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目标片段他提出了两点。第一点，他认为自由民主可以最好的满足物质进步的需求。第二点，自由民主可以满足认可的需求。如果自由民主能够获胜，就是因为这两个原因，那他就说明他这个获胜是存在偶然性的。我觉得他完全没有真正的理由获胜。这个历史的终结点就不应该建立在就不应该给予自由民主。因为一套不具有普世意义的民主主义意识形态可以同样的满足，甚至有可能可以更好的满足。福山在历史的终结里宣称自由民主为什么能够获胜？
来源片段But perhaps the reading of the 20th century, it's not wrong as far as that goes. So he's right in the sense that this may be an end of history, but only because history has ended many, many times before. And of course, that means he's wrong. It's also true that when he tries to flesh out why liberal democracy has won, he says it can meet two basic human needs in a way that no rival system can match. And those two needs are a need for material progress. I mean, a need to be better off in various material ways. And he thinks the history of the 20th century has shown that liberal democracies are quite good at meeting people's expectations to lead materially better lives, but also the need for recognition that it gives human beings a sense of personal dignity, that they mean something as individuals.
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来源片段
And I also want to talk about that. And then let's see what the relationship is between the two. But let's start with Fukuyama for a bit of context. So I don't know, I remember it, I was a student, but I'm guessing you maybe are too young. Do you remember the vogue of that phrase at the time, the late 80s, early 90s? When did you first come across it? I think I came across it when I went to the US for university. So that was at the end of 90s. So about maybe like a decade after. I remember introduction to global politics class was set up Fukuyama, Huntington, the clash of civilizations. And then there was a third article by, I don't know if you remember Robert Kaplan, the coming anarchy.
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你们知道福山的想法听过也不确定具体他在说什么，然后也忘了他具体是在什么时候流行的，也不知道为什么历史终结论，当今的生命力如何。所以出于这个契机，今天随便出一期播客讨论一下福山。首先让我们来介绍这个在90年代美国学界占据主流的思想历史终结论。这句话究竟是什么意思？不管你现在是不是觉得他是在放狗屁天真的满嘴胡说。但是不可否认的是，他在这个整整差不多15年左右，美国的主流思想学界非常具有影响力。乃至于我上大学的时候，我们在课上也仍然会提到福山。
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And then there was the Brexit Trump year 2016. That was another one, the invasion of Ukraine. I mean, there are lots of points where people might say the illusion of the end of history was exploded. Is there one of those that speaks to you in particular? I never thought personally that it was the end of history. But in terms of the general consensus, like that feeling, you know, the war on terror, and I think the financial crisis, it really started undermining this idea, I think, globally that the West, you know, because I re-read Fukuyama's writings in preparation for this podcast, and he opens with this idea, it's the triumph of the West, the Western idea.
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历史终结论的事件，当然是第一个是911，第二个是2007到08年的金融危机。然后第三个是2016年，特朗普当选英国脱欧。这三个案件是最主要的，在瓦解历史终结论。这套观点说服力的事件，我觉得我还会加上第四个，那就是俄乌战争，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰一整个全球时局在过去30年的走向都在不断的打破历史终结的幻想。不管怎么样，我们没有办法否认这个观点。这个想法整整15年的影响力。其次我想说的是，它确实是一个比较有意思的想法。
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If you read even the original article, he says very clearly, I don't mean that big historical events have come to an end.
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如果你读过原文，福山，一开始就很清楚的强调说，他不是在说重大历史事件已经不会再发生，这个世界上不会再有大事发生，
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Yeah, actually, you know, he has an article in History and Theory in 1994, where he revisits the end of history argument.
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福山在1994年一个学术杂志History and Theory历史与理论杂志上又发表了一篇文章，
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And he's in this, you know, second section of that essay, he equates, you know, universal history with economic modernization. In fact, he says, not much changed until early modernity.
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在这篇文章的第二部分，福山提出世界历史的发展等于经济现代化历史怎么定义历史？对于他来说是经济现代化的历史。
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I agree that I also want to be fair to him. And the book, The End of History, which he published in 1992, it's still a really interesting book.
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这了，我们真牛逼啊，这是我们听到历史终结论的一个自然而然的想法。但是福山在1992年出版的这本书里面，还有后半句话呢，还有集最后之人，对吧？
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And the trouble with liberal democracy, he says, writing in 1992, and some of the examples he gives are things like the European Union, which he thinks this is a model for the future.
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比如说他在92年就写到举例，欧盟，他说，未来欧盟就是未来政治的典范。什么意思？
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And it's kind of dull. It's bureaucratic. It's procedural. It will end up trivializing politics.
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这是一个官僚主义的程序性的法位机构。这些机构会使政治变得微不足道，自由民主社会中的人们会感到空虚。
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I mean, if you think of what is the Chinese political system offering as a rival to liberal democracy, it is not, I think, a universalizing ideology anymore.
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随便举个例子，中国政治制度它跟自由主义不一样，它的根基就不是一种普世的意识形态。
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And it seems, for the reasons that you said, in a world in which liberal democracy looks pretty hypocritical, you know, its respect is only respect for certain people and not respect for other people. It looks quite powerful. It's not like everyone else has given up on trying to give people material progress, and at the same time, recognizing that human beings crave personal meaning and to feel that their lives count for something. What's gone is trying to frame it as a modern universalizing ideological project of how to organize the whole of human society. I mean, that seems to me the thing that, yes, there isn't a rival at that level, but there are lots of rivals at the more immediate level of how individual societies are organized.
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第二部分关乎尊严。为什么人类在物质条件改善之上还需要尊严？因为所有人都渴望个人意义，都渴望感到自己的生命有价值。福山认为在这个层面，自由民主没有竞争对手。虽然说自由主义不给人的生命设立价值，但是它给予了每一个人追求自己价值最大的空间。批评这一套没有自卫能力的自由主义观点的理论，相信大家都已经知道很多了什么福科的这种后现代什么权力是一种内在相互作用的关系，
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Yeah, I guess it was American because one of the things I was most struck by when I first went to the US is how nobody knew anything about history, nor cared to know. It's a very ahistorical place, or pretends to be.
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他们跟我说，因为在欧洲人眼中，美国是一个不在乎历史的国家，每一个去美国学界的欧洲人都会震惊于了解历史的人，有多么少关心历史的人，有多么少福山提出的这个论点。
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And Fukuyama makes this argument, the world is going to be divided into two parts, if he says historical and post-historical.
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福山提出的这套历史终结论，他不是基于历史之上的，他把世界分成了两部分，一个是世界历史部分，
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I mean, I don't know now whether it's an American mindset, but it may itself be a fairly brief period in American history that people really believe there was an escape. I mean, there's always been in American history, a strand of politics which wants to escape by just turning inward, but that's different.
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他说哇这是一个很美国人的想法，美国人给自己整了一条出路。纵观美国历史欧洲人，他们说你从一个欧洲学派的视角来说，会觉得美国都有这个冲动，就是希望把自己的国家从历史中跳出来，
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So history is a kind of problem solving mechanism and that's part of Fukuyama's argument. I think that we are at the end of history because we have reached a moment of ultimate problem solution.
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他们把历史当做一个解决问题的工具。而福山的这套历史终结论，也是把历史当做一个解决问题的工具解决完了这个问题之后，我们就没有历史了。
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So I'm enough of a kind of modern person to associate cyclical views of history with the thing that modernity left behind. And maybe this is a mistake. I don't think I fully imbibed a kind of modern view that it's all progressive and teleological and heading somewhere. But I tend to think of a cyclical view of history, the sort of rise and fall and rise again and fall again. And we've been here before view as a pre-modern view. And that's how most human societies tended to think, not all by any means, but tended to think about historical change, that you should never get carried away and somehow think you'd move beyond what is actually an endless turning of the wheel.
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这种对于人的信仰，创建了很多现代的奇迹，当然也创建了很多现代的悲剧。我不是想要否定这种对于人的信仰，但是确实过于沉浸于这种对于人的信仰，我们通常会慢慢瓦解掉，什么，慢慢瓦解掉一种谦卑，一种意识到人力有时候可能战胜不了天命的谦卑。这种谦卑的瓦解给现代社会带来了很多改变。其中一个改变就是为什么在现代社会，我们再也生产不了那些拥有神性的艺术人的矛盾之处就在于艺术史不断地告诉我们，
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Well, Kim, I'm very interested in how you're going to answer this question, given where you're situated. But I do want to say, at least among the academic books that I've read that have been published more recently and that kind of have absorbed this critique of the extant historiography of conservatism, I think in particular of John Huntington's book, Far Right Vanguard, that book, first of all, I loved it.
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播客的后半段，我想要提两个，我觉得很有意思的东西。第一个是你可以说是一个来自于右边的反驳，就是同时期的一个现实主义者Samuel Huntington亨廷顿如何反驳福山提出的历史终结论。
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I don't think that kind of attitude, certainly it's not helpful politically, and it also is not intellectually. As a scholar, you just can't have that kind of extreme sense of dismissiveness morally and politically towards the people that you're writing about and exploring. It seems to be a permission structure for in curiosity. Yeah, it's just saying we're right, they're wrong, and they're stupid and ignorant and can't be part of this politics. And in some ways, the danger of it is just that it reproduces all of the very tendencies that lead to the politics in the first place.
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到达历史节点之后，政治就瓦解了，政治就没有必要存在了历史终结之前和历史终结之后的政治，在我的心中不可能在根深蒂固的层面变得更好，或者是变得更糟，政治也不可能因此消失。因为人的政治性就是人性的一部分。换句话说，压迫不会因此消失不公，也不会因此消失。我的意思也不是说这种对于正义的渴望就是可笑的幼稚的渴望，恰恰相反，对于正义的渴望本身也是人性的一部分，这就是人性本身。那些想要整全球无产阶级大革命的马克思主义者，这种渴望本身也恰恰是人性的独特和伟大之处的体现。