现实政治中，玩好权力平衡的游戏2025年的世界格局和2016年的世界格局是完全不一样的。曾经的西方联盟国家可以依赖的他们那种和美国之间二战以来的清和力已经开始严重的消失了。我关注的英国政治领域已经有很多在当年支持2016年支持英国脱欧的人开始讨论。英国下一步要怎么做，对吧？英国在脱欧那年面临的世界格局跟今天完全不一样。那个时候英国和美国关系水乳交融稳固无比，根本就不可能有结绑的可能性。
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Clearly, this is an election that turned a lot on immigration, and questions of immigration, and also a lot of voters' unhappiness about it. Do you think with that, we are outside the ordinary bounds of American politics and American political history? I'm very conscious, as I know you are, that American politics has had in its history some strong nativist movements and nativist moments. And some of that has been, you know, the politics around it has been pretty brutal. But this man is about to move into the White House. Do you think we're in uncharted territory here on immigration? It depends on the scale of the deportations. You're right to note that America has a robust history of exclusion, discrimination, even brutality toward immigrants.
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因为某种原因流离失所来到欧洲，欧洲目前面临的前所未有的移民危机。他们可以说是美国造成的对吧？当然我这个播客的绝大多数政治关注点在美国，但是我们也评价过英国大选，评价过法国、德国政治。我们在讨论这些西方国家移民问题的时候，会发现欧洲移民问题跟美国完全不同，而且从他们视角来说，这一切的罪魁祸首是美国。既然美国不愿意负担起世界警察的责任，那我们凭什么要给你擦屁股？
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When Lincoln was elected, his opponent said, if you elect this guy, you will kill the Republic. Turned out to be true. But as Lincoln pointed out, not because he killed it, because they killed it, but nonetheless. But it's hard to think of a parallel. I mean, he was described by his opponents as a fascist, and he won. That can't be just within the normal zigging and zagging of democratic politics. Well, this accounts for the shock effect that many Americans are feeling right now. And it's not just his rhetoric. Here we have to factor in what happened on January 6, 2021. A candidate who had lost the election refused to accept the outcome of the election and authorized a mob to attack the people's house, the Capitol, that he was obligated to protect by a solemn constitutional oath.
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我觉得对于很多不一定讨厌特朗普，但是不是川粉的人来说，在他们心中，特朗普这个人作为一个政治家最大的问题。最大的疑点就是他在2021年1月败选给拜登之后，拒绝承认自己败选，试图推翻选举的合法结果，并且带来了2021年1月6日，川粉冲击国会山事件以及特朗普，包括他身边的人，至今不但不愿意认错，而且不愿意承认选举结果，不承认败选事实。这个事件是他作为总统对于美国联邦政府这个行政职位在民主规范中最严重的挑战。
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And I can't point to a historical moment where I can say, yes, there was a man like Trump who came into office about whom people were terrified. And yet things worked out okay. There have been candidates in American history, politicians, who were equally scary to Trump, but they have not become the nominees of the party. And they have not been elected president of the United States. Why do you think he was so much more successful at peeling off some Democratic Party supporters than the Democrats were peeling off Republican supporters? So we were told a lot, we've often been told that there are very few floating voters, that the positions are very rigid. This age of partisanship means that most people belong to a tribe and aren't switching.
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特朗普，他是一个共和党内部秩序的挑战者和瓦解者。但是在2016年同样比希拉里更左的桑德斯没有成功夺权挑战，党派机器没有成功。因为民主党内的党派机器比共和党来的更强劲和稳固。对于很多川粉来说，这是一件好事。最终他们说我想要看到的是一个由个人一个真实的活生生的人，领袖的领导的政治，而不是一个党派的口舌、一个官僚，一个党派利益的代言人，对吧？
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I think the regime is unraveling anyway, that version of liberal democracy, that late 20th century version, which did depend on various ways of doing politics that are probably now outmoded. You know, we're in a networked world.
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所以从这点来说，我们也可以看到一个相对稳定的自19世纪以来，绝大多数西方民主国家运行了200年的政治制度。现代政治制度，就是这个党派制度受到了挑战。
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And I wonder if it had been a secret vote, a bit like the secret vote that took place that chose Senator John Thune as the Senate majority leader after this election that Donald Trump didn't want, but because it was a secret vote, Republicans defied him. If it had been a secret vote in that impeachment process, do you think actually Donald Trump would have been convicted by the Senate?
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我觉得对于很多不一定讨厌特朗普，但是不是川粉的人来说，在他们心中，特朗普这个人作为一个政治家最大的问题。最大的疑点就是他在2021年1月败选给拜登之后，拒绝承认自己败选，试图推翻选举的合法结果，
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That is, in many ways, it seems to me the key to understanding American political culture. But what happens in America, the cause of this revolution, everything we do in America, our purpose is transcendental meaning. We are providentially blessed in some important way. The cause of America is the cause of mankind. What happens here has universal significance. But when when it comes out, is there a sense in which as well as enthusing the revolution, inspiring kind of an upsurge of backing for republicanism.
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但是在这里我还想要退一步说，其实民主规范在美国的困境有着一个更大的在我心中更大、更深层次的更重要的体现。我们可以用这句话来概括，那就是personification of politics政治的个人化，或者说政治的重新个人化。因为政治曾经就是个人化的，而政治的个人化意味着什么？意味着党派的退化党派机器，不知道大家有没有听过这个词party machine党派机器，