最高相似度示例 · 非人工确认结果
目标片段我在上上一期播客中讨论了，为什么民主党叙事让选民觉得不接地气。其中有另外一种解读方式，就是他们仍然被困在08年奥巴马的那套叙事中，他没有进行什么特别的改变，我们再去看共和党。为什么我说共和党比民主党更加进步？你只要看看共和党现在的这些冉冉升起的星星就知道了，这些人在九年前根本就不存在。我刚才说的这个2016年，共和党建制派反对特朗普的那群人Jet BushLiz CheneyScott Walker罗姆尼，他们的明星光环在今年已经被一群全新的议程带着全新议程、全新叙事、全新活力，全新主张全新党派政策的共和党星星光芒完全被抢走了。
来源片段They're not identifiable along that axis. And they're failing in a sense to show the public what it would mean to vote for the Democrats, to vote for the Republicans, other than to say what it would mean is the other people wouldn't win. And I think in that sense, there is a failure here to appeal to the imagination of the public. It's not the case that people are stuck in party identities. There are a lot of Americans who are going to vote this year for a party they did not vote for 10 years ago. That kind of change is happening. The trouble is it's happening in a way that remains bifurcated, that remains at 50-50, in part because the big question is really a yes or no question, rather than a question about the future, about the range of issues that might shape people's lives.
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来源片段
So you've got one force or set of forces that seems to be pushing towards Republicans, one force or set of forces that tends to be pushing towards Democrats, and I think my overall analysis is both of these are real. I think the thermostatic public opinion thing is clearly real.
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今天我想要来讨论一个炸裂的想法，一个观察一个我对于当代美国两个政党的观察，那就是我认为当今美国的左派民主党比右派共和党来得更加保守。你也可以换一句话说，共和党比民主党更加进步。
S1：3 个窗口回退
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And the Democratic turnout there compared to the Obama midterms, it almost doubled. It was insane, right? Now, relative to this election, I think that's part of it. I think Republicans are uncomfortable and afraid with Democrats being in control of the federal government. I think that's true. I also think at the same time as it's true, and it was a real force here, and this was another high turnout election, Republicans weren't as afraid as I think they were under Obama. I think one of the ways Republican messaging has failed generally in the last couple of years is they've failed to make Joe Biden as unacceptable and as scary as they made Obama and Hillary.
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可以独当一面的星星，但是民主党高层至今仍然是奥巴马在2008年带进来的那群高层，我们等一下会详细分析。但是这些最基础的框架，我认为证明了美国的左派，民主党现在是一个比美国共和党更加保守的党派。如果你问我是什么时候开始发现民主党比共和党更加保守，我会认为，一切的改变是在2016年大选的初选。在2016年，民主党和共和党都出现了一个反建制的激进的民粹候选人民主党的桑德斯Bernie Sanders和共和党的特朗普。
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But while I can see that, like, you know, it's going to be a slightly weird conversation if I put the most hardcore socialist or the most hardcore social justice person in the diner next to the middle-of-the-road guy in Ohio, like, I think that guy in Ohio also looked at some of the people the Republican Party was putting up and just thought, what a bunch of weirdos, right? I think it's now that this, like, likability thing, for better words, is a Republican problem now, not a Democratic problem. I think that's actually more what drove the candidate effect in that. . . And I think Democrats, by and large, have got better with it. Like, the candidates we put forward, with some big exceptions, but the candidates we put forward are generally, like, quite likable people.
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当今美国左派为何比右派更加保守？我认为他们的政党建构政党建制上，民主党是一个更加传统的这个掌权的，仍然是传统的精英，而共和党已经在特朗普以来进行了一个大洗牌。我们去看民主党现在晋升到高层的，在民主党中长势的人仍然很多，绝大多数都是奥巴马带进来的。这些受过高等教育的民主党精英，他们不是精英阶层内部的异见人士。我在上上一期播客中讨论了，为什么民主党叙事让选民觉得不接地气。
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You know, I saw a few threads online of people commenting, and I was particularly interested in people who had voted in referendums in order to make abortion still legal. There was one in Kansas, but who also had voted Republican down the ticket. And people would ask, okay, is that if you want abortion to be legal, why are you voting Republican down the ticket? Inflation. It's all just inflation, isn't it? And it sort of occurred to me, if you asked that person what is inflation, I don't think they'd have an answer.
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我更愿意谈论性别的流动性，我更愿意谈论多元化，我更愿意谈论削减警察经费现实。啪啪的打我脸的时候，我发现老百姓更加关心，通货膨胀，更加关心移民，更加关心无止境的战争。于是，美国的民主党和主流媒体，对于这种关心的态度是什么？他们老百姓对于通货膨胀的关心，对于移民的关心，对于战争的关心是错误的。我来告诉你，我用数据来告诉你应该怎么关心。这是我们在CNN MSNBC上看到美国主流媒体的态度，中国太多的知识精英，他们全盘吸收的就是这种态度。
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I think with a lot of this, what you've sort of seen, and it's not only centrists, actually, there's these people on the left who are sort of in this state, is you've seen prophecy evolving in the face of failure. So, you know, I'm just sort of riffing off my New Testament episodes, but I think one of the things I've tried to argue is what a lot of what you're seeing in the New Testament is a prophecy that gets contradicted by real-world events and doesn't abandon its core ideas, but just kind of evolves into a new form.
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我感觉我就像在跟饥饿游戏中住在首都的那些人说话一样，他们有一种与世隔绝的孤立感，他们并没有办法适应首都之外的世界正在发生怎样的变化？当然这只是他自己的一个看法吧，我也不认识什么民主党的高层，我只是觉得这个反应在某种程度上也印证了我在这个播客谈到现在的事情。
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So, you know, in other words, if you lose an election by two points, you don't think, oh, we need to reinvent the whole party, you think, oh, we just need to drive base turnout a bit more, so let's just make sure we really hit our core messaging again. Because of that, neither party really changes platform, and as a result, the coalitions don't change, so it stays closely divided. Okay, that's a story I've heard a lot of times. Everything about that story is wrong. The party platforms have changed quite a lot over the last few decades. We've had a few decades now of closely divided politics, and it keeps getting closer.
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大学存在是为了提供教育，还是为了灌输思想？如果是教育的话，是怎样的教育？我觉得今天的美国处在一个清算的时刻，一整个左派必须要闷心自问你，他们想要推进的进步进程，为什么变成了一个强大而保守的、不会变动的猛兽。传统民主党的政治联盟已经被人偷家了，他们必须要考虑的是要建立怎样新的联盟，而不是继续拿着一个用了十几年的叙事，在那继续胡说八道的哀嚎，说现实辜负了我选民配不上我。
S2：3 个窗口回退
来源片段
controversial issues and, you know, sort of allowing us how some of the criticisms of the Democratic Party might have a point, that is anathema, right? That is basically what I call the Fox News fallacy drives a lot of this. If something is being mentioned by conservatives, if a critique is being made by Fox News, if people are arguing illegal immigration is a big problem, crime is a big problem, maybe in fact there are just two biological sexes, whatever. I mean, there's a lot of things you could pick on to argue with the Democrats at this point, or maybe we're going too far in the direction of, you know, sort of basing our economic program around fighting climate change, and maybe cheap energy is actually like really important.
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大家好，欢迎来到读书不成零。今天我想要来讨论一个炸裂的想法，一个观察一个我对于当代美国两个政党的观察，那就是我认为当今美国的左派民主党比右派共和党来得更加保守。你也可以换一句话说，共和党比民主党更加进步。这听起来可能让你觉得有点神经病，这是一个悖论。今天我要提出三点，我的观察。
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Because they really are where the persuadables are fundamentally concentrated and where the discontent for the Democrats is most severe. You can get affluent college educated professional to continue voting for you regardless of whether they have a clue about what to do with the economy because they're on your side culturally. That's how they cast their vote. But if you're going to reach, you know, more median American voter, median working class voter, you have to figure out how to convince them that you have a way forward on these really big issues. We call them jump balls in our report. And then that's really, that's kind of the big game of this coalition broadening dynamic that we think, you know, should be more of a big deal these days.
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是科学领域经济领域，硅谷各个行业的领袖，掌握了资源的全方位的精英，而且这些人还是知识上的精英。在这里我想说的是，我在这个播客中，对于知识精英的定义，是接受过大学教育的人。不管你在中国还是美国，只要你有本科学位，你就是知识精英，你去看社交媒体上支持民主党的人，对吧？中国人对特朗普恨之入股的清一色，都是拥有大学学位的知识精英。在美国最富有的十个县中，排名前十的最有钱的县中，有八个是深蓝投票，支持民主党的县。
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It's just that, you know, there's been enough people changing their mind in opposite directions that each election has turned out to be closed. I mean, one sort of less polite way of putting this point, picking up on what we've been saying, is that each party has been so shit that the other party was able to get away with being equally shit. So I really admired your report for that historical insight and it really sort of walks us through the different shifting coalitions at different times in a way that is very readable and engaging and quite thorough and helped me think through this issue. The other thing you do, as you've alluded to a couple of times, is a big survey where you look at a bunch of the issues that turn out not to be 50-50 issues, but 70-30 issues, sometimes 80-20 issues, and yet ones where each party on some of these counts is on the wrong side of it.
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没有区别，那就是美国人民配不上哈里斯，美国人民过于智障，美国人民能够轻易的相信右翼的谎言。美国选民配不上美国政府。我看到有一个主播就在得出了上面这个结论，然后被人狂吵了之后，连夜又做了另外一期播客。那个最新播客的简介也很有意思。他说上一期分析大选的内容，大家不太接受这一期我用更多的数据来说服大家。其实这就是我们刚才说的这些美国主流精英媒体一模一样的态度，对吧？困在一套高高在上的叙事中，坚信我这套叙事的正确性，坚信世界需要被我的叙事来启蒙。
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Republicans have gained new voters, and they're very proud of that, and they'll point you to it. And it looks like Donald Trump could win 15% of the black vote.
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在特朗普获得的选票中，30岁以下的选民的表现，创下了过去20年的共和党新高。我们看到的是美国选民，他们想要讨论的真实的新话题是什么？
来源片段
And if you look at the moderate to conservative white college graduates in our survey and in others, it's very clear that their positions are actually not very consistent with the sort of center of gravity of where the Democratic Party is coming from at this point. They're energy realists. They're moderates on immigration. They're moderates on crime. They're not really enamored of racial and gender ideology. But they vote for the Democrats nonetheless because they hate Trump. And they think, again, he's an irresponsible populist. So you sand off the rough edges on that or just get someone else in there who can appeal to moderate to conservative white college graduates. And all of a sudden, you've got the makings of a solid majority if you keep your burgeoning working class base.
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所以他们在2020年4年前提名了一个最传统、最保守民主党代表了最保守民主党主张的一个传统候选人、最年长的民主党人，这是最接近传统民主党工人阶级的工人基础的这个选民。他们当时认为回到原来的温和派就可以是新民粹主义右翼的解药。也就是说，他们把特朗普视为一种异常现象，我们只要把这个人赶走，就可以回到原来了，就可以回到两党的建制派。但是我觉得这次大选明显证明了特朗普不是一个异常2020年才是一个异常。